Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
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000 FXUS63 KIND 230629 AFDIND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 230 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2008 .DISCUSSION...AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WAS STILL FOUND ACRS INDIANA AND OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING...PROVIDING DRY WX ACRS INDIANA. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRES WAS FOUND ACRS KS AND NB. VERY DRY AIR REMAINED IN PLACE ACRS INDIANA AS SFC DEW POINT TEMPS WERE IN THE MIDDLE 20S. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WL BE ONSET OF PCPN. MODELS HAVE COME TO A BETTER AGREEMENT WITH PCPN TIMING...AND WL USE A BLEND. THE UPPER RIDGE OVR THE AREA WL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY OF DRY WX ACRS INDIANA TDY AS TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE. AS FOR TEMPS...GOOD WAA IS FOUND AT H8 AS TEMPS REACH NEAR 9C. HENCE WL AIM FOR MOSUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. MAVMOS HANDLES THIS QUITE WELL. CLOUDS WL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE LOW APPROACHES. GOOD WAA AHEAD OF THE SYS SHUD ALSO HELP TO KEEP TEMPS UP. WL LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THE MAVMOS. BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEAR TO MOVE INTO WESTERN INDIANA NEAR 12Z...THUS WL NEED SOME POPS ACRS THE WESTERN AREAS. WITH SUCH DRY AIR THE LOWER LVLS OF THE ATMOS...IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR SHRA TO MATERIALIZE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACRS THE AREA BECOME SATURATED ON FRI...AS THE 305K ISENTROPIC SFC SHOWS STRONG LIFT AND SURGE OF MOISTURE PUSHING ACRS INDIANA. HENCE GIVEN THE EXPECTED PCPN WL LEAN COOLER ON TEMPS AND CONFIDENCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN IS HIGH. THUS WL USE NEAR CATEGORICAL POPS. ATTM IT APPEARS A DRY SLOT MOVES ACRS INDIANA FRI NIGHT AS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE PUSHES TOWARD THE NE. STILL A STRONG UPPER LOW WL STILL BE OVER THE AREA IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT A STRAY SHRA STILL MAY OCCUR. WL STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS POPS HERE. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LATTER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AS THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS ON SAT. VERY COLD AIR WL BE FOUND ALOFT RESULTING IN CLOUDS AND INSTABILITY. ANOTHER EVEN COLDER SURGE OF AIR WILL MOVE IN STARTING SUNDAY FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO NW FLOW AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. && .AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PD. NO CIG/VIS ISSUES THIS TIME AROUND. WIND WILL ONCE AGAIN PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON AND WILL ADD GUSTS TO 20KTS AS GRADIENT IS TIGHT AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MORE LIKELY POSSIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...SALLY PUBLIC...PUMA
