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National Situation Update: Tuesday, March 7, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Severe Weather Chances Increase Each Day

Midwest:  Weather conditions across parts of the Plains and Upper Midwest will deteriorate today. Rain will be on the increase from Missouri to Minnesota, especially by afternoon. Portions of North Dakota and extreme northwest Minnesota may see some freezing rain in the morning. To the south, isolated severe storms could erupt across eastern Kansas and Oklahoma by evening. By tomorrow, scattered severe thunderstorms may affect areas from Illinois to Oklahoma.

West:  Unsettled weather conditions will continue from Washington through much of California with showers and mountain snow. Most areas will only see light precipitation. Critical wildfire conditions are a strong possibility for most of eastern New Mexico. By late tonight and tomorrow, a potent cold front will sweep rain and gusty winds into coastal areas of the Pacific Northwest.

South:  Except for a few morning showers across coastal sections of North Carolina and some isolated evening thunderstorms over parts of Oklahoma and extreme northern Texas, much of the Deep South will have a mostly sunny day. A few locations across the Rio Grande Valley may see 90 degrees and it will become even warmer later in the week. Dangerous wildfire conditions are expected in West Texas and western Oklahoma. Some severe thunderstorm activity will blossom across parts of northern Texas and Louisiana late tomorrow and severe weather may affect areas either side of the Mississippi River. Wind damage is likely and tornadoes are possible.

Northeast:  Temperatures will gradually moderate in the region each day. Today will be cold with highs ranging from the upper 20s around the St. Lawrence Valley to near 50 in northern Virginia.  (NWS, Media Sources)

California Levee Contingency Planning

Developed a target scenario involving multiple levee failures, inundating the Pocket of Sacramento City and portions of Yuba County to the north, caused by severe storms.

Met with Sacramento City and County contacts today (03/06/06) to discuss needs for federal assistance after possible levee failure.  Concerns identified during meeting:

• Bus drivers, high clearance vehicles and drivers, rail and, potentially, aircraft for evacuations.
• Ability of City and County to evacuate special needs populations.
• Locations of shelters for the City and County outside of City and County.

We've got a meeting scheduled with Yolo County tomorrow (03/07/06) regarding their contingencies for levee failure.  More agricultural, Yolo County is directly west of Sacramento County.  

We also plan to meet with the State tomorrow regarding the lack of regional evacuation plan and unresolved issues surrounding contra flow and transportation studies.  The state is responsible for the establishment and coordination of regional traffic flow via Interstate 5, Interstate 80 and Highway 50 and others. I-5, I-80 and Highway 50 are the main transportation corridors surrounding Sacramento.

Continued to develop the response plan including TPFDL and possible sites for Mob Centers, Staging Areas and shelters.  (FEMA Region IX)

Rainfall and Flooding in Hawaii

Damage assessment and recovery continue along Oahu's windward (northeast) slopes and areas of Maui and Kauai following heavy rainfall and flooding on March 1-3. 
Governor Lingle declared a State of Emergency, activating the National Guard and authorizing State disaster relief on March 2, 2006.

Rainfall of 10 to 22 inches over three days on windward Oahu resulted in widespread flooding, slides, damage to homes, roads and bridges, displaced residents, sewage releases, disrupted services and school closings. 

No fatalities or injuries were reported and services have restored to normal status.
The Hawaii State EOC in Honolulu is activated 11:00 am - 2:00 am  EST daily. 

The American Red Cross is finalizing damage assessments.  All three initial windward Oahu shelters have closed.  One Red Cross shelter is open with no residents served at this time.

The FEMA Pacific Area Office is interfacing daily with Hawaii State Civil Defense, and the FEMA Region IX Duty Officer in Oakland, CA is monitoring.  All immediate response requirements are being met at the local level.   No Federal assistance requested at this time.  (FEMA Region IX)

FCC, Others Face Katrina Phone Problems

Downed telephone lines and damaged cellular towers left emergency crews confused and isolated in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, experts told federal regulators Monday.
Julliette Saussy, director of Emergency Medical Service of New Orleans, said communications eroded as the waters rose and only got worse.

There was no way to communicate except by line of sight. Radios were not operable, most land lines and cell phones were useless and communications centers were under water.

Some 3 million telephone lines were knocked out as the violent storm hit the Gulf Coast on Aug. 29, Federal Communications Commission Chairman Kevin Martin said.  At least 38 911 call centers went down, and more than 1,000 cellular towers were out of service. As many as 20,000 calls failed to go through the day after the storm, and about 100 TV and radio stations were knocked off the air, he said.  Martin said he hopes the panel's work will help strengthen communications throughout the nation, especially in areas vulnerable to natural disasters.

In Jackson County, Miss., many first responders lacked the training in using backup systems such as satellite phones, said 911 director George Sholl.  Keith Parker, director of the National Association of Emergency Medical Service Officials, said the Mississippi Department of Health couldn't even reach local EMS agencies during the storm.
The lack of communication created times of confusion and chaos. There will always be catastrophic events, the question is will we be better prepared for the next one?  (Media Sources)

Scientists Say Sun's Next Cycle Stronger

A new computer model suggests that the next solar cycle will be more active than the previous one, potentially spawning magnetic storms that will be more severe and disruptive to communication systems.  The next sunspot cycle will be between 30 percent to 50 percent more intense than the last one, scientists said Monday.

The cycle will also begin a year later than expected, in late 2007 or early 2008, and peak around 2012, said Mausumi Dikpati of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado.  The new prediction is at odds with previous forecasts, which suggested that the intensity of the next solar cycle would be measurably smaller.

Accurately predicting the intensity of the sunspot cycle, which occurs about every 11 years, allows scientists to anticipate solar storms, which are caused by solar flares, or the giant eruptions that burst out from the surface of the sun.  Solar storms, which eject billions of tons of plasma and charged particles into space, can produce dazzling northern lights, but also disrupt power lines, radio transmissions and satellite communication.

The last time the solar cycle peaked was in 2001. During the last cycle, solar storms caused extreme radio blackouts in the Pacific, but the storms were not as severe as the ones that occurred in the late 1950s.

For decades, scientists have tracked the solar cycle and appearance of sunspots, but they have been unable to accurately predict the intensity or timing of solar storms, which increase as the number of sunspots increases.

Dikpati, of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, said her team tested the new computer model using previous solar cycle data and had a 98 percent accuracy.

David Hathaway, a solar astronomer with NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama, does not doubt that the next sunspot cycle will be stronger than the previous one.  But Hathaway said his own research suggests that the next cycle will occur late this year - earlier than what Dikpati predicted.

The current research is published in the latest Geophysical Research Letters. It was funded by National Science Foundation.  (Media Sources)

Volcano Activity

The National Weather Sevice has issued a Marine Weather Statement for very light ash fall from Augustine Island southeast to the Barren Islands until 11 pm EST.  Rock avalanches and pyroclastic flows are continuing and low-level ash emissions are being produced.  The current Color Code for Augustine is ORANGE.  (United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Volcano Observatory)

Tropical Activity

Tropical Storm 01W is dissipating over water and no further reporting is expected.

There are no other tropical disturbances in the Atlantic or Pacific Oceans. (National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

There was no significant earthquake activity during the previous 24 hours affecting the U.S. or U.S. interests.  (USGS Earthquake Hazards Program ,NOAA West Coast and Pacific Tsunami Warning System )

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)