Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
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000 FXUS63 KIND 261647 AAB AFDIND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 1246 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2008 .AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS. INITIAL COLD FRONT HAS PASSED ALL TAF SITES WITH WINDS NOW GUSTING TO 25KTS. LOOK FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS TO INCREASE WITH PEAK GUSTS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE 21Z TO 04Z TIME FRAME WHEN GUSTS COULD REACH AROUND 37KTS AT IND TO 41KTS AT LAF ACCORDING TO THE LATEST FCST SOUNDINGS. OBS UPSTREAM ACROSS IA WITHIN THE STRONGER PRESSURE RISES ARE GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 40KTS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO FCST STRONG GUSTY WINDS THROUGH 03Z TO 04Z BEFORE LOWERING SUSTAINED SPEEDS AND PEAK GUSTS HOWEVER LOOK FOR GUSTS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. AS FOR CIGS...LOOK FOR VFR SKIES UNTIL THE PERIOD BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z MON WHEN MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP. && .UPDATED DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN INITIAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE WITH LIGHT SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN THE MID-LVL DECK. 3HR PRESSURE CHANGE SHOWS STRONG RISES ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER WHERE A SECONDARY FRONT/SURGE IS LOCATED. THE INITIAL FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HOWEVER LATEST PROFILERS FROM 88D SITES SHOW THAT WINDS WITHIN THE MIXING LAYER AT AROUND 30KTS IN WAKE OF THE FIRST FRONT. THEREFORE IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGER WINDS THAT MAY APPROACH 45 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 20Z AND COULD PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. NO CHANGE IN THE AREA OF THE ADVISORY HOWEVER WE MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY IN TIME IF WINDS DEVELOP AS EXPECTED. AS FOR MAX TEMPS...MID CLDS AHEAD OF THE INITIAL FRONT MAY LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 56 TO 59F RANGE AT IND SINCE CAA SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO EARLY AFTERNOON SO NO CHANGE TO THE GOING NUMBERS AT THIS POINT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... FOCUS WL BE ON THE SHORT TERM ESPECIALLY REGARDING WIND POTENTIAL AND TEMPS. CLEAR SKIES SEEN ON IR IMAGERY ACRS CNTRL INDIANA EARLY THIS AM. MID LVL DECK ACRS SRN MN AND IA WAS MARKING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE 130KT UPR LVL JET THAT WAS PLUNGING SE IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW. FINALLY...THE STG CD FNT EXTENDED FM CNTRL MN TO THE SD/NE BORDER AT 04Z. MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING THE STG CD FNT ACRS CNTRL INDIANA IN THE 12Z-18Z TIME FRAME TODAY. 45KT BOUNDARY LYR WINDS ARE SHOWING UP ON THE LAF MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH PLNTY OF MIXING EXPECTED. FURTHER S...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE REGARDING THE BOUNDARY LYR WINDS...SO WL KEEP WIND ADVISORY WHERE IT IS ROUGHLY JUST N OF A HUF TO IND LINE. GUSTY WINDS WL CONTINUE AFTER DARK...BUT WL DROP OFF BLW ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH THE LOSS OF THE SS. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN BRINGING POST FRONTAL LOW LVL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED CURRENT SC ACRS SCNTRL CANADA AND NRN MN SE ACRS THE FA TOWARD 12Z MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. KEPT THE REST OF THE FCST DRY. UPR RIDGE WL APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE FOR A DECENT WARMUP. STG POST FRONTAL CAA SHOULD STUNT TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON...SO AGREE WITH RELATIVE LOW MOS TEMPS TODAY. WL LEAN TOWARD LOW END OF GUIDANCE TNGT WITH STG CAA CONTINUING AND DESPITE WINDS STAYING UP. FINALLY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS MINUS 7 CELSIUS ON MONDAY AND LOTS OF SC...WL GO AOB MOS. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY NORTHERN THIRD TODAY. && $$ AVIATION...CO PUBLIC...MK UPDATE...CO
