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National Situation Update: Monday, October 9, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Summary

West: Scattered showers, thunderstorms and mountain snow will blanket the Interior West from southern Montana southward into Arizona and New Mexico. In lower elevations rain is forecast for plains of southeast Wyoming and eastern Colorado. High temperatures will range from the 30s in Montana, Wyoming, and the mountains of north-central Colorado to the 80s in the Central Valley of California and the 90s in the lower Colorado River Valley.

Midwest: A frontal system which extends from the Great lakes to New Mexico will produce gusty winds and scattered showers in Nebraska and Kansas with isolated showers in Iowa. The remainder of the Plains and Midwest to the rear of this front will be dry. As a cold dome of high pressure builds into the north-central states, western and central North Dakota could see frost this morning. High temperatures will range from the 40s in western Nebraska and northwest Kansas to the 70s across the lower Midwest.

South: The Eastern Carolinas will have scattered showers and thunderstorms from an upper-level disturbance. Elsewhere in the Southeast only isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast. Behind the cold front in western Texas and Oklahoma expect scattered showers and thunderstorms. Behind the cold front in the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles highs will be in the 50s, Elsewhere, highs will be in the 70s and 80s.

Northeast: A dry cold front will move into the Northeast but will produce little weather. Generally sunny skies and temperatures above seasonal means will prevail. Highs are forecast to be in the 60s and 70s, north to south. (NWS, Media Sources)

Flash Flooding in Virginia - Update

Flash flooding due to heavy rains occurred Friday and Saturday October 6 and 7 in several localities in southeast and central Virginia, resulting in localized impacts including road closures and some limited evacuations. Five counties declared local emergencies.

The Virginia Department of Emergency Management is monitoring the situation, responding to local requests for assistance, and coordinating with other State agencies. No shortfalls reported, no request at this time for Federal assistance. (Source: Virginia Department of Emergency Management)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea: The National Hurricane center is monitoring a number of tropical waves. Tropical storm formation is not expected through Tuesday.

Central and Eastern Pacific: The National Hurricane Center has initiated advisories on tropical depression Fifteen-E centered about 745 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, Mexico. The system is forecast to increase only slightly in strength before tracking over Mexico in 120 hours. Based on this first warning Fifteen –E is no threat to the United States at this time.

The nearly stationary area of low pressure centered about 1350 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Mexico has changed little during the past several hours. Environmental conditions are only marginally favorable for development but this system could become a tropical depression later today.

Western Pacific: Tropical depression (TD) 21W, located approximately 885 miles east of Guam has tracked northwestward at 17 mph over the past six hours. There are no threats to US territories or interests. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 2

National Fire Activity

Initial attack activity: Light (26 new fires)
New large fires: 1
Large fires contained: 0
Uncontained large fires: 4
Area Command Teams: -
Type 1 IMTs committed: 1
Type 2 IMTs committed: 1
Fire Use Teams: 0

2005 (1/1/05 - 9/29/05): Fires: 53,175; Acres: 8,160,688
2006 (1/1/06 - 10/06/06): Fires: 84,551; Acres: 9,114,636

Predictive Service Discussion: High pressure building over California will bring gusty winds and lower humidity to the region over the next couple of days. However, fire potential will remain below critical levels. Day weather will persist over Florida and much of the southeast today.

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)