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National Situation Update: Thursday, June 22, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Wildfires in the West - Storms in the Midwest

Midwest: A cold front moving eastward through the Ohio Valley that is meeting warm moist air moving northward from the Gulf of Mexico has the potential to create additional severe thunderstorms, large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes on Wednesday evening and Thursday. The additional rainfall may cause localized flash flooding as it moves eastward. The storm system is expected to bring severe weather to the area extending from Kansas to Ohio. Highs in the Midwest will range mainly in the 70s and 80s on Thursday.  

South: Except for some rain storms in the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle areas on Thursday, most of the South will see very hot, sunny, and muggy weather. Highs will be in the 90s from the Carolinas to the Southern Plains.

Northeast: Hot and humid weather is forecast for most of the Northeast with highs in the 80s and 90s. There will be a chance of isolated thunderstorms through most of the region.

West: The vast majority of the West will continue to see very hot, dry, and sunny weather. Temperatures will generally range from the 70s in the Pacific Northwest to 110 degrees in the Desert Southwest. Some thunderstorms are forecast for Colorado and New Mexico. (National Weather Service, Media sources)

Arizona

The 1,770 Brins Fire located in timber two miles northeast of Sedona, Arizona remains five percent contained as of yesterday evening.  The threat to homes, mostly in Oak Creek Canyon, has increased from 400 to 581 overnight with 40 businesses also threatened; no structures currently damaged.  Over 600 homes remain evacuated in Oak Creek and subdivisions of Sedona; two Red Cross shelters remain activated.  Erratic winds and daytime high temperatures reaching 97 degrees are reported.  A Type-1 Incident Management Team assumed command yesterday evening.  Seven helicopters, 31 engines and 14 crews are assigned; 549 total personnel.  A Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG) was approved for this fire on June 18.  (FEMA Region IX, Arizona Division of Emergency Management,  and media reports)

California Wildfire

The 10,272-acre Perkins Fire in Santa Barbara County, California, is reported 35 percent contained with three homes destroyed; no other structures threatened.  No anticipated date of full containment.  A Type-2 IMT is assigned with eight helicopters, 35 engines and 31 crews; 831 total personnel.  No FMAG requested at this time. (FEMA Region IX  and media reports)

Colorado Wildfires

MATO VEGA (FEMA-2646-FM-CO):  This 8,960 acre fire, possibly caused by lightning, is burning in timber, logging slash, and grass, eight miles northeast of Ft. Garland, CO on the northwest side of US Highway 160.  A Type 2 IMT is assigned.  Two hundred-eighty primary structures, an FAA communication site, and commercial resources are potentially threatened.  No structures have been destroyed.  The evacuation of the community of Wagon Creek to the south continues.  US Highway 160 remains closed.  Extreme fire behavior with spotting up to one-half mile was reported.  The fire is five percent contained.  There is no estimated containment date. 

LION CREEK:  This 500 acre human-caused fire is burning in ponderosa pine, pinyon pine, brush and grass in the Manti-La Sal National Forest, five miles northwest of Paradox, CO.  Media reports the fire resulted from a vehicle accident.  SA Type 2 IMT has been ordered.  Twenty primary structures are potentially threatened.  No structures have been destroyed.  Structure protection is in place for several homes.  Several homes and a campground near Buckeye Reservoir have been evacuated.  County roads are closed.  Extreme rates of spread with torching and spotting were reported.  The fire is zero percent contained.  There is no estimated containment date.  (FEMA Region VIII, U.S. Forest Service, CO OEM)

New Mexico Wildfire

Rivera Mesa Fire (New Mexico) On June 21, 2006, the State of New Mexico resubmitted a request for a fire management assistance declaration for the Rivera Mesa Fire burning in Colfax and Mora Counties.  At the time of this request, the fire threatened approximately 120 homes in the communities of Ocate, Miami, and Rayado causing the evacuation of 15 persons.  It is also believed several more persons have evacuated from these communities, but they are unable to confirm the additional numbers since the evacuations are voluntary and no shelters have been established.  The fire started on June 16, 2006, and has burned in excess of 10,000 acres of State and private land.  The fire is reported at 10% containment.  The State is reporting a shortage of firefighting resources due to the 16 other large fires burning within the State.  The Principal Advisor describes this fire as extreme.  Winds are forecasted at 20-30 mph over the next several days with temperatures in the 90s and relative humidity at approximately 10%.  It is determined that the Rivera Mesa Fire threatened such destruction as would constitute a major disaster.  The State's request was approved June 21, 2006, at 1:16 PM EDT and was designated as FEMA-2647-FM-NM.  (FEMA HQ)

Utah Wildfires

LEEDS:  This 375 acre fire of unknown cause is burning in brush and grass, southwest of Leeds, UT.  Twenty-five primary and two commercial structures and 15 outbuildings are potentially threatened.  No structures have been destroyed.  Running fire with rapid fire growth and long range spotting fire behavior was reported.  The fire is 30 percent contained.  There is no estimated containment date.

NAVAJO MOUNTAIN 1:  This 3,350 acre lightning-caused fire is burning in timber, pinyon pine, and juniper on the Utah side of the Navajo Reservation, approximately 35 miles west/northwest of Page, AZ.  The Type 1 IMT transferred command of the incident back to the local unit on June 20.  Cultural areas are threatened.  No structures are threatened.  No structures have been destroyed.  Difficult terrain and the remote location continue to hamper containment efforts.  Smoldering with single tree torching fire behavior was reported.  The fire is 75 percent contained.  There is no estimated containment date.

DUTCH:  This 1,760 acre human-caused fire is burning in grass, sagebrush and juniper, 30 miles southeast of Wendover, UT.  No structures are threatened.  No structures have been destroyed.  The fire is 90 percent contained.  There is no estimated containment date.  No new information was received.

BELL:  This 990 acre fire of unknown cause is burning timber, grass and brush, ten miles southwest of Fairfield, UT.  No structures are threatened.  No structures have been destroyed.  The fire was 100 percent contained June 20.  This is the final report on this fire unless significant activity occurs.   (FEMA Region VIII, U.S. Forest Service)

Wyoming Wildfire

ISABELLE:  This 500 acre fire of unknown cause is burning in timber, 25 miles southwest of Laramie, WY.  A Type 2 IMT is assigned.  Nine primary structures and 35 outbuildings are potentially threatened.  No structures have been destroyed.  Poor access is hampering containment efforts.  Fire behavior including creeping, occasional torching and short runs with spotting was reported.  The fire is five percent contained.  There is no estimated containment date.  (FEMA Region VIII, U.S. Forest Service)

Study Indicates Increased Earthquake Risk on San Andreas Fault

A recent study published in the journal Nature indicates the southern end of the San Andreas fault near Los Angeles may be overdue for a large earthquake. The lower section of the fault has not caused a major earthquake in more than 300 years. The 100-mile southern segment of the fault last ruptured in 1690, causing an estimated 7.7 magnitude earthquake, but caused little injury or damage because there was a small population in the area at that time. An earthquake of that magnitude today in the southern segment of the fault would put the densely populated Los Angeles area at considerable risk for deaths, injuries, and property damages.
 
The new study indicates that stress has been building up since the 1690 quake. The study used satellite radar and global positioning data to measure the movement of the southern San Andreas between 1985 and 2005. Scientists believe that small movements along a fault can relieve strain. The results indicate the southern end of the fault has shown little movement and that significant strain is building up. The fault's slip rate, or average annual movement, was measured to be about an inch a year.

The San Andreas fault was responsible for the 1906 San Francisco earthquake that led to approximately 3,000 deaths.  (Source:  Associated Press)

Tropical Activity

Atlantic:  Although a tropical wave and some thunderstorms are currently moving westward in the Caribbean, the upper-level winds are not favorable for tropical cyclone development. Meteorologists will continue to monitor progress of storm activity in this area.

Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:   No tropical storm activity.
Eastern Pacific:   No tropical storm activity.
Western Pacific:   No tropical storm activity. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No significant earthquake activity during the past 24 hours in the United States or its Territories.  (Source: United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

As of 7:30 a.m. EDT June 21, there were 107 new fires reported. Six (6) new large fires were reported, 3 in the Eastern Great Basin Area, and one (1) each in the Southwest, Western Great Basin, and Southern Areas. Four large fires were contained, two in the Southern Area, and one each in the Southwest and Eastern Great Basin Areas. Very high to extreme fire indices were reported in Alaska, Arizona, California, Montana, Utah, Colorado, Nebraska, New Mexico, Nevada, North Dakota, Texas and Wyoming.

National Preparedness Level is 3 (on a scale of 1 to 5).

There is not much chance for any appreciable rainfall in the western U.S. for the next few days. The extremely dry conditions have increased the threat of wildfires in most western states, especially the Desert Southwest. Since January 1, approximately 3.1 million acres have burned due to wildfires which is far above the average of 900,000 acres for the same period in a normal year. (National Interagency Fire Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

FEMA-1643-DR-NH - Amendment Number 3 which adds the area of Grafton County for Public Assistance.  (FEMA HQ)