National Situation Update: Tuesday, October 3, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Summary

West: The West will stay dry despite isolated showers and storms that are expected to speckle portions of the region. The greatest probability will exist in parts of the Northwest, northern California, the eastern reaches of Montana, Wyoming and Colorado and the Rocky Mountains.

Midwest: Scattered showers and storms in parts of lower Michigan, Ohio and Indiana. Isolated severe storms may erupt from southeastern Minnesota and northeastern Iowa eastward into lower Michigan and northern Indiana.

South: Isolated showers and storms forecasted for Florida and the eastern Gulf Coast.

Northeast: Isolated to locally scattered showers and storms in the Northeast, mainly north of the Mason-Dixon Line. (NWS, Media Sources)

Incident Report – Guam Earthquake

The US Geological Survey stated that a moderate (5.2 magnitude) earthquake occurred on Monday morning, October 2, 2006 at 11:09 am EDT. The epicenter was located 70 miles SW of Hagatna, Guam, and at a depth of 6.2 miles.

There is no Federal or FEMA involvement anticipated at this time and the extent of State/Local response is unknown. FEMA Region IX will continue to monitor the situation. (FEMA Region IX, USGS)

Predictive Service Discussion:

Cool and showery weather is on tap for California this week. A low pressure system will dominate the weather across the West this week with cool, unsettled weather for most of the region. High pressure will keep the South generally warm and dry this week. (National Interagency Fire Center, National Interagency Coordination Center Media Sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

Nothing new to report. (FEMA HQ)

Giant California Forest Fire Nearly Contained As Weather Improves

A wildfire that has scorched more than 250 square miles of brush and timber in two national forests and cost more than $70 million to fight was nearly contained Monday, almost a month after it began.

The 162,702-acre Day Fire was 95 percent contained, and firefighters were confident they would have the blaze completely surrounded by 9:00 p.m. EDT Monday, October 2, 2006.

Large numbers of firefighters were being sent home from the blaze, which was ignited on Labor Day by someone burning debris.

Dry and sometimes windy conditions that helped spread the fire in recent weeks gave way October 1, 2006 to unexpectedly wet weather that brought scattered showers over the fire area in Ventura County northwest of Los Angeles. Rainfall ranged from 0.02 inch to 0.12 inch, a fire information statement said.

The blaze, the fifth-largest in state history, demanded most of the region's resources and came as firefighters prepared for the height of the Southern California wildfire season.

One home was destroyed and another damaged. The blaze also burned a handful of structures including barns, sheds, an unoccupied cabin and a camping trailer. There were only a handful of minor injuries, the most serious coming Sunday when a helicopter crashed while picking up fire retardant and water. Two pilots escaped with bruises and bumps.

While fire officials were pleased that the fire didn't do more damage, there were several moments over the past month that caused concern. Firefighters initially prevented the blaze from heading east toward Interstate 5, a major artery between Southern and Northern California.

Santa Ana winds fanned flames and doubled the size of the fire the weekend of Sept. 16. The strong gusts persisted and at one point reached 60 mph - similar to winds that were seen during the 2003 wildfires that blackened 750,000 acres and destroyed more than 3,600 homes.

Several times the blaze raced past fire lines and threatened the communities of Ojai, Santa Paula, Fillmore and Lockwood Valley. But firefighters were aided by a huge aerial attack, including a modified DC-10 jetliner that dumped thousands of gallons of fire retardant.

Fire officials said they would be looking for flare-ups over the next several weeks and will keep water-dropping helicopters in the area as a precaution. Barren hillsides also could create possible flooding during winter storms.

In Los Angeles, meanwhile, fire officials gearing up for the fall fire season showed off firefighting aircraft at Van Nuys Airport, including two newly arrived Canadian SuperScoopers that can scoop up water from lakes or the ocean without stopping. The fall typically brings Santa Ana winds to Southern California, raising fire danger. (Media Sources)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:
Tropical storm formation is not expected through today.

Central and Eastern Pacific:
Tropical storm formation is not expected through today.

Western Pacific:
There are no threats to US territories or interests. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

At 8:08 pm EDT on October 2, 2006, a minor (4.2 magnitude) earthquake occurred 4 miles south-southeast of Bar Harbor, Maine. The magnitude is such that a tsunami was not generated.

At 11:09 am EDT on October 2, 2006, a moderate (5.2 magnitude) earthquake occurred 70 miles southwest of Hagatna, Guam. The magnitude is such that a tsunami was not generated. (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity to report. (FEMA Region VII)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 3
National Fire Activity

Initial attack activity: Light (50 new fires)
New large fires: 0
Large fires contained: 1
Uncontained large fires: 8
Area Command Teams: 1
Type 1 IMTs committed: 4
Type 2 IMTs committed: 2
Fire Use Teams: 0

2005 (1/1/05 - 9/29/05): Fires: 53,175; Acres: 8,160,688
2006 (1/1/06 - 9/29/06): Fires: 83,752; Acres: 9,074,358

Disaster Declaration Activity

No activity to report. (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Tuesday, 03-Oct-2006 09:10:24 EDT