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National Situation Update: Sunday, March 19, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant Weather Across the Nation

West: A deep upper-level storm over the Southwest will produce widespread precipitation. Heavy snow warnings continue for Utah's Wasatch mountains, parts of northern and central Nevada, and central Montana for periods of heavy snow. Showers can also be expected this afternoon in the Phoenix metro area, but accumulations should only amount to a quarter of an inch. Winter storm watches, warnings, and advisories stretch from Montana to eastern Colorado. Up to five inches of snow is forecast for the Denver area with higher amounts in the adjacent foothills and Palmer Divide. March is typically the snowiest month in Denver.

Midwest: Moist southerly winds overrunning surface cold air will continue to produce light to moderate snow from the Dakotas to Nebraska. Winter storm warnings are in effect from southwest North Dakota, South Dakota and western and north-central Nebraska, including Rapid City and the Black Hills. Accumulations could top 10 inches locally through late afternoon. From tonight into Monday the storm system will swing out of the Southern Rockies, producing heavy snow in the central Plains. Nebraska, northern Kansas, far northern Missouri, and southern Iowa will receive the heaviest accumulations from this major winter storm.

South: The latest in a series of storm systems is taking aim on the nation's South and will continue to do so through Tuesday. There will be two main impacts of this latest storm. First, a substantial soaking, with several rounds of moderate to heavy rain, will continue from Oklahoma and north Texas to Arkansas. Severe drought has crippled parts of Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas since last spring. With up to four inches of rainfall forecast through Monday, the heavy rain could quickly run off the drought hardened ground and produce localized flooding. Severe thunderstorms with hail and a few tornadoes are forecast for West Texas this morning spreading eastward through the day across northern and central Texas.

Northeast: Due to cold air aloft, afternoon snow showers are forecast for Upstate New York and northern New England with accumulations up to three inches. Downwind of Lake Ontario accumulations of lake effect snow may reach four to 12 inches.
Hawaii: Flash flooding remains possible through Monday. The atmosphere over the Hawaiian Islands will remain moist and unstable through Monday. A surface trough near Kauai and a series of upper level disturbances approaching from the west will maintain the threat of heavy showers and possible flooding for all islands. (National Weather Service [NWS], media sources)

Tropical Activity

There are no tropical disturbances in the Atlantic or North Pacific Oceans.

South Pacific Ocean:

• Tropical Cyclone 17P (Larry) is approaching the Australian northeast coast of Queensland south of Cairns 
• The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert for an area of convection approximately 480 miles north-northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia. The system is moving west-southwestward at 19 miles per hour. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is good.
• Neither of the above tropical systems is a threat to U.S. territories at this time.  (National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No significant activity during the last 24 hours.(U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)