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National Situation Update: Friday, March 3, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Stormy Weather To Continue for Many Parts of the U.S. on Friday

West:  A new storm system will hit the West Coast on Friday morning bringing heavy snow (5-15 inches) to the northwest California area. Winter storm warnings have been issued for the Sierra Nevada area. The forecast for the Lake Tahoe area on Friday shows one to two feet of snow accumulation.  Southern California may see some light rainfall with 3-6 inches of snow in the higher elevations. Light rainfall is expected in Oregon, Idaho, Nevada, and Utah. The storm will quickly move into the Plains area by Saturday.

Northeast:  A fast-moving storm has dumped considerable amounts of snow (4-7 inches) on Thursday in the region extending from southern New York state and northern Pennsylvania, to Connecticut, Rhode Island and Cape Cod. A band extending from central Pennsylvania to Long Island saw sleet and freezing rain in addition to several inches of snow. The storm is expected to move out to sea, but cooler temperatures and windy weather are forecast for Friday.

Midwest:  The temperatures in the Midwest are expected to range from the 20s-30s in the Great Lakes area to the 50s-60s in Kansas and Nebraska. The region should be dry on Friday, but some precipitation will develop over the weekend. 

South:  Cooler temperatures are expected in the South on Friday. Light showers are likely in New Mexico and northern Texas. Highs will range from the 50s in Tennessee and North Carolina to the 80s in Texas and Florida. (NWS, Media Sources)

Drought Conditions in Several Parts of U.S. Predicted to Continue

The following weather information, prepared by NOAA's National Drought Mitigation Center, provides a forecast for the next 10 days as well as a discussion of current drought conditions since last week's Drought Monitor Report.

During the next 5 days (March 2-6), a series of storm systems will continue the wet pattern from northern California to Washington State. The southern Plains will see a chance of precipitation as these systems work their way to the east, but a lack of available moisture will keep totals down. As the main storm system comes ashore on the Pacific Coast, more moisture will be available, bringing better precipitation chances toward the end of the period. Temperatures will continue to be warm over the High Plains and the Southwest, as a ridge will continue to dominate the region. Cooler temperatures are projected over the West Coast and the area west of the Mississippi River.

The 6-10 day outlook (March 7-11): With a trough dominating the West Coast, and another pushing off the East Coast, the weather pattern will remain active. Precipitation chances are above normal in the western and upper midwestern portions of the United States. Temperatures will remain cool along the West Coast and in the Southeast, associated with the two troughs along the coasts. Above-normal temperatures are expected in south Texas and the upper Midwest.

The Pacific Northwest and Rocky Mountains: An active week of wet weather brought several inches of rain along the Pacific Coast from northern California up to Washington. The continued wet pattern has much of Washington, Oregon, northern California, and Nevada well above normal for precipitation for the last 90 days. Some areas of Oregon and Idaho have totals that are more than 300% of normal for the time frame. The northern to central Rocky Mountains are having a good snow season, with most stations at or above normal for this time of year. But there is a clear division, and the southern Rocky Mountain region is well below normal.

The Southwest: Dry conditions continued to dominate the drought situation in the Southwest. In the last week, the only area to observe any precipitation was the extreme southeastern corner of New Mexico. The winter of 2006 will go down as the driest on record for numerous locations in both Arizona and New Mexico. Homeowners in the Tucson area have been forced to water cactus and other native plants in their landscapes to keep them alive. Phoenix again ended February with no measurable precipitation. For the first time ever, the months of November, December, January, and February were completely dry, without even a trace of precipitation. Abnormally Dry (D0) area was expanded to the north into southern Utah and Moderate Drought (D1) conditions were expanded westward out of Arizona into the southern tip of Nevada and southern California. At the end of the drought monitor period, parts of southern California did receive some much needed precipitation that helped in reducing the Abnormally Dry (D0) area in California. A new area of Abnormally Dry (D0) was added to the southern tip of the San Joaquin Valley, as short-term dryness has developed in this region over the last 90 days.

The Plains, Delta, and Corn Belt: Dry conditions dominated the region. As the month of February comes to a close, several locations in the High Plains region will have established new records for minimum total precipitation for the month. Streamflows in the region have steadily declined, along with a drop in the water table; many agricultural producers have started to brace themselves for another dry start to the growing season. Some producers are actually turning on irrigation systems in Nebraska to add some moisture to the soil before the start of the growing season. The last area without any drought designation in northeast Kansas was filled in with Abnormally Dry (D0) as this region continues to see short-term dryness. In the southern plains, north-central Texas experienced the greatest relief from recent rains. The Exceptional Drought (D4) region was reduced right up to the Oklahoma border as the area experienced 2-3 inches of rain. This rain, along with rains of the past several weeks, was enough to improve conditions to Extreme Drought (D3), but nothing more. The drought regions in the panhandle of Texas were expanded to push Severe Drought (D2) conditions into the Oklahoma panhandle. An area of Extreme Drought (D3) was added to include the Amarillo to Lubbock region, where crop loss and failures and very dry soils are being reported as the winter wheat crop, rated 89% poor to very poor, tries to get going. In south Texas, a new area of Exceptional Drought (D4) was added to include the area from San Antonio to Laredo to Corpus Christi. Record dryness over the last 12 months, crop failure, and a severe lack of soil moisture led to this expansion of drought conditions. In Oklahoma, the area of Exceptional Drought (D4) was expanded to include much of the eastern part of the state. Lack of soil moisture and several wildfires have affected the area. The Oklahoma Climate Survey has stated that the last 90, 120, and 180 days are the driest periods on record ever for Oklahoma. Tulsa, Oklahoma, has had its driest winter going back to 1888, with 1.59 inches of precipitation for the December-January-February time frame.

In the Corn Belt, there was an expansion of Severe Drought (D2) to include most of western Illinois and southeastern Iowa along with an expansion of Abnormally Dry (D0) and Moderate Drought (D1) conditions in eastern Missouri and Illinois. There are several reports of producers hauling water as stock ponds and wells have gone dry. The top few inches of the soil are also very dry, with several grass fires being reported. The streamflows, which typically show a late February rise in Illinois, are now flowing at record low levels.

In the Delta region, A slight reduction was made in the Abnormally Dry (D0) and Moderate Drought (D1) categories in Arkansas as the southern and eastern parts of the state received more moisture this last week and conditions slowly continued to improve. Even with the improvements, the last 12 months have been the driest on record for that time period, with Little Rock, Arkansas, having the 6th driest winter ever.

Lower Ohio Valley and Carolinas: The Abnormally Dry (D0) region in Kentucky expanded to the east and also merged with the Abnormally Dry (D0) region in the Carolinas. The hydrologic problems are not improving in this region, even with the most recent precipitation events. The Abnormally Dry (D0) and Moderate Drought (D1) conditions in North Carolina expanded to the east and west, reflecting the short-term dryness. Streamflows and water supplies are still a concern in this region, especially as the agricultural season is starting up. Reservoirs managers are continuing to hold water back in anticipation of draw-down during the warmer months ahead.

Alaska and Hawaii: A mixed week in Hawaii for precipitation. On Oahu, Kauai, and The Big Island, the windward side of the islands received 2-5 inches of rain this last week, continuing the wet pattern of the last few weeks. This has not changed any of the Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions, as the leeward sides of the islands are still experiencing Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions.

In Alaska, there were no changes for this week, as widely scattered precipitation fell across much of the state. The Abnormally Dry (D0) area did see up to half an inch of precipitation, but this was not enough to make changes to the Abnormally Dry (D0) status. (NOAA)

Volcano Activity

Unrest continues at the Augustine Volcano (Alaska). During the past week, seismicity has been relatively low but remains above background levels. Seismic data indicates that small rock falls and avalanches from the lava dome are occurring intermittently. Data also indicates that the lava dome at the volcano's summit continues to grow slowly. The Color Code for Augustine is still ORANGE. (United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Volcano Observatory)

Tropical Activity

There are no active tropical disturbances in the Atlantic or Pacific Oceans. (National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

A moderate earthquake (magnitude 5.3) struck approximately 158 miles east-northeast from Carolina, Puerto Rico at 6:35 pm EST on Thursday. No reports of damages or injuries. No other significant earthquake activity during the previous 24 hours that affected the U.S. or U.S. interests.  (USGS Earthquake Hazards Program)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)