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National Situation Update: Sunday, October 8, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Summary

West: Most of the West will be under the influence of high pressure. A warm front associated with a low pressure system in the Pacific will produce rain over western Washington. High temperatures will be 40s and 50s some 5 to 20 degrees below average.

Midwest: A cold front will move across the Plains and Midwest today, stalling over southern Kentucky, southern Missouri and the southern Plains early next week. Adding to the chill, showery rain and a few thunderstorms, some with heavy downpours, will expand eastward across Nebraska, Kansas and Missouri as disturbances advance out of the West. High temperatures across the Great Lakes and the Plains will cool to the 50s, but remain in the 70s in the Ohio Valley.

South: The Carolinas will have lingering clouds and showers as the frontal system moves off ashore.
Some gusty winds are forecast for the Outer Banks today but nothing like what occurred over the Mid-Atlantic Friday. Also heavy thunderstorms could move over the lower Rio Grande from out of the southwest Gulf.

Northeast: High pressure will dominate the Northeast today with mostly clear skies. In upstate New York and interior New England, a third morning of frost and locally freezing low temperatures are possible. (NWS, Media Sources)

Flash Flooding Virginia

Rainfall of 8 to 12 inches from a low pressure system impacted Southeast Virginia on Friday, October 6 and has continued throughout Saturday. Flash flooding is reported in several localities in Southeast Virginia resulting in road closures and evacuations.

No FEMA assistance has been requested, and potential request for federal resources is unknown at this time. FEMA Region III is monitoring the situation.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea: Tropical storm formation is not expected through Sunday.

Central and Eastern Pacific: Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the low pressure area located about 1375 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California remains well-organized. Although upper-level winds are only marginally favorable for development, this system could become a tropical depression today as it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

Another low pressure area is located about 950 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California moving to the west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with this system is currently limited. However, upper-level conditions appear favorable for a further development and a tropical depression could form from this system during the next couple of days.
Elsewhere, tropical storm formation is not expected through Sunday.

Western Pacific:
There are no threats to US territories or interests. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

On Saturday, October 7, 2006 at 10:48 pm EDT a light (4.5 magnitude) earthquake was reported 64 miles south-southeast of Seattle, Washington. No report of damages or injuries. (USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 2

National Fire Activity

Initial attack activity: Light (72 new fires)
New large fires: 0
Large fires contained: 0
Uncontained large fires: 3
Area Command Teams: -
Type 1 IMTs committed: 1
Type 2 IMTs committed: 1
Fire Use Teams: 0
2005 (1/1/05 - 9/29/05): Fires: 53,175; Acres: 8,160,688
2006 (1/1/06 - 10/06/06): Fires: 84,551; Acres: 9,109,067

Predictive Service Discussion: Warmer, drier weather is on tap for California this weekend. The storm system that has been along the West Coast is beginning to weaken while high pressure is starting to build over the Pacific Northwest. This will bring warmer and drier weather to California on the weekend along with gusty northeast winds over northern California. Mostly dry weather will persist across much of Florida and the southeastern states.

Bar Fire Complex in Trinity County, California is 51% contained. The fire has consumed 99,148 acres. This complex consists of three fires which are located 14 miles northwest of Weaverville. Three hundred and ninety-one residential structures are threatened and road closures are in place. Five hundred personnel are currently assigned to the fire. ( Region IX, National Interagency Fire Center, National Interagency Coordination Center, Media Sources)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)