National Situation Update: Tuesday, May 23, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

NOAA Predicts A Very Active 2006 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released predictions for the 2006 North Atlantic hurricane season on May 22, 2006. NOAA is predicting 13 to 16 named storms, with eight to 10 becoming hurricanes, of which four to six could become "major" hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher.

The average north Atlantic hurricane season produces 11 named storms, with six becoming hurricanes, including two major hurricanes. However, in 2005, the Atlantic hurricane season saw a record 28 storms, including 15 hurricanes. Seven of these hurricanes were considered "major," of which a record four hit the United States .

NOAA's research indicates the following factors will favor the development of tropical cyclones this season: warmer ocean water combined with lower wind shear, weaker easterly trade winds, and a more favorable wind pattern in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. Warm water is the energy source for storms while favorable wind patterns limit the wind shear that can tear apart a storm's building cloud structure.

This confluence of conditions in the ocean and atmosphere is strongly related to a climate pattern known as the multi-decadal signal, which has been in place since 1995. Since then, nine of the last 11 hurricane seasons have been above normal, with only two below-normal seasons during the El Niño years of 1997 and 2002.

With neutral El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions expected across the equatorial Pacific during the next three to six months, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center scientists say that neither El Niño nor La Niña likely will be a factor in this year's hurricane season.

NOAA and other federal agencies including the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) are encouraging citizens, businesses, and government organizations at all levels in potentially affected areas to make preparations now.

Based on information supplied by the U.S. Census Bureau, there are approximately 35 million people in hurricane-prone areas extending from North Carolina to Texas; approximately 12 percent of the U.S. population. In 1950, approximately 10 million people lived in the coastal areas (about 7 percent of the total U.S. population at that time). Florida is the most at-risk state for hurricanes with approximately 17 million people in hurricane-prone areas. There are approximately 180,000 square miles of coastal areas in the North Carolina to Texas coastal region. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, FEMA, media sources)

Federal Hurricane Preparedness Status Report

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Preparedness Directorate, released a report on May 22 that described the status of federal disaster preparations for the 2006 hurricane season. The report highlighted eleven federal priority preparedness goals for the June 1 beginning of the hurricane season as follows:

  1. Goal: Plan to place key federal, state and local officials in the same emergency response centers during disasters.
    Status: Done.

  2. Goal: Create federal field offices before disasters hit to coordinate and direct federal support.
    Status: Done. Homeland Security also designated ``principal federal officers'' to oversee the federal response during a disaster with top state officials, and ``federal coordinating officers'' to work on logistics like delivering supplies and rescuing victims.

  3. Goal: Deliver on-the-ground picture of the disaster as it unfolds to Homeland Security.
    Status: Portable radio towers, medical radios, and transceivers are being stockpiled in the southeastern U.S. Two Federal Incident Response Support Teams (FIRST) are prepared do an initial fast assessment of a disaster. Fifteen special reconnaissance teams will use high-tech systems to send video of specific disaster sites back to federal operating centers in Washington, DC.

  4. Goal: Give the military a larger role in coordinating disaster response.
    Status: Pentagon personnel have been stationed in eight of the 10 Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) regional offices, with the remaining two to come later this week.

  5. Goal: Designate locations throughout the country for receiving, staging, moving and integrating federal disaster relief personnel and assets.
    Status: Done. Supplies stockpiled in Atlanta and Fort Worth, Texas, can be tracked to Southeast distribution points within a 10-minute range. Stockpiles include 770 truckloads of ready-made meals, 1,540 truckloads of water and 2,030 truckloads of ice - enough to supply 1 million people for up to seven days; enough blue sheeting for 90,000 roofs and tarps for 80,000 households; and 129 generators for fuel suppliers, hospitals and other high-priority buildings.

  6. Goal: Compile lists of federal, state and local government personnel to assist in emergencies.
    Status: Local responders from other parts of the country are working with those in the Southeast to help if needed.

  7. Goal: Update the national Emergency Alert System to give the public warnings and instructions.
    Status: Changes are being finalized this week.

  8. Goal: Encourage states to make contracts early with service providers for relief efforts.
    Status: Homeland Security still reviewing with states to prevent overlapping contracting needs.

  9. Goal: Clear federal funding for state preparations as an imminent emergency nears.
    Status: Still working to make sure states have a clear understanding of federal responsibilities.

  10. Goal: Speed assistance to disaster victims while safeguarding against fraud.
    Status: FEMA will be able to handle 200,000 calls a day from disaster victims seeking benefits by mid-July and is aiming to inspect 20,000 damaged houses daily.

  11. Goal: Review plans for state evacuation and contingencies for uninterrupted emergency services.
    Status: Plans detailing emergency and evacuation plans for all 50 states and the 75 largest urban areas will be delivered to Congress by June 1.(U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Preparedness Directorate)

National Weather Forecast

West:  A low pressure system moving towards the Pacific Northwest will bring showers into Washington, Oregon, and northern California on Tuesday. The storm system will also create high surf conditions along the Pacific coast with waves of 15-20 feet on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Highs will range from the 50s in the higher elevations of the Sierras, Cascades, and Rockies to 100+ in the southeast New Mexico. 

Midwest:  Scattered showers are possible in the Plains area of the Dakotas, Nebraska, Minnesota, Iowa, and Missouri. Some parts of the Plains area may see tornados, as a low pressure system moves eastward.
Highs will range from the 60s in northern Ohio and Michigan to the 90s in Kansas. 

South:  Some scattered rainfall is forecast for portions of the South on Tuesday. Highs will range from the 70s in Tennessee and North Carolina to the 80s and 90s in other parts of the region. 

Northeast:  The Northeast is expected to see dry weather Tuesday, however the temperatures will be quite cold in the morning with highs in many areas in the 30s. Temperatures will rise during the day to the 60s-70s. (NWS, Media sources)

Tropical Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

PDAs for Public Assistance are scheduled to begin in New Hampshire and Massachusetts on Tuesday May 23.(FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

Initial fire activity was light nationally with 79 new fires reported. Nine new large fires were reported, seven in the Southwest Area and one each in the Southern and Western Great Basin Areas. Two large fires were contained in the Southern Area. Very high to extreme fire indices were reported in Arizona, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Colorado Texas, Kansas and Utah.  (National Interagency Fire Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Tuesday, 23-May-2006 08:16:17 EDT