December 20, 2000

China Wheat Update

Preview of China’s 2001/02 Wheat Crop

The 2001/02 winter wheat crop was planted in September-October 2000, and is now mostly dormant. Rainfall from September through November was above normal over the main winter wheat production areas, providing adequate soil moisture for planting and germination. [Rainfall map]

Saturated soils and localized flooding caused planting delays in parts of Henan and the Yangtze River basin following above-normal rainfall in September and October, while dry weather affected sections of Hebei. [Graphs] Temperatures were seasonable to cool across the region, and the crop went into dormancy in generally good condition.

Winter wheat accounts for 88 to 90 percent of China’s total wheat crop. According to preliminary planting reports from the Chinese government and several provinces, planted area for the 2001/02 winter wheat crop is expected to decline by 5 to 7 percent (1 to 2 million hectares), the fourth consecutive reduction in wheat area. Spring wheat area will likely continue to decline in 2001/02, due to low prices and government policies that favor the planting of higher-quality winter wheat varieties. The reasons given for declining wheat area are the same as for this year's area reduction: better prices for alternative crops such as rapeseed, rising input costs, and government policies which discouraged the production of low-yielding wheat in central and southern China.

China's official State Grain Information Center has forecast the 2001/02 wheat crop at 105.0 million tons, up 3.0 million from the 2000/01 crop, assuming good weather and improved yields. The first USDA production estimate for China’s 2001/02 wheat crop will be released in May 2001.

Review of China’s 2000/01 Wheat Crop

USDA estimates China’s 2000/01 total wheat crop at 102.0 million tons, down 11.9 million or 10 percent from last year. Total area is estimated 27.0 million hectares, down 6 percent from last year and the lowest area since 1974. [Table]

The estimated yield of 3.78 tons per hectare is slightly below the 5-year average but higher than the yields in 1996/97 and 1998/99. Sharply lower wheat prices and changes in the government's procurement policy led farmers along the Yangtze River to switch from low-quality winter wheat to winter rapeseed and other cash crops. High production costs and limited availability of water for irrigation also affected winter wheat area in 2000/01. There is minimal demand for China’s low-quality spring wheat, and starting in 2000 the Government no longer purchased spring wheat at a protected price. Farmers shifted to alternatives such as oilseeds or forage crops, and spring wheat area declined by more than 20 percent. [Area Table]

For more information, contact Paulette Sandene with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 690-0133.