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National Situation Update: Sunday, September 30, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Summary

South
While much of the south could be rain-free throughout the upcoming week (very bad news for the Tennessee Valley, Alabama, north Georgia and Carolina drought area), isolated thunderstorms will dot parts of Texas and Oklahoma from time-to-time and showers could be on the increase along the southeast and northern Gulf Coasts across Florida.

The sprawling area of high pressure over the East will expand out into the western Atlantic.  An increasingly long and persistent east-northeast fetch will set up Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, and cause gusty winds, rip currents, rough surf coastal flooding at high tides and some beach erosion along the South Carolina, Georgia and eastern Florida beaches.  The risk for showers could gradually increase, as well.
 
A showery disturbance over the Bahamas could create additional problems for Florida and the Gulf of Mexico in the upcoming week.

Midwest
The windy cold front, and a developing low pressure area, will track from the Plains into the Mississippi Valley Sunday, September 30, 2007.

The thunderstorms will gradually shift eastward, as well, and some could turn severe in the Mississippi Valley, with damaging winds, a few tornadoes and some hail.

The area of low pressure and front will weaken over the Great Lakes Monday into early Tuesday, triggering scattered thunderstorms.

A new windy cold front will take center stage in the Mississippi Valley Tuesday, with numerous showers and thunderstorms.

This second front and any lingering thunderstorms will weaken in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Wednesday, before fizzling out completely by Thursday.

A third cold front will take shape from the Plains to Michigan late week, with showers to the north and few thunderstorms along the front.

West
A new cold front will move into the Pacific Northwest today, bringing continued rain to western sections of Washington and Oregon, rain and snow to the Cascades and showers into the northern Great Basin.  The Olympic Peninsula could see some flooding from inch-plus rainfall.

The windy front will sweep across the interior northwest and the central Rockies on Monday.  While showers linger west of the Cascades, showers and mountain snow will expand eastward into Montana, Wyoming and northern Utah.  Isolated thunderstorms will develop Monday in the Four Corners states.

Northeast
Strong high pressure, cool dry air, calming winds and longer nights will combine to drop temperatures into the 30s across northern Pennsylvania, Upstate New York, the Berkshires, the upper Connecticut River Valley and northern New England.  Frost and light freeze are possible across Upstate New York and western New England.

A few showers could dampen northwest Pennsylvania and the western half of Upstate New York, thanks to the last gasp of a Great Lakes system Tuesday, but the rest of the region will be dry.

Making greater inroads, a few showers could brush northwest Pennsylvania, Upstate New York, and northern New England later Wednesday into Thursday as a second weakening system passes by to the north.

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report.  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical Storm Melissa
At 5:00 am EDT, September 30, 2007, the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was located about 490 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands.TS Melissa is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph, and this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph, with higher gusts.  Melissa could weaken to a Tropical Depression during the next 24 hours.Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center.Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

Eastern Pacific:
Tropical Storm Juilette
At 5:00 am EDT, September 30, 2007, the center of this system was located about 1,080 miles south-southeast of San Diego, CA.

Present movement toward the northwest at 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds 40 mph, with gusts to 52 mph. Within 36-48 hours Juliette will reach cooler water and thus accelerate weakening. This system poses no threat to the United States.

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Central Pacific:
Nothing significant to report.

Western Pacific:
Nothing significant to report. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

An earthquake occurred at 10:09 PM EDT on Saturday, September 29, 2007. The magnitude 6.8 event occurred 215 miles south-southeast of Hagatna, Guam, at a depth of 6.2 miles.

There were no reports of any injuries, damages or tsunamis associated with this earthquake. (NOAA, USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center) 

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)