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National Situation Update: Sunday, October 22, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Cold Weather Continues Over Much of the U.S.

Midwest:
A cold front with rain showers will move eastward through the mid-Mississippi Valley, southern Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley into the Northeast Sunday afternoon.

Rain will change to snow over eastern Iowa, southern and central Wisconsin and parts of Lower Michigan. 

On Monday, a cold northwest flow over Lakes Superior and Michigan is forecasted to produce locally heavy lake effect snows over parts of Upper Michigan, northern and western Lower Michigan and possibly northern Indiana.

Northeast:
A new cold front will move into Upstate New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Virginia, and West Virginia bringing scattered showers.

High temperatures on Sunday will range from 40s near the Canadian border to the 60s in the Mid-Atlantic region.

South:
Rain and thunderstorms are forecasted from southern Mississippi to south-central Georgia.

A strong cold front will advance southward into the western and the northern Gulf, Florida Panhandle, eastern Georgia and the central Carolinas by Sunday evening.

Showers will precede the cold front across the Southeast.

Florida will have one additional hot record-setting day before the cold front moves in.

West:
The West will be dry and sunny with little active weather in the region.

Temperatures are forecasted in the 30s and 40s over Montana, Wyoming and Colorado but 70s and 80s in most of California and 90s in southwest Arizona.

The National Weather Service issued a flash flood watch for the Hawaiian Islands through Sunday. Heavy showers and thunderstorms are projected to hit the area throughout the weekend. Forecasters warned the recent earthquakes have left unstable ground and heavy rain could cause landslides. Niihau, Kauai and Oahu will see the most rain during the new storms. (National Weather Service, Various Media Sources)

New York State Storm Recovery

In western New York additional rain may impede debris clean up efforts and cause some urban and small stream flooding.

There are 9,193 customers still without electrical service. Estimated time of complete restoration was midnight Saturday, 10/21/06. Currently 1,255 utility personnel are working to restore power.

Federal support currently totals 40 U.S. Coast Guard personnel and 11 FEMA responders. The New York National Guard has 234 Active Duty troops assigned to recovery assistance.

As of October 21, 2006, three (3) ARC shelters remained open serving 61 people. The ARC will close shelters and consolidate operations as the shelters population declines and anticipates that the sheltering operation will be concluded Sunday, 10/22/2006.

Mobile feeding site is operational in Amherst and two fixed site Emergency Response Vehicle (ERV) units opened with the evening meal on 10/19. Snacks are being distributed. Drop site feeding began at lunch for chainsaw crews.

Clean up kits are being distributed to affected residents in the impacted areas.  (FEMA Region II, New York State EOC)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:
Tropical storm formation is not expected through Sunday.

Central and Eastern Pacific:
At 5:00 am EDT October 22, Tropical Storm Paul with wind speeds of 52 mph was located about 345 miles south-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. Paul may possibly reach Hurricane strength during the next few days, however there is no threat to the U.S. or any U.S. territories.

Western Pacific:
No significant activity to report. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 1 on a scale of 1 (low) - 5 (high)
National Fire Activity

• Wildfire activity:  Light (51new fires)
  
• New large fires:  0
  
• Large fires contained:  0
  
• Uncontained large fires:  2
  
• The Bar Complex fire (Three Fires) in Shasta-Trinity National Forest where timber and brush have burned 100,414 acres and is 84% contained.
  
• The Uncles Complex fire (Three Fires) in Klamath National Forest where old growth timber and brush have burned 30,424 acres and is 95% contained.
  
• Wildfire discussion: Warm and dry weather will continue through the weekend in California.
  

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)