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National Situation Update: Monday, May 29, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather

Midwest:  Temperatures will be above late-May averages just about everywhere in the Plains and Midwest... well above around the Great Lakes. While isolated showers and thunderstorms may wander across the Dakotas, precipitation will be more concentrated from the far eastern portions of Nebraska and Kansas into the Midwest. A few parts of the Midwest, however, may escape the day without any shower activity at all. The best chance for that is in the northern Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley. Severe storms could be part of the mix, especially late in the day, and especially from the Upper Midwest southwestward into northwest Missouri and eastern Kansas.

Northeast:  A weak cold front pushing southward into extreme northern New England and an upper-air disturbance sliding southeastward will trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms over New England, eastern New York state, eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey.

South:  Hot weather will prevail in the South today with high temperatures in the 80s and 90s widespread. Readings may top 100 in parts of the Trans-Pecos region of Texas and while the Carolinas, Georgia, northern Florida, much of Oklahoma and the western two-thirds of Texas should stay dry, scattered showers and thunderstorms will billow up elsewhere, mainly during the afternoon and evening. Isolated evening storms could pop up along a dry line in western Oklahoma and West Texas. Gusty southerly winds, meanwhile, will whip over eastern Oklahoma and eastern Texas.

West:  While much of the West will be dry today, scattered rain and mountain snow showers will dot northern Washington, the northern Rockies, parts of the Great Basin, and a few spots on the Plains of Montana and Wyoming. Sunshine will bathe most of California, Nevada and the Four Corners states. Overall, highs will range from the 40s in parts of the northern Rockies to the 90s in the low deserts of the Southwest.   (NWS, Media Sources)

Experts: Garden State Not Immune From Hurricanes

Yes, it could happen here. That's the message from many weather experts when it comes to hurricanes in New Jersey.  As the areas ravaged by Hurricane Katrina last year prepare for yet another hurricane season to begin June 1, experts warn that just because New Jersey hasn't seen a major storm in years, residents still need to be prepared especially in light of the fact that more and more people are living near coastal areas.

The National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration this year is predicting what it describes as a 'very active' hurricane season in the North Atlantic, meaning eight to 10 hurricanes including four to six that are Category 3 or higher. Last year, there were 15 hurricanes, seven of which were above Category 3 - considered ``major'' - and four of those actually hit the U.S.

Usually, hurricanes, which need warm water to keep moving, lose steam around Cape Hatteras, N.C. because the water cools, said Mike Wyllie, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service's Upton, N.Y. office. Also, if they get this far north, winds tend to push them east, which is good news for New Jersey although not so good for Long Island, said Wyllie.

That's not to say the Garden State is immune. An unnamed storm - the only confirmed hurricane to make landfall in New Jersey - hit Cape May in 1821 and continued up what is now the Garden State Parkway, said state climatologist David Robinson of Rutgers University.  The storm - most likely a Category 3 hurricane - proves that while hurricanes in New Jersey are rare, they can happen, said Robinson. And, he added, ``We don't need a landfalling storm in New Jersey to wreak havoc.''

The big difference between 1821 and now? The population along the coast has exploded, meaning if a storm hits it could cause that much more damage.  A mapping scenario by the National Hurricane Center gives an idea of what would happen if, for example, a Category 3 hurricane, moving northwest at 40 mph hit Atlantic City at high tide, said Wyllie. Sixteen to 17 feet of water could surge over the boardwalk and in some of the back bays the waters could be even higher.

Over the years, officials along the coast have implemented a number of different building requirements and structural changes to deal with hurricanes and storms, said Undersheriff Wayne Rupert of the Ocean County Office of Emergency Management.  Many municipalities have installed valves to keep water from surging up through their drainage systems during a storm. In many areas, houses have to be built above the flood plane, and they're built in a such a way to withstand high winds.

But if a storm does head this way, the big challenge may be getting people out of harm's way. For example, Long Beach Island - which is only six feet above sea level - only has one bridge off the island. Rupert said officials rely on the National Hurricane Center to tell them where storms are moving, and then a decision is made about whether to begin evacuations.

Experts advise people living along the coast to be prepared during hurricane season, pay attention to the news so they won't be taken by surprise when a storm comes and make plans ahead of time for where they'll go and how they'll get there.   (Media Sources)

Buoys Will Help Monitor Hurricanes

High-tech buoys along South Carolina's coast will help emergency workers monitor offshore wind speeds so they can know sooner where the most help is needed following a hurricane.  The Carolinas Coastal Ocean Observing and Prediction System has been in place off the coast since 2003, but it hasn't been tested in major hurricane winds.

The buoys can relay real-time wind speed, barometric pressure and wave height readings feed into computers that come up with storm surge predictions down to the city block.
In the past, emergency workers followed hurricanes into areas where there were reports of damage, sometimes missing the hardest-hit areas where people couldn't get the word out that help was needed.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has about 140 observing stations in coastal waters, compared with nearly 14,000 on land.  But the government is looking at improving the offshore monitoring by paying for programs like the Carolinas Coastal Ocean Observing and Prediction System. Local offices of the National Weather Service - a division of NOAA - say the help is needed.

For example, the Charleston weather service office relied on information from one buoy about 40 miles off Edisto Beach and the occasional report from a pleasure craft elsewhere along the coast.  The new system added five buoys and three pier-based weather stations. 

The new prediction system team is made up of scientists from the University of South Carolina, North Carolina State and the University of North Carolina Wilmington.  The group has put together an experimental storm surge program it hopes can guide evacuation planning by mapping out flooding based on where a storm makes landfall.

In Charleston, for example, the program has 576 different flooding scenarios. The worst case would be a major hurricane making landfall in the Edisto/Kiawah area. In that case, everything on the Charleston peninsula east of Interstate 26 would be under water as would many places near tidal creeks and rivers several miles inland.  While the buoys haven't been tested in a major storm, they have held up well during the past two hurricane seasons when storms threatened the coast.

Still, the saltwater, wind and sun can damage the sensitive equipment. The university partners make maintenance trips three times each year. Those trips cost almost $10,000 a day, but are worth the effort, said Madilyn Fletcher, coordinator of the project and director of the Baruch Institute for Marine and Coastal Sciences at USC.   (Media Sources)

Firefighters Holding Adobe Fire Lines

Containment lines held Sunday on a 25,460-acre fire that charred grass and brush in southwestern New Mexico.  The Adobe Fire was 60 percent contained, a state Forestry Division spokesman Dan Ware said.
The lightning-caused blaze burning south and east of Animas and on Animas Mountain initially was estimated at 22,000 acres. More accurate mapping, taken after burnout operations Friday, led to the higher acreage, Ware said.  Some 91 people were assigned to the blaze, helped by 16 engines, two water tenders and a helicopter.  The blaze, reported a week ago, was approaching untested containment lines on the north and west side of the mountain, Ware said.

Meanwhile, the Eul Fire burned pinion, juniper, grass and brush on private land northeast of Navajo Lake. The blaze was fully contained late Sunday, and Ware said crews patrolled the area looking for hot spots.  Visitors to the lake could see smoke from the 40-acre fire, but it was burning toward federally owned land.  Investigators did not immediately know what sparked the blaze.

A third fire sparked Sunday northwest of Las Vegas, N.M., burning five acres of pinon, juniper, poderosa pine and grass. Investigators were trying to determine the cause of the Canoncito Fire, while a hot shot crew dug fire lines.  No structures were threatened in any of the fires.  (Media Sources)

Officials Say Now Is The Time To Prepare For Fire Season

Officials are telling Central Oregon residents that now is the time to get ready for fire season by taking steps to protect their homes.  Officials are predicting a ``routine'' fire season this year, said Bill Selby, smokejumper unit manager at the Redmond Air Center.

Diann Coonfield, of the National Weather Service in Pendleton, said a mild, wet winter and spring are predictors that the season won't be particularly severe.  Things are still relatively green in Central Oregon, decreasing the likelihood of fire, but lower elevations in Deschutes County are drying out quickly, Coonfield said.  That translates into drier dead fuels, like downed trees and logs, said George Ponte, a protection unit forester for the Oregon Department of Forestry. Precipitation has been sporadic in Central Oregon, Ponte said, so larger dead fuels haven't had a chance to absorb the moisture.  As the fire season nears, the main message from fire prevention experts to homeowners is remove dead fuels from around their homes.

People ``should look at their homes and say, 'Am I prepared for the wildfire season?' and 'Is my home prepared for a wildfire?''' said Bend Fire Chief Gary Marshall.  Marshall suggested removing pine needles and cones from roofs and gutters, trimming the lower branches of trees close to homes and keeping grass and weeds trimmed to 4 inches or below. Residents should also move woodpiles to at least 30 feet away from the home.

Once wildfire season hits, Marshall said, embers from active fires can travel into town and settle into woodpiles or brush that hasn't been removed.  Marshall also recommended putting in fire resistant plants near homes, rather than juniper brush or pine trees that can quickly go up in flames.
Christy Donham, spokeswoman for the Oregon Department of Forestry, said the biggest cause of wildfires on state-protected lands in the early season is escaped debris from open burning on private property.  She said Central Oregonians need to call their local fire departments to confirm open burning is allowed, and whether or not permits are necessary.   (Media Sources)

Tropical Storm Aletta Advisory Number 9

At 5:00 a.m. EDT, May 29, 2006, the center of Tropical Storm Aletta was located near latitude 16.2 north...longitude 101.0 west or about 85 miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.

Aletta is moving north near 2 mph and a gradual turn toward the northwest is expected during the next 24 hours. 

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph with higher gusts. no significant change in stregnth is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 29.59 inches. Aletta is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with locally higher amounts in regions of mountainous terrain.  These rains could cause life  threatening flash floods and mud slides.  (NWS National Hurricane Center)

Tropical Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

(This information is reported as of 10:00 a.m. EDT.)  Initial attack activity was light nationally with 39 new fires reported. Two new large fires were reported, one each in the Southern Area, and the Southern California Area. Two large fires were contained, one each in the Southern and Eastern Great Basin Areas. Very high to extreme fire indices were reported in Arizona, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, Colorado, Minnesota,  Southern California, and Utah.

Red Flag Warnings: In effect from 9am to 9pm for most of southern Nevada for gusty winds and low relative humidity (RH). For southern and eastern Colorado for winds and dry RH. For eastern third Arizona, northern and central New Mexico and portions of southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas for strong southwest winds and low humidity.

Fire Weather Watches: Southern New Mexico and portions of west Texas for strong southwest winds and low humidity.

Weather Discussion: Dry, windy weather will continue over the Southwest and  Colorado as a low pressure trough moves through the West. Most of the Great Basin will see cooler temperatures along with higher humidity. Scattered thunderstorms are  expected in Florida.   (National Interagency Fire Center, NWS, Storm Prediction Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)