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National Situation Update: Monday, March 6, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Unsettled Weather Moving Into West

West:  Unsettled weather will move into the West with rain and showers (and some thunder or small hail) in the lower elevations of the Northwest, Nevada and California, and snow in the mountains. Heavy snow is expected in the Sierras and Idaho's Sawtooth Mountains. Snow levels will be near 4000 feet in the Cascades and northern California, around 5000 feet in the Sierras and travel over I-80 could become difficult.

Midwest:  Precipitation will be at a premium in the Midwest today, but so will sunshine. Lots of clouds, but only scattered, light snow showers and flurries will speckle the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Mixed rain and snow showers are expected near the Ohio Valley, and a few rain showers are likely in Kentucky.

Northeast:  Chilly weather - below average temperatures - will continue to grip the Northeast. A few snow flurries may scurry through parts of New York state and far northern New England, and snow showers may whiten some of the higher peaks near the West Virginia-Virginia border. Rain showers will dot the lower elevations of West Virginia and Virginia.

South:  A scattering of showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two will dot the Carolinas and Georgia today, but nothing widespread or heavy is anticipated. Isolated storms could pop up along the central Gulf Coast and eastern Texas near a stalled out front. Temperatures are expected to be far above average in Oklahoma and Texas. Highs in the 80s, and even 90s in spots, will dominate Texas.  (NWS, Media Sources)

Weather Service Issues Flood Warnings For Northern California Rivers

The National Weather Service warned Sunday that a Northern California storm could cause flooding in portions of the Russian River and Napa River.

The service issued flood warnings for the Napa River at St. Helena for late Sunday night or early Monday morning and for the Russian River at Healdsburg for Monday morning.
The Napa River at St. Helena had risen to about 8 feet early Sunday afternoon, below the 19-foot flood level, said Jeff Kopps, a hydrologist at the National Weather Service in Monterey. The Russian River at Healdsburg had risen to about 3 feet, well below the flood level of 13 or 14 feet, he said.

Forecasters expect water levels to begin falling by early Monday on the Napa River and by noon on Monday for the Russian River, Kopps said.

The storm system, which developed out of the Gulf of Alaska, moved into Northern California early Sunday and wasn't expected to move through until midday Monday, Kopps said. High wind warnings for the Central California coast were in effect much of Sunday, Kopps said.  (NWS, Media Sources)

California Levee Contingency Planning

Today's update is relatively short, primarily limited to our review of the California Department of Social Services' (CDSS) response to the 15 point questionnaire submitted to them on Tuesday, February 28.  Here's what we've found:  

• The CDSS has been identified as the lead agency for mass care and shelter at the state level. 
• Responsibility for shelters for the Sacramento area is local government and the American Red Cross.  (ARC shelter operations typically involve the use of schools as shelter facilities.)
• The State Plan to support local governments should the State's master mutual aid system be implemented is to use State and County fair sites under the control of the California Department of Food and Agriculture.
• The ARC and local government are responsible for reporting the location and census of shelters to the Governor's Office of Emergency Services (OES) Regional Operation Centers (REOC).  This information is reported to the Operational Area EOCs and then passed up to the REOCs by way of the Regional Information Management System (RIMS).  (FEMA Region IX)

Congress Considering Another $20 Billion Aid To Hurricane-Impacted Zones

The federal commitment in the aftermath of Katrina, Rita, and Wilma has now hit $88 billion, with at least another $20 billion under consideration in Congress.

This has become the largest disaster relief effort the government has agreed to - more than the combined amount it spent for 9/11, the Florida hurricanes of 2004, the 1994 Northridge earthquake, and 1992's hurricane Andrew (in nominal dollars). It is equal to 20 percent of the US Defense budget for this fiscal year, as well as 20 percent of the $400 billion US budget deficit.

The bulk of federal spending is the direct result of hurricane Katrina, although the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) does not break the numbers down that way. Instead, it works on a state-by-state basis. So far, the government is obligated to spend $30 billion in Louisiana, which was hit by Katrina and Rita; $11 billion in Mississippi (Katrina); $2 billion in Alabama (Katrina); $2.6 billion in Texas (Rita); and $2.7 billion in Florida (mainly Wilma). Other states will receive an additional $2.5 billion.

These numbers, however, do not include a giant $11.5 billion block grant that was part of a December Department of Defense appropriations bill, because the money hasn't been awarded or allocated yet. Most of that money will go to Louisiana and Mississippi. It also does not include another $4.2 billion that may be allocated to pay homeowners who did not have flood insurance. And it does not include the cost of the Gulf Opportunity Zone, which will give companies a significant tax break if they invest in the region.

In addition, Congress has allocated billions more, though the money is not obligated to be spent yet.

This week, the Senate Appropriations Committee will hold hearings on a request for additional emergency spending to help homeowners. The governors of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama will be there.

According to a Jenny Manley, a spokeswoman for Sen. Thad Cochran (R) of Mississippi, the committee hopes to have a markup of the legislation by the end of the month. "We hope to have it to the president no later than Memorial Day," she says.  (Media Sources)

Volcano Activity

Unrest continues at Augustine (Alaska) Volcano. Seismicity remains above background. The number of small avalanches and rock falls have increased in the last day.  A minor seismic event was likely associated with a low-level ash plume, probably not more than 5000 feet above sea level.  The current Color Code for Augustine is ORANGE.

There have been no significant changes reported during the past 24 hours. (United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Volcano Observatory)

Tropical Activity

Tropical Storm 01W is downgraded to a Tropical Depression.  Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 29 mph and maximum wave heights are 10 feet. Tropical Depression 01W is expected to intensify slightly over the next 24 hours. There are no other tropical disturbances in the Atlantic or Pacific Oceans. (National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

A minor earthquake (magnitude 3.4) struck approximately 40 miles east from the Los Angeles Civic Center, CA at 5:43 am EST. No reports of damages or injuries.

There was no other significant earthquake activity during the previous 24 hours that affected the U.S. or U.S. interests.  (USGS Earthquake Hazards Program ,NOAA West Coast and Pacific Tsunami Warning System )

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)