November 30, 2004

Record Global Durum Production in 2004/05

World durum output in 2004/05 is expected to be up by 13 percent from last year, totaling about 33 million tons.  The big story for this year’s crop is record harvests experienced in most of the European Union’s (EU) durum-producing member countries. On average, the three largest producers, EU, Canada, and the United States, comprise nearly 60 percent of global production.  Durum production in the EU increased by an amazing 40 percent this year due to favorable weather and increased area.  Canada is up10 percent, however, the quality of the crop is still of concern due to the wet cool summer and harvest delays.  In the United States, durum production is down 7 percent, due to lower area.  Although the quantity of durum may be lower in the United States, the quality of the crop is excellent so far, according to updated quality surveys, with more than 40 percent of samples collected. 

For other producers, on the upside, durum crops in India, Mexico, Argentina, and Australia are up significantly (50, 10, 9, and 9 percent, respectively), while production is up slightly for Morocco, Tunisia, and Turkey.  On the downside, the durum crop in Russia is significantly lower while production in Syria is slightly lower compared to last year. Durum in Kazakstan and Algeria remain unchanged from last year’s crop.  Last year, the big story was the increase in production for Morocco, Tunisia, and Algeria, where they had experienced more than two-fold increases.  This year, they continue to be at these high levels, although late season rains may have affected the quality of the crop.  In recent past years, due to high internal transport costs and higher crop quality, Mexico had become an exporter of durum. Mexican durum is typically used domestically as a major feed ingredient in hog rations when there is a surplus of low-quality durum.   

 European Union’s Durum Area Is Strongly Upward

Global durum production has been increasing for the last ten years, while area has been slightly decreasing.  Most of the production increases are occurring in the EU, Canada, as well as new players in the world durum production picture, mostly smaller countries in the Middle East and North Africa.  Durum acreage in the EU is up, despite the fact that the EU already started phasing out payments to farmers for durum grown in the traditional durum growing areas for over a three-year period.  In 2004/05, the cut in the supplemental aid was decreased by EUR40 per hectare.  However, that decrease is not real, since for durum that meets the EU quality specifications, there will be an additional EUR40 per hectare payment.  Furthermore, these durum supplements are paid on top of the regular arable aid payment of EUR63 per ton.  Other factors that may have caused area to increase include: a reduction in the set-aside rate for arable crops from 10 percent to 5 percent for 2004/05, better prices due to the poor harvest in 2003, and excellent planting conditions.

In the United States, yields have sharply increased in the past couple of years, which have helped production, despite the decreases experienced in area since 1998.  According to the North Dakota Wheat Commission, better durum varieties are being grown in the major growing regions in the United States. Global yields have been increasing as well, due to improved seed varieties and favorable weather conditions in some countries.  (For more information, contact Michelle Greenberg at 202-720-7339.)

Durum Area Yield Production Tables.xls

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Regional Roundup: Durum Crop Conditions for 2004/05

In the European Union, durum production is estimated at a record crop of 11.7 million tons in 2004, up 40 percent from last year’s 8.3-million-ton crop. Harvested area is forecast at 3.9 million hectares, compared to 3.5 million in 2003.  This year’s estimated yield of 3.04 tons per hectare broke the1998 record by 9 percent, compared to the last season.  In sharp contrast to last year’s weather-reduced yield, persistent beneficial weather increased durum yields in almost all regions of the European Union.  EU durum is primarily grown in southern Europe, with about half of the total production coming from southern Italy, totaling 5.6 million tons, up 50 percent from last year.  Their yield is estimated at 2.99 tons per hectare, up 36 percent from the previous year.  While the durum yields in France are one of the highest in the EU--for 2004/05 yields are estimated at 5.1 tons per hectare--the crop there only accounts for 25 percent.  Their production is estimated at 2.1 million tons, up 43 percent from the last season.  Spain produced 2.8 million tons of durum, up 25 percent, while Greece produced 1.0 million tons, up 43 percent from last year.  Portugal and Austria also produce appreciable quantities of durum.  (For more information, contact Bryan Purcell at 202-690-0138.)

Durum production in Canada is forecast at 4.7 million tons in 2004, up 9 percent from the 4.3 million produced last year, and well above the 5-year average of 4.2 million tons.  A cool, wet summer growing period throughout Canada helped boost durum yields significantly in comparison to drought-affected crops harvested in the past three years.  These conditions also led to significantly delayed crop maturation and harvest, with some areas being a month behind normal.  Recent heavy snows and cold temperatures have reportedly left some 12 percent of the Saskatchewan durum crop still in the field unharvested, and it is yet unclear whether it will remain there until spring.  Durum wheat is grown exclusively in western Canada, and 75 percent of total production originates in the province of Saskatchewan .  (For more information, contact Michael Shean at 202-720-7366.)

In Mexico, 2004/05 durum production is estimated at 1.1 million tons, up 10 percent from last year.  Despite the poor reservoir levels in northwestern Mexico, unexpected showers in early 2004 greatly benefited wheat fields, preempting the looming stress that would have resulted from insufficient water resources.  Historically, durum represents a small portion of national wheat totals; however, recent government initiatives to increase durum’s share of planted area appears to be accruing dividends, thanks to the sowing of newer varieties that are hardy enough to withstand less-than-ideal conditions.  Sonora ’s harvested area generally dwarfs that of other states in years when moisture availability is good; Sonora and Baja California are major contributors to the harvest, which began as early as April. Reservoir levels across Mexico ’s Pacific northwest remain below 50 percent of capacity this year, but are higher than in 2003. The hurricane season ends November 30, leaving a scant few weeks to elevate reservoir totals prior to the dry season. Only tropical storms can deliver the volume of water necessary to rapidly replenish reservoirs.  (For more information, contact Ron White at 202-690-0137.)

In Argentina, the durum crop for 2004/05 is estimated at 160,000 tons, up 9 percent from last year, due to both area and yield increases.  Durum is mostly grown in the Tandil delegation of the southern Buenos Aires Province.  Beneficial weather in Tandil, so far, has boosted potential yields.  Wheat area in general is up year-to-year because of better economic returns, and this is true for durum as well.  Harvesting is expected to start in January. (For more information, contact Bob Tetrault at 202-690-0130.)

Australia ’s durum production is forecast at 300,000 tons, up 9 percent from last year.  Yield is expected to rebound from last season’s drought-affected crop. The current 2004/05 season is expected to be slightly improved over last season's (2003/04) lackluster production resulting from unfavorable conditions.  Rainfall amounts in Australia ’s dominant durum area of northern New South Wales were below normal for the season, affecting sowing programs in May and June.  Hot and windy conditions during early October--during the portion of the grain fill stage--are expected to have sapped yield potential.  Harvesting of the 2004/05 crop will begin in early December.  There is limited public information on durum production in Australia, as a result of limited monitoring and agricultural census budget cuts.  In previous years, Australia has exported wheat to Italy for pasta production and North Africa for couscous.  (For more information, contact James Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)

In India, durum production is estimated at 1.2 million tons, up 50 percent over the previous season of 2003/04.  The previous season was exceptionally dry, with the central India n wheat region being one of the driest in the recent years. The increase in 2004/05 durum production is a result of improved growing conditions. The 2004/05 durum wheat season in central India began with excellent soil moisture availability in November 2003, and then received very favorable rains during January 2004 as the crop entered the flowering stage.  The durum crop was harvested during April.

Durum is grown mainly in the states of Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, parts of Punjab, south Rajasthan, and Maharashtra and according to the Government of India (GOI) Ministry of Agriculture production varies between five and twelve per cent of total wheat output.  However, in reality it is more often on the lower end of this range. The GOI does not offer a separate estimate of durum through any of its crop forecasting or monitoring programs.  It is possible as contract farming increases in the Indian agricultural sector, durum contract farming will become more commonplace and consequently production may increase in the future and the crop marketed separately.

Durum wheat comprises a small portion of the total wheat grown in India.  Durum is called by various names such as Samba in Tamil Nadu, Ravva Godhumulu in Andhra, Popatiya in Gujarat and Khapli in Maharashtra.  The ‘central zone’ consists of Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, the Bundelkhund area of Uttar Pradesh, and the southeastern portion of Rajasthan.  The central zone grows both the durum and white wheat.  Most of the wheat grown in this zone is rainfed, with the notable exception of wheat in Gujarat where a considerable area is irrigated. The Central Zone is the most important zone of durum production, and is grown under rainfed conditions.  (For more information, contact James Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)

In Kazakhstan , declining demand has forced a gradual reduction in durum area.  Production is forecast at 100,000 tons, compared to estimated total wheat output of 10.0 million.  In the early 1990’s, durum comprised roughly ten percent of all spring wheat grown in Kazakhstan. At the present time, however, durum wheat is produced by only a few companies for their own needs, largely for macaroni production, and Kazakhstan farmers are unlikely to increase durum production in the near future. 

Russia’s durum production for 2004/05 is down from last year due to drought in the key durum region.  Production is estimated at 1.0 million tons, against 1.2 million last year, from estimated area of 1.0 million hectares.  Roughly 70 percent of Russia ’s durum wheat is produced in the southern Volga Valley (specifically Orenburg oblast and eastern Saratov oblast), with the remainder grown in Western Siberia (Altai Krai).  Durum production is highly variable from year to year because it is grown largely in zones of risky agriculture, subject to frequent drought.  Durum is not considered a priority crop in Russia and comprises only about two percent of total wheat output. (For more information, contact Mark Lindeman at 202-690-0143.)

In North Africa, Tunisia’s durum output for 2004/05 is estimated at 1.4 million tons, up 8 percent from last year, due mostly to a nearly 20-percent acreage increase. However, relatively heavy late-season rains occurred at mid-June 2004 and slightly delayed the underway harvest. These rains affected mainly the wheat-growing northern wheat provinces and the crop is believed to have lower quality than last year, as light test weights combined to some fungus damages were reported.  Algeria’s durum production for 2004/05 is estimated at 1.8 million tons, unchanged from last year. 

Morocco’s 2004/05 durum crop of 1.87 million tons is up 6 percent, well above both the five-year average of 1.0 million tons.  Morocco harvested 1.1 million hectares of durum in 2004/05, and a relative high yield of 1.636 tons/hectare was achieved due to an excellent growing season.  Total durum production was close to the record crop of 2.34 million tons grown on 1.34 million hectares in 1994-1995.  (For more information, contact Curt Reynolds at 202-690-0134.)  

Turkey’s durum production for 2004/05 is estimated at 2.4 million tons, slightly above last year’s crop of 2.3 million tons.  This year’s good seasonal rainfall resulted in another year of high durum output.  Harvested area is estimated at 1.1 million hectares.  The Southeastern Anatolia region produces about 50-60 percent of the total durum, with the remaining 40-50 percent produced in Central Anatolia, around Ankara and Kayseri.  (For more information, contact Curt Reynolds at 202-690-0134.)

For more information, contact Michelle Greenberg
with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, at (202) 720-7339.