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National Situation Update: Friday, March 17, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Weekend Rain for the Plains of Texas and Oklahoma

South: A wet storm will move across the South. Heavy rain will focus across central and eastern Oklahoma, north-central and northeast Texas, Arkansas, northern Louisiana and west-central Mississippi especially by Sunday. Some areas could pick up between 1 and 4 inches by Sunday night, greatly helping the surface soil moisture in a large chunk of the drought region. From Arkansas, northeast Texas and northern Louisiana, heavy rain will shift eastward across the Deep South and Southeast Monday and Tuesday.

West: A Pacific storm Friday will produce rain and mountain snow from Washington to Los Angeles and as far as the Rockies. By Saturday, the Western storm will dominate the weather from the high Plains to the Pacific Coast. The Pacific Northwest will see scattered showers with low snow levels. A cold upper-level disturbance tracking into Southern California (Los Angeles and San Diego) will produce showers, scattered thunderstorms with the potential for hail, waterspouts, funnel clouds and an isolated tornado plus heavy mountain snow down to between 2000 and 3500 feet. Locally heavy snow will fall across much of Nevada and the mountains of the Four Corners' states. Phoenix will pick up more rain.

Midwest: Cold air plus east-to-southeast upslope winds and ample moisture will bring weekend snow to the Dakotas and Nebraska. Much of South Dakota and Nebraska could pick up 6 to 12 inches of snow or more by late Sunday. Gusty winds could cause some drifting. Farther south, a wintry mix could fall for a time this weekend over western and northern Kansas with rain over southeast Kansas and southern Missouri.

Northeast: The Northeast chilly will be chilly through the weekend. Snow will fall on interior sections of the region from northern West Virginia to northern Maine.

Hawaii: A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through Friday afternoon for Kahoolawe, Kauai, Lanai, Maui, Molokai, Niihau, Oahu and the Big Island. An upper-level low will continue to produce heavy rain and maintain the threat of flash flooding on all of the Hawaiian Islands this week. Prior rains have filled reservoirs and saturated slopes in places. Water in Morita Reservoir is continuing to be removed via pumps and a four by four foot opening into the spillway. State officials invoked emergency authority Thursday to enter private property and inspect earthen dams on the island of Kauai. A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions exist that could lead to sudden flash flooding. (National Weather Service (NWS))

NOAA Announces U.S. Spring Outlook

NOAA, in partnership with the National Interagency Fire Center, announced that despite periodic precipitation, NOAA's U.S. Spring outlook supports the potential for a significant wildfire season in the Southwest and central and southern Plains. "Recent storms have eased the drought situation in many areas of the country, but the rain and snow arrived too late to offset the impacts from months of record dry weather across the Southwest, resulting in the continuing potential for a dangerous fire season," said retired Air Force Brig. Gen. David L. Johnson, director of the NOAA National Weather Service.
Weak La Niña conditions, which developed this winter, contributed to significant drought concerns in the Southwest, central and southern Plains. "April through June is typically dry in the Southwest, so drought will very likely persist or even worsen until the thunderstorm season arrives this summer," said Ed O'Lenic, chief, forecast operations branch, NOAA Climate Prediction Center. "NOAA's outlook also indicates a continued drought concern for the southern and central Plains." "The National Interagency Fire Center's Seasonal Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for February through June 2006 calls for an above normal fire potential for Southern California, the Southwest, Southern Plains to Florida; and a below normal potential in the Northeast," said Rick Ochoa, National Interagency Fire Center fire weather program manager.

The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for dry conditions persisting through June in the Southwest and the southern and central Plains, despite temporary improvement in some areas. Also, drought is expected to expand in Kansas and eastern Colorado. Some drought improvement is predicted for areas in the northern Rockies and northern Plains, as well as the Mississippi Valley and eastern Plains. Drought is expected to continue in North Carolina and possibly expand into portions of the mid-Atlantic and Southeast.
For the nation as a whole, the U.S. Spring Outlook for April through June indicates below-normal precipitation for much of the central and southern Plains, as well as the Southeast and Gulf Coast. Above normal precipitation is favored across the northern Plains and Great Lakes region as well as Hawaii. The remainder of the country, including Alaska, has equal chances of above, near or below normal precipitation.

"There is a silver lining in today's announcement," said Johnson. "NOAA's National Hydrologic Assessment does not indicate a dramatic flooding potential this spring for the contiguous U.S." However, substantial snowpack in the West has produced areas of above average flood risk. Wet fall and near normal winter conditions have primed the Red River of the North, the boundary between North Dakota and Minnesota, for flooding this spring. Also, recent heavy rains across the Ohio Valley region and southern Mississippi have caused flooding on rivers, increasing the risk for future flooding.

Tropical Activity

There are no tropical disturbances in the Atlantic or Pacific Oceans. (National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

There has been no significant earthquake activity during this reporting period. (U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

In Missouri, twenty seven joint Federal/State PDAs have been completed, out of 37 scheduled counties. It is projected that all PDAs will be complete either late Friday, March 17 or early Saturday, March 18, 2006. (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

The National Preparedness Level remains at Level 2. Initial attack activity was moderate nationally with 231 new fires reported. Six new large fires were reported, five in the Southern Area, and one in the Rocky Mountain Area. Two large fires were contained in the Southern Area. Very high to extreme fire indices were reported in Arizona, Kansas, South Dakota, Wyoming, Nebraska, Illinois, Maryland, Arkansas, Florida, and Virginia.

In the last 24-hour period, ending at 12 p.m. EST Thursday, the State of Texas responded to 294 new fires. The State of Oklahoma has provided mutual aid for fire suppression operations in the Texas Panhandle during this week's fire siege. There were an estimated 49 homes threatened, two homes lost and 47 homes saved. There were six persons evacuated. The incident period for FEMA Major Disaster Declaration 1624, Texas Wildfires, remains open so claims for new damage since 1624 was declared can be submitted in declared counties and joint Preliminary Damage Assessments can be conducted to add counties as appropriate.

In Oklahoma there were a total of 132 fire responses during the past week with an additional 9,988 acres burned.  The incident period for FEMA Major Disaster Declaration 1623, Oklahoma Wildfires, remains open so claims for new damage since 1623 was declared can be submitted in declared counties and joint Preliminary Damage Assessments can be conducted to add counties as appropriate.

The strong winds that pushed wildfires across nearly a million acres of the bone-dry Texas Panhandle were easing early Thursday, but in Oklahoma, the fire danger was picking up. A series of wind-whipped grass fires broke out Wednesday in Oklahoma, charring more than 4,000 acres and briefly threatened homes near Oklahoma City.

Thursday morning, most of the state was under a red flag warning - meaning a critical danger of fires - because of the dry air pushing into the region and the forecast of 20-25 mph winds, the National Weather Service said. In Texas, where 50 mph wind gusts had swept a line of flames toward six Panhandle cities on Wednesday, the winds had shifted by Thursday morning and dropped below 10 mph.

Friday there are no Critical Fire Weather Areas. Rain will fall across much of Texas and Oklahoma. Fire weather concern is elevated for Arizona and New Mexico where surface winds will reach 15-20 mph and it will remain dry. In the southern States relative humidity levels will likely range from 25-35 percent in general as temperatures rise into the lower 70s. Sustained winds will be near 15 mph during the day before dying down in the evening.  (National Interagency Fire Center, State of Texas, media sources)

Disaster Declaration Activity

FEMA-1631-DR for Missouri was declared Thursday, March 16, 2006, for severe storms, tornadoes, and flooding that occurred during the Incident period of March 11-13, 2006. The Federal Coordinating Officer is Thomas J. Costello.
      
Individual Assistance has been designated for Christian, Hickory, Johnson, Monroe, Perry, Pettis, Randolph, Ste. Genevieve, and Saline Counties. Public Assistance has been designated for Bates, Christian, Howard, Jefferson, Monroe, Montgomery, and Washington Counties for debris removal and emergency protective measures. All counties in the State of Missouri are eligible to apply for assistance under the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program. Additional designations may be made at a later date after further evaluation.

FEMA-1624-DR, Texas, was amended effective March 16, 2006 to add the counties of Anderson, Bastrop, Deaf Smith, and Parker for Individual Assistance (already designated for Public Assistance Category B (emergency protective measures).

FEMA-1629-DR, Nevada, was amended effective March 16, 2006 to add Elko County for Public Assistance. (FEMA HQ)