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National Situation Update: Sunday, October 15, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Summary

Northeast:

No significant weather is forecast to impact the clean-up from the October 12-13 destructive early-season snowstorm in the Buffalo, N.Y. metro area.  An additional couple of inches of snow may fall in localized areas of southwest N.Y., well south of Buffalo. A developing persistent heavy band of snow could generate 5 to 10 inches in the Tug Hill Plateau between Watertown and Syracuse through October 15.

Tree and power line damage could become a big problem for yet another part of Upstate New York. Winds will noticeably diminish Sunday.  Cold weather should continue to dominate the Northeast today. Frost advisories and freeze warnings have been issued in parts of West Virginia, Virginia and Maryland. Highs will generally be up to 10 degrees below average for mid-October.

West:

An area of low pressure will produce areas of steady rainfall over the rocky, sandy, mountainous terrain of the Mohave Desert and Four Corners.  Flooding was reported Saturday afternoon in Arches National Park, near Moab, Utah, only about a week after flooding trapped 24 people and deposited up to 2 feet of sand on a road leading to the famous Delicate Arch. All roads leading to the Willow Beach, Arizona marina were washed out early Saturday.

Flood watches continue for the canyon lands of southeast Utah and extreme southwest Colorado. Local rainfall totals exceeding an inch are possible through the early morning, before the core of the upper-level storm moves into the Four Corners region this afternoon. This should position most of today's heavy rainfall into the Southern Plains.  A low pressure system and a cold front will impact the Pacific Northwest.  The rain and high mountain snow should spread into the Bitterroots of Montana and Idaho's "chimney" and spread southward into the Siskiyous of southern Oregon and far northern California.

South:

There is a potential for excessive, flooding rain, particularly from extreme southern Kansas into western Oklahoma and West Texas.  Another area of soaking rain is expected to move northward along the Texas Coastal Bend.  A few strong thunderstorms, some possibly tornadic, are also possible from the Upper Texas coast southward toward Corpus Christi.  Frost advisories and a few freeze warnings have been posted for this morning over much of the Carolinas and parts of eastern Georgia.

Midwest:

Early Sunday will still be cold with frost advisories and freeze warning in effect for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, Indiana, southern Michigan, much of Ohio and parts of Kentucky.

Buffalo Snowstorm Update

A flood watch remains in effect for a portion of Western New York through this morning including the following counties; Genesee, Niagara, northern Erie and Orleans. Above freezing temperatures will continue to allow the snowpack to melt. Some flooding problems are still possible tonight. The potential for flooding will be greatest in urban areas and across low lying areas that are more susceptible to flooding. Most of the region still has no power rendering sump pumps useless, making basement flooding a real concern.

As of 8:30 pm October 14, approximately 325,500 homes and businesses still did not have electricity.  National Grid reports 229,000 customers without electric service, down from the peak of more than 260,000 on Friday.  New York State Electric & Gas Corporation (NYSEG) reports 96,500 customers without electric service, down from the peak of approximately 132,000 on Friday.

NYSEG reports that power will not be restored to all of its customers until at least Tuesday due to severe damage to its facilities.  National Grid expects final, complete restoration of electric power to all of its customers to carry into next weekend. 

One 50-pack generator package has been re-directed to Cheektowaga, NY for mission assignments. 

Media sources report health officials as saying hospitals have seen dozens of cases of people sickened by carbon monoxide produced by improperly vented stoves and generators.

Governor George Pataki requested a Federal Emergency Declaration on October 13, 2006 for Erie, Niagara, Genesee, and Orleans Counties in Western New York State.  (NWS/NOAA, Governor Pataki's Federal Emergency Declaration request, NYSEG, National Grid, FEMA Region II, AP)

Tiny Dust Specks Could Have Big Effect on Hurricanes

Never underestimate the power of something small. Researchers are finding that Saharan dust storms containing tiny specks of dust are linked to suppressed hurricane activity in the Atlantic.  Researchers found that during times of intense hurricane activity, the large clouds of dust that periodically blow westward from the Saharan Desert are relatively scarce. In years when there were fewer hurricanes, the dust storms were stronger and tended to spread over much of the Atlantic and Caribbean Sea.

The research represents the first long-term analysis of the relationship between Saharan dust storms and hurricanes and supports previous hypotheses that these dust storms tend to suppress hurricane formation.
(NOAA) http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2719.htm

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:

• Tropical storm formation is not expected through Monday.

Central and Eastern Pacific:

• No threats to U.S. territories or possessions.

Western Pacific:

• No threats to U.S. territories or possessions. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

PDAs for Individual Assistance and Public Assistance in five Virginia counties are scheduled to begin on Monday, October 16, 2006. (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 2

• National Fire Activity
  • Initial attack activity: Light (57 new fires)
  • New large fires: 0
  • Large fires contained: 0
  • Uncontained large fires: 2
  • Area Command Teams: 0
  • Type 1 IMTs committed: 0
  • Type 2 IMTs committed: 0

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)