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National Situation Update: Wednesday, June 28, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Major Flooding Problems

Northeast:  Parts of the Northeast are in for some major flooding over the next couple of days. Tropical moisture continues to stream northward and rainfall of over one foot has been recorded since the weekend from northern Virginia to eastern Pennsylvania. Many rivers, creeks and streams will be flooding and this will cause problems for property and roads. Remember to avoid driving around flooded roadways. The rain will end overnight across the Middle Atlantic region except for parts of eastern Pennsylvania and New York. The heaviest rain will slide eastward overnight from the I-81 corridor toward the I-95 corridor. Flooding is likely across southeastern New York.

West:  Look for afternoon thunderstorms across the Intermountain West, the Southwest, and parts of California on Wednesday. Highs in the 90s will remain in interior sections of the Northwest from Spokane, Wash. to Boise, Idaho and parts of California. Highs will eclipse 100 degrees across much of the Desert Southwest.

Midwest:  Weather conditions will be unsettled around the Great Lakes due to an upper-level storm system that will slowly rotate through Michigan. Scattered thunderstorms will develop from Wisconsin and Illinois eastward to Ohio. Look for isolated severe thunderstorms from the Mid-Mississippi River Valley west along I-70 to eastern Colorado on Wednesday. Highs on Wednesday should range from the 60s in Upper Michigan, to the 70s around the Great Lakes. Elsewhere, the 80s will prevail from the Ohio River Valley into the Upper Midwest, with some in Kansas.

South:  Much of the South will be very warm and dry for the rest of this week with only a smattering of mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The best chance for afternoon thunderstorm will be in Florida, along the Southeast coastline, and back far West Texas. Afternoon highs on Wednesday will top out in the 80s over northern sections of the region like Kentucky and Tennessee. The 90s will prevail from the Carolinas, Florida, west to Oklahoma, and Texas. Highs in the triple-digits are in the forecast for Southwest Texas along the Rio Grande.   (NWS, Media Sources)

NOAA National Weather Service Operations

A total of 9 Weather Forecast Offices along the east coast issued 145 Flash Flood Warnings for the past two days affecting 8 states and the District of Columbia.  So far during this period, 47 additional flood events were reported.  Of these, warnings were issued for 41 flood events.  The average lead time for the warnings was 71 minutes.  (NWS)

Region III Severe Weather Continues

The mandatory evacuation ordered for the Rockville area of Montgomery County, MD is ongoing.  Engineers on-site at the Needwood Dam have found cracks in the dam face and suspect structural damage.  As of 3:00 am EDT, the engineers predicted the structural integrity of the dam may be comprpmised and failure of the dam could be iminent.  Evacuation of the approximately 1,200 families (700 single-family, and a 500-family apartment complex) around the Needwood Lake Dam progressed smoothly with County officials going door-to-door to notify affected families.  Most families are relocating to alternate locations and the shelters are not being heavily used.  The National Weather Service is extending the current Flash Flood Warning for Montgomery County, MD for an additional six hours.  ( Montgomery EOC, FEMA FOC)

FEMA Region III issued an Alert in response to severe weather, high winds and flooding that began on Friday  June 23, 2006 and continues.  Region III is preparing to activate the Regional Response Coordination Center on  June 28, 2006 at 7:00 am EDT.  This event has impacted the District of Columbia, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Virginia. The Alert message was transmitted to the following ESFs: 1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11, 12  (FEMA FOC)

Rains temporarily subsided through the majority of the region with only isolated heavy rain in various pockets.  However, this lull in rain is only temporary as the western pressure system moves east across Pennsylvania and a "tropical-like" system moves north along the coast from North Carolina into the Chesapeake Bay area.  This "tropical-like" system has similarities to a tropical depression without the signature rotation.
The western pressure system will bring rain ranging from 1-3 inches in western Pennsylvania, 2-4 inches in central Pennsylvania and potentially in excess of 6 inches in eastern Pennsylvania dependent on its convergence with the northward moving storm system.

In the District of Columbia, emergency managers are still battling high water on roadways and basement flooding in government buildings.  The District has not reported significant impacts to individual residents or damage to public infrastructure beyond their capabilities.  They have, however, requested a FEMA Liaison to provide guidance with continued pending weather and subsequent river cresting.

Delaware was able to enter some of the impacted areas in Sussex County today; however continuing rain and high water are preventing detailed assessments.  The northward moving storm system is expected to hit Delaware area within the next 12 to 16 hours bringing high winds and widespread rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches.  This system will also bring sustained winds of 20-30 mph with gusts of 35 mph and coastal sustained winds of 34-40 mph.  The National Weather Service has posted a coastal flood warning along the Chesapeake Bay with sea heights 1-2.5 feet above normal.  A FEMA Liaison is on site at the State Emergency Operations Center (SEOC).

In Maryland, emergency managers continued with local damage assessments while the joint Federal/State Preliminary Damage Assessment (PDA) teams convened at the SEOC.  PDA teams will initially focus on Dorchester, Caroline, Anne Arundel, Prince George's and Montgomery Counties with the potential for additional counties.  A coastal flood warning has been issued for Anne Arundel County and the Western Shore.

Also in Maryland, 28 people were evacuated to Maryland City Company 27 Firehouse from the Town of Laurel when 6 gates were opened in the T Howard Duckett Dam.  Further gate openings and evacuations are possible.  Baltimore City opened one shelter at NW high school for 72 people; resulting from a combination of residents from a homeless shelter that flooded, and an apartment building where the roof collapsed.  The State has not yet declared a State of Emergency.

Conditions in Pennsylvania worsened throughout the day as areas began to receive the additional rain from the western moving pressure system.  Pennsylvania partially activated their EOC.  The majority of rivers and streams in eastern Pennsylvania will crest above flood stage to varying degrees.  The Susquehanna is expected to crest above flood stage with moderate to severe levels of damage and portions reaching record crest heights.  Two dams in Pennsylvania were overtopped in Monroe and Wayne Counties.  Specific information pertaining to damage downstream was unavailable at the time of this report.  The City of Scranton began evacuations of low lying areas around the Lackawanna River as they closed their flood gates and sounded emergency sirens.  The National Weather Service issued a tornado warning for Jefferson County; FEMA has received unconfirmed indications of an actual touchdown.

The eastern part of Pennsylvania is becoming a critical concern for emergency managers as the western pressure system and the tropical-like system from the south converge somewhere in the eastern counties.  These systems should converge over the night time hours causing additional concerns if evacuations are required.  The combined systems should move readily out of the area.  Main stem reaches of rivers throughout Pennsylvania will begin to crest tomorrow morning and into the mid-day.  Forecasts of potential main stem flooding are inconclusive; however minor to moderate flooding is expected along the Susquehanna and portions of the Delaware Rivers.

The Virginia EOC has increased is activation to "readiness level."  The tropical-like system will be moving into Virginia tonight and may produce 5 to 6 inches of rain within an hour depending on the size of the bands and how quickly they move.  The storm is currently moving at 20 to 25 mph.  Virginia can expect to see an average of an additional 2 to 3 inches of rain.  Isolated tornadoes are also possible.  Sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are possible especially in the coastal areas.

State Emergency Management Offices continue to monitor the situation and compile damage reports for impacted counties.  States are coordinating information sharing and localized damage assessments as necessary.  Maryland and Delaware have both requested FEMA Liaisons and are conducting local damage assessments.  The District of Columbia has also requested a FEMA Liaison.  A joint/Federal PDA in Maryland begins today in Dorchester and Caroline Counties. 

FEMA Region III is meeting the request to provide both DEMA and MEMA with State Liaisons and PDA Teams in Maryland and working to meet the request from the District of Columbia.  Regional Management continues with contingency planning to support additional requests for assistance in other states, if necessary.  (FEMA Region III)

Tropical Activity

Atlantic Special Tropical Disturbance Statement, June 28, 2006 12:15 am EDT
Surface observations indicate that gale force winds are occurring over portions of the Chesapeake Bay as the low center moves across the bay.  However...the low has limited and poorly organized thunderstorm activity.  Gale warnings are already in place for the affected areas.  The low is expected to continue moving rapidly north-northeastward and merge with a frontal zone by late today.

Atlantic:  Satellite and radar information continue to indicate that the low pressure system moved inland over southeast North Carolina near Morehead City with the upper low now inland just to the north near Elizabeth City, NC. This system no longer has the potential of becoming organized into a tropical system.  However...heavy rains and thunderstorms remain a threat to northeast North Carolina through Virginia to beyond New York moving north during the night. This system could cause flash flooding as it continues on its northward path.

Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:  No tropical storm activity.

Eastern Pacific: No tropical storm activity.

Western Pacific: Tropical Storm 03W (Jelewat) is about 215 nautical miles southwest of Hong Kong and poses no threat to United States interests.  (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

There was no significant earthquake activity during the past 24 hours.  (United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, NWS, West Coast-Alaska Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

Current Situation:  Initial attack activity was moderate throughout the nation with 258 new fires reported. Fourteen new large fires were reported: five in California, one in Colorado, two in Florida, one in Idaho, four in Nevada, and one in New Mexico. Six large fires were contained: two in California and one each in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, and Idaho.

Red Flag Warnings: Dry lightning in western and southern Utah and across northern and most of central and east-central Nevada. Also for dry lightning in the northern Sierras and east to the Nevada border.

Fire Weather Watches: Dry lightning in western Colorado, southwest Idaho, and northern California

Weather Discussion: A high pressure will continue to bring very warm temperatures to the western states today. Thunderstorms are expected across much of the western states with drier states over the Great Basin, northern Arizona, western Colorado, and southwest Wyoming. A warming and drying trend will move from west to east across Alaska with the possibility of thunderstorms.    (National Interagency Fire Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)