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National Situation Update: Sunday, March 12, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Severe Weather Forecast for the Midwest

West: A low pressure system and associated trough will produce rain over the Central and Southern California coasts. Yesterday's rainfall of over one inch brought an end to the record (143 day) dry streak in Phoenix. Snowfall will continue over the Mogollon Rim of Arizona through midday today. Heavy snow warnings continue and Flagstaff could receive up to 2 feet. Significant snow is also forecast for the rest of the Four Corners area and much of the mountain west.

Midwest: The frontal system extending from the Great Lakes to Texas combined with warm, humid air from the Gulf of Mexico will produce a multi-day spring severe weather outbreak over much of the Midwest and South (tonight's area indicated in red on the map). Southern Missouri, Illinois and Indiana are of particular concern with supercell thunderstorms, tornadoes, high winds and hail in the forecast. This activity is expected to move eastward tonight into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

The flood threat continues for the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Since mid-week, heavy rains have drenched an area from southeast Missouri to southern Indiana and northern Kentucky with four to 10 inches of rain. Flooding due to melting snow and recent rain had also been reported over parts of Lower Michigan.

To the north, wet snow is forecast to continue until Monday from the central Plains to the northern Great Lakes. Accumulations over six inches are possible from northern Nebraska and southern South Dakota to southern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

South: The cold front and abundant warm humid air will produce severe thunderstorms in northeast Texas, eastern Oklahoma, and Arkansas spreading eastward tonight and Monday through Arkansas, west Tennessee, and northern Mississippi.

Northeast: A weak warm front will produce rain and a few thunderstorms over the Mid-Atlantic spreading into New England as the day progresses. (NWS, media sources)

Volcano Activity

The current Color Code for Alaska's Augustine volcano is ORANGE.

Low-level eruptive activity continues at Augustine Volcano. The overall level of seismicity has decreased slightly from the levels observed during the past few days. There continues to be periods of prolonged volcanic tremor and small volcano-tectonic earthquakes. Block-and-ash-flows, rock avalanches and rock fall originating from the summit lava dome continue to be recorded by the seismic network, particularly at the east flank station.   (United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Volcano Observatory)

Tropical Activity

There are no tropical disturbances in the Atlantic or Pacific Oceans. (National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

The most significant earthquake during the last 24 hours occurred on Saturday March 11 at 11:29 pm EST. The magnitude 4.5 event was located in northern Alaska 81 miles east-southeast of Prudhoe Bay at a depth of 9.3 miles. (USGS Earthquake Hazards Program )

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)