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National Situation Update: Saturday, October 28, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Powerful Storm System to Hit the Northeast

Northeast:  
A wet storm system over the nation's south will spread rain and increasing wind into the Middle Atlantic States then into New England Saturday. 

The northern moving system will join with a cold front moving southeastward from the Great Lakes; many areas are forecasted to receive 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, and some local amounts over 3 inches may bring flash flooding. Flood watches have been posted from West Virginia into New England.

The primary weather worry with this developing storm will be wind. High wind watches are already in effect over most of the Northeast coast, from east Maine to Delaware, including Boston, Providence, New York City, and the Jersey Shore. Much of Pennsylvania and western New York are also under high wind watches. 

Gale warnings extend from Eastport, Maine to Virginia, with gusts along the coast of more than 50 mph possible. As the cold front merges with this coastal system, west to northwest winds will intensify in the eastern Great Lakes and Middle Atlantic states with sustained winds from 20 to 40 mph and possible gusts approaching 60 mph, especially over higher terrain and near the lakeshore.
With many trees weakened by the snowstorm two weeks ago, these high winds may down additional trees in the Buffalo and surrounding area. Power outages in parts of the Northeast may result from strong winds.
 
South:
The Southeast is expected to be wet, windy and cooler. Thunderstorms with rain will move through southern Florida, while drier weather is forecasted for residents of the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast.

Beaumont, Texas received almost 6 inches of rain in the past 24 hours, triggering more flooding of already flooded rivers like the Neches and Calcasieu.

Lake Charles, LA. picked up over 10 inches of rain. 

Dry weather is forecasted for the next 3 days. In fact, it looks like a delightfully mild weekend from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Southern Plains. Warm weather should return north of the Red River into Oklahoma and parts of Texas.

 In the Southern Appalachians, snow may fall over the highest elevations of the Smokeys. Gusty northwest winds will be the most widespread weather effect in the Southeast, some gusts above 40 mph can be expected. 

Midwest:
A new cold front will move rapidly through the Great Lakes by early Saturday. Chilly, strong cold winds over the still warm lake waters will enhance precipitation, mainly in the area from Michigan to Ohio. 

20 to 40 mph sustained winds, with occasional gusts to 50 mph (especially near the lakeshore) will make it very cold. 

Missouri, South Dakota, Nebraska and Kansas will see some warming; highs should be in the 60s to the 70s.

West:
Snowmelt should be rapid in the Colorado Front Range with highs in Denver approaching 70 degrees. 

There will be warm sunshine from the Rockies to the Great Basin and West Coast. Cool westerly winds should warm the area from Montana north to the Canadian border.

Warm dry winds in Southern California will keep a high fire danger through Saturday. These offshore winds should turn onshore later in the weekend and reduce the fire threat and danger.   (NWS, Media Resources)

Weekend Weather Watch / Northeast

New York SEMO has announced they will be operational this coming weekend in anticipation of problems that might result from the expected storms coming through this weekend. Region II's JFO in Albany has detailed a LNO to be present in the SEMO EOC during this period; with other staff there on standby.

Region II RRCC will remain at a Level III, with personnel designated to closely monitor the situation.

Esperanza Fire in Southern California Update

A red flag warning remains in effect until 02:00 am EDT Sunday, October 29, for gusty winds and low relative humidity across portions of southern California.  California Division of Forestry, Riverside County Fire Department, Banning Police and Fire, and the US Forestry Service are on the scene.  39,000 acres have burned and the fire is 25 percent contained. The fire location is Twin Pines in the Cabazon area of Riverside County.  Extreme fire behavior was reported. Evacuations are in effect.  1,750 firefighters and personnel were using air tankers, helicopters and bulldozers trying to contain this fire.  (RIX, Incident Command Center, Calif. Dept. of Forestry and Fire Protection, Riverside County Fire Dept., Media Resources)

Hawaii Continues Earthquake Recovery Efforts

All shelters have closed. All schools are open. All electrical power has been restored. All Public Assistance Preliminary Damage Assessments will be completed in the next few days. The US Army Corps of Engineers will begin dam safety inspections for Kauai and Hawaii Counties Sunday, October 29. Two Disaster Recovery Centers opened October 27. A total of 414 applications have been received. The State EOC and the Hawaii County EOC remain activated and operate from 6:00 am to 6:00 pm HST. Kawaihae Harbor has resumed operations while assessments and repairs continue.  (FEMA Region IX)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:
Tropical storm formation is not expected through Sunday.

Central and Eastern Pacific:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the final advisory on Tropical Depression 18-E which was centered about 250 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.

Elsewhere tropical storm formation is not expected through Sunday.

Western Pacific:
No significant activity to report. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

Alaska (FEMA-1666-DR-AK) major disaster declared October 27, 2006 for an urban fire that occurred August 3-4, 2006 in the city of Hooper Bay, Alaska. Public Assistance was approved for the city of Hooper Bay.     (FEMA HQ )