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National Situation Update: Saturday, October 21, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Cold Front Moving into the Central U.S.

Midwest
A new cold front out of Canada will move across the Dakotas and into the Mississippi Valley.

Rain is forecast in the area from Michigan to Iowa and Missouri and some scattered snow showers are expected in parts of the central Plains. A Flood Advisory for portions of the East Fork White River, Wabash River, and White River in western and southern Indiana will continue until Tuesday night 10/24/2006.

Highs will range from the 40s in Wisconsin and northern Michigan to the 60s in the Ohio Valley. 

Northeast
Damaging winds with gusts exceeding 50 miles per hour are forecast for large portions of New England Friday evening and Saturday morning.

The same storm system is expected to drop rain and/or snow (depending on the temperature) in Upstate New York, parts of northern New England, western and northern Pennsylvania and the mountains of Maryland and West Virginia. A Flood Warning continues for the Mohawk River at Utica, NY until further notice.

South
Light rain is forecast for southeast Texas (Houston area), Louisiana, and Mississippi this weekend. Flood Warnings will be in effect from southeastern Texas to central Mississippi.

Dry, cold, and windy weather is expected in Oklahoma and western Texas.

High temperatures will range from the 50s across the Texas Panhandle to the 80s-90s over the Florida Peninsula.

West
Snow accumulation will taper off in the areas from Montana to Colorado as a strong cold front sweeps eastward across the central states. The remainder of the West will be dry. 

High temperatures will be 10 to 25 degree below average (30s and 40s) across Montana, Utah, Wyoming, Colorado and northern New Mexico, but as much as 5 to 10 degrees above average (60s and 70s with 80s in California's Central Valley) from the Cascades and Sierra to the coast.

Unsettled weather is expected to continue over Hawaii through most of the weekend as a low pressure trough remains in the area. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for all islands in Hawaii until Sunday morning.  (National Weather Service, Various Media Sources)

Hawaii Earthquake Recovery

• Damage assessments and PDAs are currently underway.

• No shelters are open.

• An American Red Cross Hotline  is available to request assistance statewide (877) 377-5053.

• Tesoro refinery has resumed normal operations at its 94,000 barrel-per-day facility. Chevron anticipates normal operations at its 54,000 barrel-per-day facility by the end of the week. Kawaihae Harbor has 20 days of fuel in storage for western Hawaii power facilities. One of the three piers at Kawaihae Harbor is now open for commercial maritime traffic. Repairs continue at the other two piers.  (FEMA Region IX,  Hawaii State EOC, National Infrastructure Coordination Center)
  

New York State Storm Recovery

Western New York continues to recover from last week's record snow storm. Rain changing to wet heavy snow (possibly 4-6 inches) Friday evening and Saturday morning may cause additional downed trees and power outages.

There are 55,620 customers still without electrical service. Estimated time of complete restoration is midnight Saturday, 10/21/06.

Currently 1,714 utility personnel are working to restore power.

Federal support currently totals 40 U.S. Coast Guard personnel and 11 FEMA responders. Additionally, FEMA Logistics provided two 50- pack generator kits (12 trailers) to Buffalo, NY for backup power. Approximately 217 State Active Duty Army National Guard troops and 21 Air National Guard troops are supporting the snow storm recovery operations.

Public water supplies are being monitored and water sampling is being conducted where needed.

17 school districts, closed due to ongoing debris clearance, will re-open when roads are safe for transporting students.

The Seneca Nation is currently using American Red Cross (ARC) help for families without power. ARC provided additional food resources to the Tonawanda Seneca Indian Reservation on Thursday, 10/19/2006. 

As of October 20, 6 shelters remained open serving 136 people. The ARC closed one shelter on 10/19/2006 and additional shelters on 10/20/2006. The ARC anticipates that the sheltering operation will be concluded by Sunday, 10/22/2006.

Mobile feeding site is operational in Amherst and two fixed site Emergency Response Vehicle (ERV) units opened with the evening meal on 10/19. Snacks are being distributed. Drop site feeding began at lunch for chainsaw crews. Three meals a day are being served as of 10/20/2006.(FEMA Region II, New York State EOC)

FEMA’s Florida Long Term Recovery Office Temporarily Relocated

Approximately 450 workers at the Florida Long Term Recovery Office (LTRO) in Orlando, Florida are temporarily relocating to new offices as a result of unsafe conditions at their current facility. The Orlando facility has experienced water leaks that have resulted in mold and mildew accumulation. Callers to the Orlando LTRO facility (407) 858-2000 will be referred to the number at a Port Charlotte facility (941) 764-5700. The LTRO office hours are 8:00 am - 5:00 pm EDT (Monday-Friday).  (news media, Federal Operations Center)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:
Tropical storm formation is not expected through Sunday.

Central and Eastern Pacific:
Tropical storm formation is not expected through Sunday.

Western Pacific:
No significant activity to report. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

During the past 24 hours several light magnitude earthquakes have been reported in Alaska, California, and Hawaii. There were no reports of damage or injuries.

A 6.5 magnitude earthquake struck near the coast of central Peru on October 20 at 6:48 am EDT. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center released a bulletin shortly afterwards that indicated no tsunami was expected.  (USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

Alaska - Individual and Public Assistance PDAs for three areas were initiated October 16, and are ongoing.  (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 1 on a scale of 1 (low) - 5 (high)
National Fire Activity
Wildfire activity:  Light (12 new fires)

New large fires:  0

Large fires contained:  0

Uncontained large fires:  2 large fires in California.  The Bar Complex fire in Shasta-Trinity National Forest where timber and brush are burning is 84% contained. The Uncles Complex fire in Klamath National Forest where old growth timber and brush are burning is 95% contained.

Wildfire discussion:  Light winds accompanied by warm temperatures and low humidity will continue in Southern California through Sunday.

Disaster Declaration Activity

The Governor of New York requested a major disaster declaration as a result of damages caused by a severe lake-effect storm that began on October 12, 2006 and is continuing. The governor requested Individual and Public Assistance for the counties of Erie, Niagara, Genesee, and Orleans and Hazard Mitigation statewide.

Correction: Amendment to Notices of Emergency Declarations for Katrina evacuations. The incident period for 44 states and the District of Columbia closed effective October 1, 2005. Previously reported as 2006.  (FEMA HQ )