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National Situation Update: Friday, March 24, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Forecasters Predict Busy 2006 Hurricane Season

Meteorologists from Colorado State University, Atmospheric Science Department, have released preliminary forecasts for the upcoming 2006 hurricane season that will begin on May 15. Based on weather data accumulated through December 2005, forecasters predict the following tropical cyclone activity during the upcoming season (May - November 2006):

After last year's extremely destructive season, local, state, and federal public safety officials will be concerned by the preliminary 2006 forecasts. The statistical probabilities for at least one Major (Category 3-4-5) Hurricane landfall on each of the following coastal areas for 2006 are not comforting:

Although tropical cyclone activity is expected to be less in 2006 than last year's very active season, overall activity is expected to be much higher than normal. (Colorado State University, Atmospheric Science Department)

Cold Weather Persists in Much of the U.S. Through the Weekend

Northeast: Cold temperatures will continue to dominate the Northeast during the next 3 days where light snow or rain showers are expected to move slowly from the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday into New York and New England during the weekend.

South: Temperatures in the southern U.S. will continue to be below seasonal averages with highs of 50s-60s in the Deep South. Temperatures across the South will remain 5-10 degrees below average through the weekend. Warm temperatures will begin to move into the region during the weekend raising the highs into the 60s-70s.
  
Midwest: The Canadian storm system that is stuck over the Midwest will continue to bring cold temperatures on Friday for the area from the Dakotas to the Texas Panhandle. The region from the Ohio Valley to Kansas will see temperatures in the 30s-40s. The Ohio Valley will see some rain and snow on Friday, while the Great Plains and Mississippi River Valley regions will see clear and sunny weather.

West: The Pacific Northwest will see a new storm system dropping rain and snow on Friday in Washington and Oregon. On Saturday an additional storm system will move into the Pacific Northwest bringing rainfall to areas including northern California.  (National Weather Service (NWS) media sources)

Hawaii Flood Update

The Hawaiian Islands continue to experience near-daily impacts from over three weeks of heavy rain. The National Weather Service reports multiple rainfall records broken for a 30-day period ending March 20, including 48 inches in Wailua, Kauai (previous record 38"); 116.3 inches on Mt Waialeale, Kauai (record 79.6"); 67.7 inches on Oahu (48.5"), 34.4 inches on Maui (32.2"); and 49.3 inches on the Big Island (43.1"). The weekend is expected to be dry with a return to seasonal shower activity on Sunday.

On Kauai, three fatalities have been reported by the State and four remain missing following the March 14 breech of the Ka Loko Dam.  The State has called off an emergency search for missing residents in Kilauea and a National Guard casualty extraction team assisted by local firefighters will continue the search.  Twelve homes remain voluntarily evacuated below the Morita Dam on Kauai.  Controlled releases continue for the Ka Loko and Morita Reservoirs. Of 54 dams inspected to date, four are being monitored and two were red-flagged as threatened: the Alexander and Twin Reservoir dams.

On Oahu, a landslide blocked traffic along a 100-yard stretch of Round Top Drive in Honolulu before sunrise Thursday morning; no injuries or damage to homes was reported and the slide was cleared within six hours. 

The State remains under a March 2 Governor's emergency proclamation.  The Hawaii State EOC remains in operation 18 hours a day, 0600-2400 locally.  All county EOCs are monitoring conditions.  One shelter remains active on Kauai with six residents. Two disaster assistance and recovery centers (DARCs) are scheduled to open this weekend.  Assessments continue for dams and reservoirs state-wide.

The U.S. Coast Guard continues offering air ambulance service as required.  The Army Corps of Engineers is assisting with assessment of dams and reservoirs. The FEMA Pacific Area Office deployed a liaison to the State EOC on March 14 and the FEMA Region IX Duty Officer in Oakland, CA is monitoring. A Joint State/FEMA Preliminary Damage Assessment (including SBA) for Kauai and Oahu have been requested by the State; the assessment awaits favorable weather conditions to begin.  (FEMA Region IX)

Tropical Activity

There are no tropical disturbances in the Atlantic or Pacific Oceans that affect the U.S. or U.S. interests. (National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

There has been no significant earthquake activity in the previous 24 hours that affect U.S. interests. (Source: United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)