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National Situation Update: Tuesday, October 10, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Commercial Aviation ORANGE

National Weather Summary

West:  Scattered showers and mountain snows are forecast in a narrow band from central California eastward through Colorado. A trough of low pressure will produce precipitation along the California coast from San Francisco to Santa Barbara. In southwest Oregon and northwest California, gusty offshore winds and low humidity will contribute to critical wildfire conditions. High temperatures are forecast to range from the 40s in the Rockies to the 90s in the lower Colorado River Valley.

Midwest:  A vigorous upper-level disturbance will produce heavy precipitation in Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri and Iowa. Scattered showers may reach the Ohio Valley. A cold polar air mass will move into the northern Plains and northern Minnesota with gusty northerly winds later today. High temperatures are forecast to range from the 50s over the Plains, Upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes to the 70s in the Ohio Valley and southeast Missouri. Much colder weather is forecast tomorrow as the powerful storm over the Great Lakes moves the polar air southward and eastward.

South:  A stationary front and trough of low pressure will produce widespread precipitation and even severe thunderstorms over northeast Texas, southeast Oklahoma, and Arkansas and Louisiana. With the remainder of the region under high pressure the remainder of the Southeast should remain dry except for showers on North Carolina's Outer Banks and in extreme south Florida. High temperatures will range from the 50s in the Texas Panhandle and northwest Oklahoma to the 90s in the lower Rio Grande Valley and 80s across the Deep South.

Northeast: Under high pressure most of the region will be dry with only a few showers in central Pennsylvania. The stalled frontal boundary along the Mason-Dixon Line will separate cool air (highs from the 40s in extreme northern New England to 60s in Pennsylvania) and warm air to the south (Highs to the 80s).(NWS, Media Sources)

Virginia Governor Declares Emergency Due to Severe Weather and Flooding

On Monday October 9, Virginia Governor Timothy M. Kaine declared an emergency in Virginia, directing state agencies to take all necessary actions to aid individuals and localities in the recovery from severe thunderstorms and isolated flooding that began October 6.

The state aid to local governments has included providing hazardous materials personnel and equipment from the Virginia Department of Emergency Management (VDEM) to the City of Franklin to help contain a gasoline spill. Flood damage has caused leaks from tanks that hold 11,000 gallons of gasoline at a petroleum depot, and the leaked gasoline has mixed with flood waters from the Blackwater River. Special foam is being sprayed on the gasoline to prevent ignition, and booms are being erected on the surface of the flood water to contain the gasoline until it can be removed.

VDEM will work with local governments across the State to assess damage in areas affected by the severe weather. In many cases, damage estimates will not be possible for a period of days until flood waters have receded.

As of Monday afternoon, the Virginia Department of Transportation reported that 119 roads were closed statewide due to flooding. Additional road closures and localized flooding are possible as river and stream levels continue to rise from flood waters moving downstream. (Source: Virginia Department of Emergency Management)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:
Tropical storm formation is not expected through Wednesday.

Central and Eastern Pacific:
Tropical depression sixteen-E is located about 1,340 miles west-southwest of southern tip of Baja California.  Conditions are favorable for intensification over the next day.

Tropical Storm Norman is centered about 660 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, moving north-northwest at 4 mph.  Maximum sustained winds are 46 mph with higher gust.
There are no threats to US territories or interests.

Western Pacific:
Tropical Storm (TS) 21W (Soulik) located approximately 610 miles northeast of Guam has been tracking west-northwestward at 15 mph.

There are no threats to US territories or interests. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

On Monday, October 9, at 4:26 pm EDT a light (magnitude 4.0) earthquake occurred 70 miles east-northeast of San Diego, California. There were no reports of damage or injuries  (USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 2
National Fire Activity

Initial attack activity: Light (46 new fires)
New large fires:  0
Large fires contained:   0
Uncontained large fires:  3
Area Command Teams:   -
Type 1 IMTs committed:  1
Type 2 IMTs committed:   1
Fire Use Teams: 0

Predictive Service Discussion: 
Gusty northeast winds are expected over northern California through Wednesday, with the highest fire potential today.

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)