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National Situation Update: Wednesday, October 4, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Summary

West:  Low pressure off the Pacific Ocean will bring rain and mountain snow to much of northern and central California. Winter storm watches have been posted in the Sierra-Nevada Mountains. Temperatures will be much cooler-than-average.

Midwest:  Stronger thunderstorms could contain damaging wind gusts and hail.  Tornado threat should lesson this morning.

South:  The warmest readings will occur over central and eastern Texas. Showers are possible across eastern Florida and along the western Gulf Coast with the remainder of the region expected to be dry.

Northeast:  The eastern extent of the Midwest cold front will drop into the Northeast.  A band of possibly severe thunderstorms forecasted along the cold front. Damaging wind gusts and large hail are the primary threats from the thunderstorms as they pass through. Temperatures should climb ahead of the warm front in southeastern Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, southern New Jersey and Virginia.   (NWS, Media Sources)

Summary of the Kilauea Eruption, 1983-Present

The eruption of Kilauea, now in its twenty-third year and 55th eruptive episode, ranks as the most voluminous outpouring of lava on the volcano's east rift zone in the past five centuries. By January 2005, 2.7 km3 of lava had covered 117 km2 and added 230 hectares to Kilauea's southern shore. In the process, lava flows destroyed 189 structures and resurfaced 14 km of highway with as much as 35 m of lava. 

Beginning in 1983, a series of short-lived lava fountains built the massive cinder-and-spatter cone of Kilauea. In 1986, the eruption migrated 3 km down the east rift zone to build a broad shield, Kupaianaha, which fed lava to the coast for the next 5.5 years.  (USGS)

Bar Fire Complex

Bar Fire Complex in Trinity County, California reported 43% contained. The fire has consumed 97,320 acres, with 391 residences threatened. Priority structure protection continues for the communities of Junction City, Canyon reek, Powerhouse, Hobo Gulch, Big Flat and Big Bar, Cecilville, Peterburg, Summerville, and Schoolhouse Flats areas. The estimated containment date is October 15, 2006. A California Inter-Agency Type I IMT is on site. Currently, 834 personnel are assigned to the fire.  (Region IX)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

Nothing new to report.  (FEMA HQ)

Forest Service Spends Record $1.5 Billion Fighting Wildfires

Wildfires across the country have burned a record number of acres this year and with the scorched land comes a record bill.  The U.S. Forest Service's firefighting efforts for fiscal year 2006, which ended Sept. 30, cost more than $1.5 billion, at least $100 million over budget.

The wildfire season is not over yet, but so far more than 15,515 square miles, or 9.93 million acres, have burned in the Lower 48 states.  That is the most since at least 1960, when the Boise-based National Interagency Fire Center began keeping reliable records.

The previous record was in 2005, when more than 8.6 million acres burned. The average of the past 10 years has been 4.9 million acres.  The 2006 tab compares with $690 million spent in 2005 and $726 million in 2004.    

This fire season was exacerbated by seven large-scale dry lightning storms, more than double the normal number.  Such storms can ignite several thousand small fires, forcing crews to scramble to make sure all are extinguished.  

So far this year, 674 homes, primary residences, not vacation houses, have burned in wildfires.  That's a drop from 2002, when roughly 2,000 homes burned, and 2003, when about 3,000 burned.  That indicates property owners and federal and state entities are making progress in reducing fuels around homes and developing wildland protection plans.  (Media Sources)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:
Tropical storm formation is not expected through today.

Central and Eastern Pacific:
Tropical storm formation is not expected through today.

Western Pacific:
There are no threats to US territories or interests.    (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No activity to report.  (USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity to report. 

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 2
National Fire Activity

• Initial attack activity: Light (74 new fires)
• New large fires: 2
• Large fires contained: 2
• Uncontained large fires: 7
• Area Command Teams: 1
• Type 1 IMTs committed: 5
• Type 2 IMTs committed: 2
• Fire Use Teams: 0

2005 (1/1/05 - 10/02/05):  Fires: 53,539; Acres: 8,170,904
2006 (1/1/06 - 10/02/06):  Fires: 84,087; Acres: 9,101,375

Predictive Service Discussion:  California is predicted to receive rain and snow in the mountains as a low pressure system moves slowly across the state. The southeastern states will experience dry weather throughout the week.  (National Interagency Fire Center, National Interagency Coordination Center Media Sources)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No activity to report.  (FEMA HQ)