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National Situation Update: Monday, June 12, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Tropical Storm Alberto

Alberto strengthens and a Tropical Storm Warning is issued for the gulf coast of Florida from Englewood to Indian Pass.

At 5:00 am EDT the center of Tropical Storm Alberto was located near latitude 26.2 north longitude 87.2 west or about 275 miles south-southwest of Apalachicola Florida and about 320 miles southwest of Cedar Key Florida.

Alberto is moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph and a turn to the northeast is expected over the next 24 hours. Based on the current forecast Alberto will move ashore the Florida Gulf Coast about 140 miles north of Tampa Tuesday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds have increased and are now near 50 mph with higher gusts.  Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 230 miles to the northeast and southeast of the center. The large extent of tropical storm force winds means that these winds will be felt along the coast well in advance of the arrival of the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb/29.56 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels can be expected over a large portion of the warning area.

Storm total rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts to 10 inches are possible through Tuesday across portions of central and northern Florida and southeastern Georgia mainly along and to the right of the track of Alberto.

Isolated tornadoes are possible over west-central and northwestern Florida tonight.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Gulf Coast of Florida from Englewood to Indian Pass. A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. A tropical storm watch remains in effect from south of Englewood to Bonita Beach.

The cyclone has become better organized. Computer model guidance is not in very good agreement on the future track of Alberto which is still embedded in a environment of strong southwesterly shear. The official forecast has been shifted just a little to the left of the previous track.

The large extent of tropical storm force winds dictates a tropical storm warning at this time.  These winds are expected to reach the coast well in advance of the arrival of the center. The next reconnaissance aircraft will be in the system in about three hours.

Preparations and Preparedness:

• There was a conference call at 12:30 pm EDT Sunday to discuss the changes in storm intensity and discuss preparedness plans.  Another conference call is scheduled for Monday at the same time.
• FEMA's Region 4 Thomasville RRCC has activated to Level 3, mirroring the Florida State EOC operating hours.   
• The Florida State EOC has activated to a level 2 (partial) activation from 7:00 am to 7:00 pm. EDT.  A FEMA State Liaison Officer is at the State EOC to assist with coordination efforts.  There have been no requests for Federal assistance.  The State has no evacuations planned at this time.
• The Georgia Emergency Operations Center remains at normal level, with no FEMA State Liaison Officer on-site, and no requests for Federal assistance. 
• Alabama EOC is not activated and there is no FEMA Liaison Officer on site.  There has not been a State request for Federal assistance.
• Mississippi EOC is not activated and there is no FEMA Liaison Officer on site.  There has not been a State request for Federal assistance

FEMA Logistics:  Nothing new to report.  (Source: USDOC/NOAA/National Weather Service, FEMA Region IV, FEMA HQ)

Significant National Weather

West: Showers will be scattered west of the Cascades in the Pacific Northwest and northern California. A few thunderstorms could develop over the eastern portions of Washington and Oregon, northern Idaho and western Montana. Stray thunderstorms may develop in the Rockies, and a few of them could roll out over the plains of eastern Colorado and northeastern New Mexico late in the day.

Midwest: The vast majority of the Midwest will be dry dominated by a ridge of high pressure.  However, a few showers and thunderstorms could develop over the Great Plains.

South: Showers and thunderstorms will be scattered along and north of a slow-moving cold front extending from the Carolinas through the Deep South into northern Texas. The heaviest showers are expected in eastern North Carolina. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches are possible over the Florida peninsula through Tuesday with 3 to 5 inches possible over the Florida Keys as moisture associated with Tropical Storm Alberto moves ashore in advance of the storm center (see The National Hurricane Center http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ latest information on Alberto).

Northeast: A low pressure center moving out to sea east of Virginia will produce showers and thunderstorms for Virginia, West Virginia and the Delaware-Maryland-Virginia (Delmarva) Peninsula. A few showers may work as far north as Pennsylvania and New Jersey. (National Weather Service, Media sources)

Tropical Activity

Atlantic: No tropical storm activity.

Caribbean Sea: The only significant activity is Tropical Storm Alberto as discussed above.

Pacific: No tropical storm activity. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)