Hurricane NATE

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TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005
 
NATE HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR OVER 12 HOURS AND
APPEARS WELL ON ITS WAY TO BEING CLASSIFIED AS A REMNANT LOW. IF
NATE DOES NOT PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION SOON...IT WILL NO LONGER MEET
THE CRITERIA FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES...BASED SOLELY ON CONSTRAINTS...ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND
35 KT FROM SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT BASED ON A
NEARBY SHIP WCZ8589 WHICH HAS BEEN PROVIDING VALUABLE INFORMATION
REGARDING THE WIND AND SEAS RADII DURING THE LAST TWO ADVISORIES.
LACKING THE NECESSARY CONVECTION TO MAINTAIN STRONG WINDS...THE
REMNANT LOW OF NATE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN OVER THE NEXT 2
DAYS AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS
EXPECTED TO FORM FROM THE EVOLUTION OF MARIA INTO A LARGE AND
POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. NONETHELESS...THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF NATE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WINDS TO GALE FORCE
AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT.
 
NATE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED DUE EASTWARD BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
BEFORE AT 090/15.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS APPEAR TO BE
MAINTAINING NATE AS A MEDIUM TO DEEP FEATURE THUS ACCOUNTING FOR
THEIR POLEWARD TRACK BIAS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AGAIN ADJUSTED
SOUTHWARD BASICALLY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS-BASED BAMS TRAJECTORY
MODEL. NATE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM OVERTAKES IT
FROM THE WEST. 
 
FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/0900Z 34.8N  48.1W    45 KT
 12HR VT     10/1800Z 34.8N  45.3W    40 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     11/0600Z 35.5N  41.0W    40 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     11/1800Z 37.2N  36.5W    35 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     12/0600Z 41.5N  31.8W    35 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     13/0600Z...ABSORBED
 
 
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