October 24, 2000

A New Record for Argentina Soybeans

A record soybean crop is again expected from Argentina, the world’s third largest soybean producer after the United States and Brazil. The upward trend in soybean area will continue in 2000/01. Soybean area increases in the last three years, for the most part, can be accounted for as shifts from major and minor field crops to soybeans. Nearly 90 percent of the soybeans are grown in the provinces of Santa Fe, Cordoba and Buenos Aires, the prime agricultural region of the country. About 85 percent of the area increases have been in these three provinces and have mostly been the result of area reductions in other crops. This trend is expected to continue this season.

USDA’s October 12 forecast for soybean harvested area is 9.3 million hectares, up 9 percent from last year. Production is forecast at 22.6 million tons, up 5 percent from last year. Planting will begin next month, and planting prospects are currently very high due mainly to reductions in sunflower and corn areas. A weak demand for other oilseeds has prompted year-to-year declines in sunflowerseed and peanut areas in favor of soybeans (down 22 % for sunseed and 7 % for peanuts). Soybeans are also favored over corn based on the soy-corn price ratio of recent months. Harvested area for corn is estimated down 6 percent form last year.

On October 18, the Argentine government released its first soybean planting intention estimate of 9.8 million hectares, up 12 percent from last year. The area that will eventually be planted to soybeans is highly dependent on the outcome of corn and sunflower plantings that are currently underway. Slight delays in early planting were caused by inadequate soil moisture due to below normal rainfall in September. The situation has improved in recent weeks with the arrival of beneficial rainfall in most of the corn and sunflower areas. Planting of these crops generally continues through December. Soybean planting begins in November and continues until January. Second-crop soybeans are planted immediately after wheat is harvested, from late-November through early January.

There is also speculation that some cotton area in the northern provinces may be planted to soybeans instead. Cotton producers have been faced with uncertainties over whether: 1) needed financial assistance will become available, and 2) poor planting conditions because of hot dry weather would improve. Rains fell in the northern region last week and greatly improved soil moisture for planting. However, the availability of financial help remains an outstanding issue. Planting has just begun and will continue through December.

Additional information:

[Current USDA estimates] Planting Progress for [Corn] [Sunseed]

For more information, contact Maria Anulacion with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 690-0139.