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National Situation Update: Friday, May 12, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

West: High pressure will dominate the western third of the country with generally clear skies. High temperatures should easily exceed the 100-degree mark over all of the deserts with 90s extending from the lower elevations of New Mexico west to the central valley of California.

Midwest: The storm over the Great Lakes is quasi-stationary and will continue to produce an almost wintry mix over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the weekend. Some areas in northern Wisconsin and northern Michigan are cold enough to support snow or a mix of rain and snow. West of the Mississippi River skies will be mostly sunny.

South: With the exception of Tennessee most of the south should be dry today. Cool air flowing southeast out of the big storm over the Great Lakes will bring disturbances that will produce showers and thunderstorms this weekend

Northeast: The storm system over the Great Lakes will produce a steady rain over much of the Northeast today and early tomorrow. Locally heavy rainfall of one to three inches could result in localized flooding. Flash flood watches have been posted over sections of New England until tomorrow in anticipation of the heavy rainfall. Tomorrow afternoon and Sunday the rain should become more showery, however temperatures will continue to be cooler than average. (NWS, media sources)

Florida Wildfire Update

The Florida Division of Emergency Management remains at level 3 – monitoring. No changes

Division of Forestry Thursday a.m. update : 7 new fires for 40.5 acres.  The Berg and 4-Track Fires have increased in size approximately 12,000 Acres.  Increase is due to equipment inaccessibility in saw grass areas. At this time there are 84 active fires (not controlled) with 36,842.7 acres. Red Team advises I-95 is closed due to safety concern of trees falling in median.  DOT handling details and contract to get trees removed from SR 44 to 1.5 North of that location.

Significant Incidents:

• Berg: Palm Beach County, 7,000 Acres, Equipment-Recreation, Miami canal holding fire on East side, fuel – saw grass, burning under power lines, no other threat at this time.  Some burnout ongoing to protect power lines.  No change.
• 4-Track: Broward County, 10,400 acres, Equipment-Recreation.  No threat at this time.  We will continue to monitor smoke on the highway hazards; FHP and DOT have been notified.  No change.
• Powell: Hillsborough County, 450 Acres, Misc.-Power lines, 90% contained.  No change.
• Volusia Complex: New Smyrna 44/95 fire 1,569 acres and 75% contained.   Rasley Road fire 1157 acres and 75% contained.  Red Team (IC-Gary Beauchamp) No change.
• Orlando Complex: Tosohatchee Fire, Brevard County/Escaped Authorized Broadcast Burn, 600 acres, 75% contained.   Areca Fire: Brevard Co., 6,000 Acres, 80% contained.  Blue Team (IC-Wayne Jones). No change.
• Last Year Fire, Highlands County/ Debris Burn, Authorized, Broadcast Acreage, 975 acres, 90% contained, no change.
• Corbett Trail Fire: Palm Beach Co., 3,500 acres/cause-lightning, 70% contained, crews doing work on all sides of fire, no change.

The FEMA Region IV Regional Duty Officer continues monitoring and preparation of reports as necessary. The Response Liaison remains on stand-by. ( Florida Division of Emergency Management , FEMA Region IV)

National Drought Summary

The discussion in the Looking Ahead section is simply a description of what the official national guidance from the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction is depicting for current areas of dryness and drought.

Looking Ahead:  Weather features to watch in the next 5-day period (May 11 - May 15) that may affect areas of dryness or drought include:

• A building ridge in the West could mean a quieter pattern is in store for those  west of the Mississippi. On the other side, a deep trough in the Midwest and East moves the conveyer belt of moisture eastward out of the Plains and brings with it the potential for unsettled weather and good rains (the heaviest amounts expected in the Great Lakes and Northeast) across virtually all of the eastern United States, except for southern Florida, which could be left high and dry again.
  
• As you would expect with this pattern, significantly warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected in the West (west of the Rockies) and below-normal temperatures are forecasted for the eastern half (points east of the Missouri River) of the country.

The 6- to 10-day (May 16-20) outlook from the Climate Prediction Center calls for the likelihood of the following:

• This period continues to show an amplification of the ridge building in the West and migrating a bit eastward to cover the central part of the country, leading to a greater likelihood of above-normal temperatures in the West and below-normal readings in the East.
  
• Precipitation is expected to be below normal across most of the West, northern and central Plains, and into the Midwest over this same time frame. Above-normal precipitation is more likely across much of the Eastern Seaboard (including Florida) and also in the Texas Panhandle region into extreme eastern New Mexico.
  
• Ridging in northwestern Canada should lead to conditions across most of Alaska being above normal in terms of temperature, with below-normal precipitation expected across the southern half of the state, including the Alexander Archipelago. (Excerpt from http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html)

Tropical Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

The National Preparedness Level remains at Level 2

Initial attack activity was light nationally with 48 new fires reported.

Two new large fires were reported in the Southwest and Eastern Areas. One large fire was contained in the Southwest Area. Wildfire suppression is built on a three-tiered system of support - the local area, one of the 11 geographic areas (shown at right), and finally, the national level.

Very high to extreme fire indices were reported in Arizona and New Mexico. (NWS, NIFC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

The Joint Field Office (JFO) for FEMA 1634 DR Tennessee has been approved to close on or about 24 May 2006.

The Joint Field Office (JFO) for FEMA-1629-DR-Nevada has been approved to close on or about May 26, 2006.  (FEMA HQ)