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000 FXUS63 KIND 291048 AFDIND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 645 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2008 .AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS MODEL TIME SECS AND SATELLITE TRENDS FAVOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PD WITH ONLY SOME PASSING CI. LOW DEW PTS IN THE MID 20S WL PREVENT FOG THIS MRNG...AND ALTHOUGH WINDS WL BE LGT TO CALM TNGT AS BROAD AREA OF SFC HIGH PRES MOVES TO THE LWR OH VLY AND GULF STATES...DEW PTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE ENOUGH FOR FOG TOMORROW NGT. FINALLY...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MIXING FAVORING KEEPING GUSTS TO 20 KTS AROUND TODAY. HOWEVER...WINDS WL DROP OFF LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC HIGH PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS UPR LOW OFF THE NE COAST AND UPR RDG OVR THE CENTRAL US. IR SAT LOOP SHOWS CLR SKIES OVR THE SE FA WITH BKN-OVC SKIES ACRS THE NE FROM CLOUDS OFF THE LAKE. TEMPS WERE IN THE MID 30S WITH DEWPTS IN THE LOW 20S AND 5-10KT WINDS OUT OF THE W. FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TEMPS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PATRN SO WL USE A BLEND. GUIDANCE VERY SIMILAR EXCEPT THU NT LOWS SO WL USE A MAV/MET MIX. TODAY...SFC HIGH BLDS CLOSER. PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS SO WINDS WILL ALSO. WL STILL SEE SOME CLOUDS OFF THE LAKE IN THE NE FA PER H8 WIND DIRECTION AND TEMPERATURE AS WELL AS CU RULE BUT ELSEWHERE EXPECT SKIES TO BE SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 50S. TONIGHT...CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH IS OVERHEAD. SOME WAA AT H8 AND THOSE TEMPS MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS WILL COUNTERACT THIS AND SET UP A STRONG SFC INVERSION. THIS SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO AROUND OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. WITH MUCH OF THE FA ALREADY EXPERIENCING A HARD FREEZE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF THE REST OF THE FA HITTING HARD FREEZE CRITERIA YET THIS MORNING WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FREEZE PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME. THU AND THU NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW CLEAR SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS. HIGHS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOW 60S. ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE LOWS WERE SEVERAL DEGREES APART...A 50/50 MAV/MET BLEND AROUND 40 MATCHED UP WELL WITH BOTH NAM AND GFS H8 TEMPS AND MOCLR SKIES. A FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRI/FRI NT BUT LOOKS WEAK AND DRY. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS TO WASH OUT OVR INDIANA AS IT APPROACHES THE HIGH OVR THE SE US. RDG REBUILDS OVR THE AREA AND LOOKS LIKE NEXT CHC FOR PRECIP WON/T BE UNTIL AT LEAST TUE/TUE NT SO WL KEEP ENTIRE FCST DRY AT THIS TIME. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FREEZE WARNING ALL AREAS THROUGH 9 AM EDT. && $$ AVIATION...MK PUBLIC...CP
