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Family History

Using Decision Analytic Methods to Assess the Utility of Family History Tools
Anupam Tyagi PhD and Jill Morris PhD

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Tables

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TABLE 1: Outcome and cost measures that may be included in an assessment of family history tools

Outcomes Costs
Behavior or behavioral risk factors changed
Nonbehavioral risk factors changed
Change in risk from change in risk factors
Time saved to detection of risk factors (early detection)
Time saved to detection of onset of conditions
Mortality averted
Disease cases averted
Life-years saved
Quality- and disability-adjusted life years saved (QALYs and
DALYs)
Productivity loss avoided
Money saved by (1) individual, (2) family members, (3) provider or insurer, (4) public health agencies, and (5) society
Time cost to patient
Cost of collecting information
Cost of managing information
Cost of communicating the information to patients, e.g., counseling
Cost of clinically using the information (computer-assisted decision making may be helpful)
Screening and testing costs for individual (including
adverse social, psychological, and health outcomes)
Screening and testing costs for the family members for
risk factors, if necessary
Cost of screening program
Cost of treatment or behavior change

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TABLE 2: Assumptions used to assess utility of a hypothetical family history (FH) tool for colorectal cancer (CRC)

Variable
Value
Alternative 1: current practice
Alternative 2: FH stratification
Prevalence of CRC FH
Not requireda
13% (moderate FH)
 
2% (strong FH)
Proportion of individuals screened
20%
100% (strong FH)
 
100% (moderate FH)
 
20% (no FH)
CRC lifetime risk
4.6%
20% (strong FH)
 
6% (moderate FH)
 
4% (no FH)
Reduction in risk from screening
50% reduction
50% reduction

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TABLE 3: Results of the illustrative decision analysis

Alternative strategiesa
Total expected
cases per
100,000
Cases averted
compared with
no screening
Cases averted
compared with
current practice
No screeningb
4580
N/A
N/A
Current practice
4122
458
N/A
Family history (FH) stratification, assuming 100% of persons with strong FH are screenedcd
3962
618
160
FH stratification, assuming 100% of persons with strong and moderate FHs are screenede
3650
930
472
100% population-wide screeningb
2290
2290
1832

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Page last reviewed: January 1, 2003 (archived document)
Page last updated: December 11, 2007
Content Source: National Office of Public Health Genomics