October 30, 2000

Recent Rains Improve Winter Wheat, Pasture and Rangeland Prospects In Texas

Prior to planting and establishment of the 2000/01 winter wheat crop, the southern plains states and particularly Texas, were suffering from "drought" conditions. Over the next several days, the FSA - FAS Center for Remote Sensing Analysis will be publishing observations on winter wheat establishment across Oklahoma, Texas, Nebraska, Colorado, and Kansas.

On October 25 and 27, reports highlighting Kansas and Oklahoma conditions were released. Since release of the Kansas report, more rain fell in Kansas across the major wheat growing areas of the central and western Kansas crop districts, especially reaching the southwest district.

A 24 hour precipitation map prepared by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center ending at 12Z on October 24, illustrates the rainfall distribution since the Kansas condition report. Note the heavy rainfall also in some of the Summer 2000's driest areas of Texas, New Mexico, and western Oklahoma. A 7 day precipitation map, also prepared by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, illustrates the rainfall distribution for the bulk of this beneficial Southern Plains rainfall. Rainfall across the major wheat producing areas since October 21 ranges from 1 inch to much greater than 5 inches.

Analysis of satellite images through October 26, 2000 indicates that the region is must less "green" than it was at this same time in October 1999. Included is a "Vegetation Index Comparison" of the region for October 1 - 15, comparing 1999 to 2000. This information correlates well with the "Pasture and Range" condition report released on October 23, 2000 by USDA NASS. According to this report, as of October 22, 66 percent of Kansas range and pastures are in poor-to-very poor condition. In Nebraska, 86 percent of range and pastures are in poor-to-very poor condition and in Colorado 58 percent. Oklahoma pastures and ranges are rated 62 percent poor-to-very poor and 67 percent of the Texas' pastures and ranges are rated poor-to-very poor.

During August and September 2000, precipitation was generally below normal and in large areas and non-existent across much of Texas, especially in central, western and northern counties. This combined with above-normal temperatures to deplete moisture in the surface soil layers, not a condition favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment.While still below seasonal amounts during late September and early October, rainfall became more frequent in southern and eastern Texas. Significant rain finally reached across the entire State during October 22 - 25, and is well in time to benefit winter wheat establishment and favor plant growth on pastures and rangeland. Again, the 7 day precipitation map, through October 24, illustrates the rainfall distribution. Some local flooding can be expected and some newly planted fields may have been washed out. Since October 27, drier weather favored fieldwork. Stormier weather is forecast to return to Texas during October 30 through November 2, 2000.

Soil moisture models and a weather station database are used to help with this analysis. Graphs are provided to help illustrate current winter wheat prospects compared with recent years.

Soil Moisture Graphs

Precipitation Graphs

As of October 22, 2000, 61 percent of Texas' winter wheat crop has been planted according to the Texas Agricultural State Statistician. During this same week in 1999, 70 percent of the crop was planted while 77 percent is the 5 year average. As of October 22, only 22 percent of the crop had emerged, 49 percent in 1999 and 58 percent the 5 year average.

Satellite imagery is continually monitored across Texas. Landsat Thematic Mapper images from a portion of Bell County, Texas, near Temple, are provided to illustrate the intensity and impact of this Summer's drought on Texas. Note the lack of "red" fields on the August 11, 2000 scene, compared with the August 9, 1999 scene. The "red" areas on the 1999 scene are primarily "rainfed" summer crops and pastures. Also, note the smaller size of the reservoir on the 2000 scene, compared to the 1999 scene, another consequence of the drought.

Texas temperatures and precipitation will continue to be monitored and reported on regularly.

For more information, contact Carl Gernazio with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, Center for Remote Sensing Analysis at (202) 690-0136.