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National Situation Update: Thursday, March 16, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Fire Threat Lessening on Central Plains

South: High pressure that brought an elevated fire risk to the South on Wednesday will give way to an approaching system out of the Plains. This means good news to the scorched areas of the Southern Plains where humidity levels will be on the rise and winds will be subsiding, putting an end to the fire threat for now. As this system progresses eastward, the tail end of the advancing front will be the focal point of showers and potentially severe thunderstorms across eastern Texas and western Louisiana. High pressure will hold on from the Deep South to the Mid Atlantic Thursday, extending fire danger conditions for another day.

West: Another winter storm comes ashore across the West on Thursday with gusty winds, heavy coastal rain, and increasing snowfall for the higher elevations of the Cascades and Siskiyous. Rainfall is expected to exceed two inches for the immediate coast over the next few days. Higher up, accumulating snowfall will extend to the Sierras, where as much as a foot of snow could fall through Friday. Winds will gust generally between 20 to 30 mph, with higher isolated coastal gusts. This is a precursor to what is expected to be a major winter storm barreling into the coast this weekend. This will once again enhance the heavy rain, heavy snow, and windy conditions and prolong their existence through the beginning of the week.

Midwest: Snow should begin Wednesday night across the High Plains, spreading eastward throughout the day. In the path of this storm are Minneapolis, Madison, and Milwaukee, each of which could see several inches of accumulating snow by nightfall. The highest totals of up to eight inches could fall on southern Minnesota and southern Wisconsin.

Northeast: The effects of a slowly-departing system will still be felt across New England on Thursday with winds gusting to 30 mph. A new system will reach the Northeast by late Thursday, and will continue its beeline towards the coast Friday, dropping several inches of snow from Northern Ohio to southern Pennsylvania.

Hawaii Flooding

Search and rescue efforts intensified Wednesday for victims of Tuesday morning's agricultural dam breech on Northern Kauai.  The Coast Guard reported the recovery of one body from Pacific waters downstream of the breech as seven residents remain unaccounted for. 

Access and assessment of damaged areas is restricted due to the eroded and weakened Morita Reservoir Dam downstream of the Ka Loko Dam, both privately owned. 
Pumping and releases have lowered the Morita Dam eight feet below capacity as the Army Corps of Engineers assesses its integrity.  Residents in twelve threatened homes below the Morita Dam received voluntary evacuation notices Tuesday. 

The State and Kauai County are prioritizing repairs to Highway 56, the closure of which isolates most northern communities including Kilauea (airport open), Hanalei, Haena, and Princeville.  Approximately 100 yards of the highway was washed out by rushing water east of Kilauea and a quarter mile downstream of Morita Dam.  The State Department of Transportation estimates one lane to open by 8 p.m. EST (3 p.m. locally) Wednesday.

Since initial storms and flooding on March 1 an American Red Cross assessment statewide indicates two homes destroyed, four with major damage, 15 minor, and 138 affected.  The two destroyed homes and 50 of the affected homes are on Kauai.  Periods of heavy rain are forecast though Friday and a Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for all Hawaiian Islands.

The State remains under a March 2 Governor's emergency proclamation.  The Hawaii State EOC remains activated 24 hours a day.  The Kauai County EOC is activated.
Two shelters are operating on Kauai with 12 evacuees Tuesday night, three Wednesday. 
Six State and local search and rescue teams and six K-9 teams are standing by for safe clearance to enter the search area.  The National Guard is deployed and providing aviation support.  The State of Hawaii continues damage assessment for previously flooded areas since March 1.

The U.S. Coast Guard continues air and surface search and rescue operations for unaccounted residents.  The Army Corps of Engineers is assessing the integrity of dams and reservoirs on Kauai.  The Small Business Administration conducted an assessment Tuesday and Wednesday.  The FEMA Pacific Area Office deployed a liaison to the State EOC on Tuesday and FEMA Region IX Duty Officer is monitoring. 

No Stafford Act assistance has been requested at this time. (FEMA Pacific Area office)

Missouri Storm Update

Severe storms and tornadoes caused damages in several Missouri counties beginning Saturday evening, March 11, 2006.

Continuing actions include:

• The State Emergency Operations Center (SEOC) is maintaining contact with local officials via daily conference calls until the situation stabilizes.
• The Missouri State Water Patrol assisted in one water rescue in Morgan County.  A MSWP Dive Team was requested by Randolph County officials to help recovery operations.
• The Missouri Department of Natural Resources has issued cleanup guidance for disposal of appliances, brush, hazardous waste, and household debris.  This guidance is being forwarded to County Commissioners.
• The Missouri Tornado Hotline (866-254-0140) was activated and staffed by AmeriCorps St. Louis from 9am to 5pm each day to process offers of donated goods, time or money, as well as requests for assistance. 
• Joint Federal/State Preliminary Damage Assessments for Public Assistance and Individual Assistance began Tuesday) and are continuing. (FEMA Region VII)

NOAA Releases Spring Outlook

On Thursday, March 16, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will release its annual Spring Outlook in conjunction with a news conference in Phoenix, Arizona.  While recent precipitation broke an extended dry spell in parts of the Southwest, emphasis will remain on the continuing long-term drought and wildfire hazards in the southwest, and the central and southern plains through June 2006.  In partnership with the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC), the products referenced will include NIFC's National Wildland Fire Outlook, the NOAA led multi-agency U.S. Drought Monitor, and NOAA's April-June seasonal outlooks for temperature, precipitation, and drought. (NOAA)

Tropical Activity

There are no tropical disturbances in the Atlantic or Pacific Oceans. (National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

A 4.7 magnitude earthquake occurred at 1:21 a.m. EST Wednesday, 1280 miles south-southwest of Anchorage. No other significant activity was noted during the reporting period. (U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

In Missouri, Joint FEMA/State Emergency Management Agency (SEMA) Preliminary Damage Assessments were completed in Saline, Pettis, Morgan, Hickory, Christian, Randolph, Monroe, Lincoln, Jefferson, St. Genevieve and Perry Counties on Wednesday, March 15, 2006.  The teams will continue doing damage assessments on Thursday.

In Kansas, a Public Assistance PDA for Douglas County is scheduled to begin March 23, 2006.(FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

The National Preparedness Level remains at Level 2. Initial attack activity was light nationally with 162 new fires reported. Very high to extreme fire indices were reported in Arizona, Kansas, South Dakota, Wyoming, Nebraska, Indiana, Arkansas and
Virginia.

In the last 24-hour period, ending at 12 p.m. EST, Wednesday, the State of Texas responded to 207 new fires that have burned 23,875 acres. There were an estimated 112 homes threatened and 112 homes saved. There were no persons evacuated.

One of the significant impacts of the Panhandle wildfires is the devastation of livestock which were trapped in the path of the fires. Agricultural losses from livestock have been estimated in the 3,000 to 10,000 range. The State Operations Center has developed a task force to facilitate an efficient and effective response to health threats posed by this loss. The Texas Animal Health Commission (TAHC), the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) and DPS Amarillo will coordinate direction of this operation. Critical support will be provided by the Texas Department of Criminal Justice (TDCJ), and the Texas Department of Transportation (TXDOT). A secondary impact is the loss of feedstock for the surviving livestock (grasses, crops, hay). Alternate means of providing immediate support are being initiated.

The East Amarillo Complex Fire, consisting of the Borger and I-40 Fires, has burned more than 705,000 acres, an area about three quarters the size of Rhode Island. The Fire is near Jerico, Texas in grass. As of Wednesday morning, the Borger Fire is 80% contained, and the I-40 Fire is 70% contained. Evacuation orders have been lifted. Nine residences and 80 outbuildings were lost.

 Thursday there are no predicted Critical Fire Areas as a large area of high pressure will cover much of the central states with somewhat cooler conditions. Oklahoma and northwestern Texas will remain fairly dry with afternoon temperatures in the 60s and relative humidity (rh) values of 20-25 percent. Sustained northerly winds of 15-25 mph will occur shortly after sunrise but will decrease during the day to near 15 mph when rh is lowest. Therefore only a marginal fire weather threat is anticipated Thursday.  (National Interagency Fire Center, State of Texas, NWS, media sources)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)