Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
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000 FXUS63 KIND 251841 AFDIND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 240 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2008 .DISCUSSION... FCST FOCUS ON WINDS AND TEMPS. UPPER TROUGH IS LIFTING NE AWAY FROM THE REGION WHILE A STRONG UPPER JET IS DIVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS ACROSS ND INTO MT WITH A INITIAL PACIFIC COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS MN INTO KS. GUIDANCE IS AGAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO BASIC FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE WILL LEAN TOWARD A BLEND FOR MAX TEMPS SUN AND COLDER THAN ALL GUIDANCE MON/TUES. NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED BEYOND WEDS. TONIGHT/SUN...STRONG WAA WILL DEVELOP ALOFT AS THE INTENSE UPPER AND MID JET APPROACH. TEMPS ARE ALREADY COOL THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL ONLY HAVE TO FALL SEVERAL DEGREES TO REACH GOING LOWS. FEEL THAT OVERNIGHT TEMPS MAY BECOME STEADY AFTER MIDNIGHT. BY SUN...850MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL SLIDE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE COLD FRONT AT 850MB FCST TO SURGE INTO THE AREA BY MIDDAY PROVIDING CAA ALOFT AND LIMITING HIGHS. ROUGH ESTIMATE OF HIGHS BASED OFF OF A MAX MIX TO 850MB SUGGEST UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH. WINDS ATOP THE MIXING LAYER BY MIDDAY WILL APPROACH 40KTS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FCST TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH. WE WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR SUN ACROSS THE NORTH AND LET LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE WHETHER THIS NEEDS TO BE ADJUSTED. SUN NIGHT/MON...ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z MON WHICH WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER BURST OF GUSTY WINDS. STRONG CAA WILL OCCUR AND DESPITE THE MIXING WE STILL EXPECT LOWS TO DROP TOWARD 30 DEGREES. HIGHS MON BASED OFF OF 850MB TEMPS SUGGEST MID 40S AT BEST BOTH MON AND TUES SO WILL LOWER FCST NUMBERS TO BELOW GUIDANCE. AS MENTIONED...NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED BEYOND TUES WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BACK TOWARD OR ABOVE AVG FOR DAYTIME HIGHS BY THU/FRI. && .AVIATION... DISCUSSION FOR 251800Z TAFS. A COLD AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A SITUATION FAVORABLE FOR MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON. BY 20-21Z THIS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK UP AS SKIES CLEAR OUT A BIT TO VFR AGAIN. IT SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH STRONGER WINDS TO THE AREA. WINDS AFTER 12-14Z WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 22KTS AND GUSTS OF AS HIGH AS 30-32 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY NORTHERN THIRD FOR SUNDAY. && $$ AVIATION...JOHNSON PUBLIC...CO
