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Interpret the Solar Wind Plot

Interpret the Solar Wind/Geomagnetic Activity Plot

Can I see the aurora? (Click here to find out.)

To determine if the aurora will be visible from your area, follow these steps for using the auroral forecast website.

Step 1. Choose a view.

On the left hand side of the website is a choice of 5 different maps to display the prediction of the nighttime aurora. Click on the map that best shows your location.

Step 2. Check the activity necessary for your area.

After you have selected your map, visit the Interpreting the Forecast page. You will see your map displayed for each of the 10 forecast levels (0 to 9). Find the levels where your location is inside the green line. For example, on the North America map, Chicago requires a 3 to see the aurora on the northern horizon and at least a 5 to see it overhead.

Step 3. Check activity for the day of interest.

Check the main forecast for the day of interest. If your location is within the green line on the equatorward side of the green and white band around the pole, you should plan on aurora watching that night.

Step 4. Check the short-term forecast.

To see if the aurora will be visible from your location within the next hour, look at the "short term forecast" on the right hand side of the display. This is a continually updated forecast, based on an actual satellite measurement, so if it shows an index 5 and you are in Seattle, Chicago, New York City, Halifax or anywhere under the green and white band, then there is aurora overhead. If the sun is down, you should go outside, away from city lights with a view of the poleward horizon, and look for it. It will be most active between 10 pm and 2 am.

Step 5. Plan ahead.

To plan a trip to the auroral zone, use the "Long-term (28-day) Forecast" (at right) and the "Solar Wind/Geomagnetic Activity Plot" (to the left).

Viewing the Aurora in the Northern Summer (Click here to see if it's possible.)

During the northern summer, sunlight prevents viewing the aurora at high northern latitudes. As the sun climbs in the sky until June 21st and then descends, the nights are too light to see the aurora. Because the magnetic pole is displaced toward North America, the auroral zone shown on our maps is at low enough latitudes to be seen even in the summer. Here are the rules of thumb for auroral viewing based on your latitude.

North of 65°

North of 65° latitude, aurora viewing very limited May 1 through August 10. The auroral index should be 2 or more to see it south of this latitude.

North of 60°

North of 60° latitude, aurora viewing very limited May 15 through August 1. The auroral index should be 3 or more to see it south of this latitude.

North of 55°

North of 55° latitude, aurora viewing very limited June 10 through July 1. The auroral index should be 4 or more to see it south of this latitude.

South of 55°

South of 55 degrees latitude, the aurora should be visible to observers in Canada and the northern US all summer if the auroral index is 4 or more.

Aurora Forecast for Wednesday, September 17, 2008

MODERATE:

Name of forecaster: Charles Deehr

Time of prediction: 9/8/2008 11:31:00 AM*

Forecast:
Additional Forecaster comments: (none)
* Alaska Daylight Time (AKDT) is 8 hours behind Greenwich Mean Time (GMT) or Universal Time (UT). Alaska Standard Time (AKST) is 9 hours behind GMT or UT.

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Short Term (1 hr) Forecast for
Wednesday, September 17, 2008 22:36:01 GMT is
QUIET

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