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National Situation Update: Thursday, May 4, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather

South:  A cold front sliding toward the south will trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms over the southern Appalachians, Tennessee, the northern reaches of the Deep South, Arkansas, Oklahoma and northern Texas. Storms across northern Texas and extreme southern Oklahoma are expected to turn severe late in the day and the evening. During the day, locally heavy rain may strike parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas. Heavy downpours are likely in northern Texas tomorrow night.

Northeast:  Precipitation will move slowly into western portions of the Northeast at the same time a wet weather system that has plagued New England over the past couple of days drifts away into the Atlantic. This new storm, driven by a cold front from the west, will spread showers and a few thundershowers over much of New York state and Pennsylvania, West Virginia and far western Virginia.

Midwest:  A southward- and eastward-moving cold front today will spread scattered showers and thunderstorms from southeastern Michigan, Ohio and Indiana through the Ohio Valley into extreme southern Missouri and Kansas. Farther north, isolated showers may dampen parts of northeast North Dakota and northern Minnesota. Elsewhere, sunny to partly sunny skies will prevail, and even the Ohio Valley should see some partial clearing by evening as the precipitation scurries away.

West:  An upper-air low pressure system hovering over the Great Basin will spin scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Interior West from the Sierras through the Great Basin to Wyoming, Colorado and northeast New Mexico. Temperatures may be low enough in the higher elevations of Wyoming and Colorado that the showers will be in the form of snow.   (NWS, Media Sources)

FEMA Regional Activities

Type Of Incident:  Earthquake-Tonga Islands, 11:27 am EDT,  May 3, 2006.
An earthquake, with a magnitude of 7.8 on the Richter scale, occurred Wednesday, May 3, 2006, at 11:27 am EDT.  The quake occurred approximately 97 miles from Neiafu, Tonga. No, repeat No, Watch or Warning is in effect for Alaska, British Columbia, Washington, Oregon or California.  However, a Tsunami Advisory is in effect for the State of Hawaii. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center has issued a non-expanding regional tsunami warning for a part of the Pacific near the earthquake. Based on all available data, there is no destructive tsunami threat to Hawaii. Updates will be issued if necessary.  (FEMA Operations Center)

Type Of Incident:  Tsunami Watch, 1:15 pm EDT, May 3, 2006.
An earthquake with a magnitude of 7.8 occurred Wednesday, May 3, 2006 at 11:27 am EDT, approximately 95 miles south of Neiafu, Tonga.  Based on all available data, a tsunami may have been generated by this earthquake.  The Pacific Tsunami warning center at EWA Beach Hawaii has issued a Tsunami Warning for areas of the Pacific outside CA, OR, WA, British Columbia and AK.  Currently, HI is in a Tsunami Advisory status.  Estimated arrival time would be approximately 18 hours.  Ocean gauges have not picked up any raises in ocean surface.  The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center will issue bulletins hourly or sooner as conditions warrant.  The tsunami threat to American Samoa is also being evaluated.
The Hawaii State EOC has been activated.   (FEMA Region IX)

Type Of Incident:  Tsunami  Watch,  1:45 pm EDT, May 3, 2006.
The Pacific Tsunami warning center at EWA Beach Hawaii has issued a Tsunami Warning for areas of the Pacific outside CA, OR, WA, British Columbia and AK. Pago Pago reported .15 meter increase in ocean level.  All tsunami warnings cancelled in that part of the south pacific.  Energy from earthquake is predominately directed east and west in that area, Samoa is north where there would be less energy. 
American Samoa Emergency Services has activated and warnings are being distributed to alert the public.  (FEMA Region IX)

Tsunami Warning Cancelled

The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) has canceled the Tsunami Warning for all coastal areas and islands in the Pacific in their area of responsibility.  (No warnings or watches were issued by the West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center).

An earthquake now estimated at 7.8 occurred in the Tonga Islands (Latitude 19.9 South and Longitude 174.2 West) at 3:27 pm UTC (11:37 am EDT). 

Sea level readings indicate a tsunami was generated (around a foot was observed at Pago Pago and Niue).   It may have been destructive along coasts near the earthquake epicenter.  For those areas - when no major waves are observed for two hours after the estimated time of arrival or damaging waves have not occurred for at least two hours then local authorities can assume the threat is passed.  Danger to boats and coastal structures can continue for several hours due to rapid currents. As local conditions can cause a wide variation in tsunami wave action the all clear determination must be made by local authorities.         

The PTWC initially issued a Tsunami Warning based on the strength of the earthquake alone for New Zealand and Fiji.  It was later expanded to include additional Pacific islands including American Samoa.  Once information indicated that a destructive tsunami was not generated away from the source region, the warning was cancelled.  Likewise, PTWC issued a Tsunami Watch for the State of Hawaii which was updated into an Advisory before it was cancelled.  (NOAA/NWS)

NOAA's Incident Meteorologists Provide Accurate And Timely Weather Information For Emergency Events

Meteorologists with the NOAA National Weather Service have an important responsibility in meeting the NOAA National Weather Service mission of "saving lives and protecting property." A group of 60 NOAA National Weather Service volunteers take this responsibility a step further and provide valuable weather information where it is needed most - in the field during critical, life threatening situations. These Incident Meteorologists (also known as IMETs) are dispatched to remote locations in support of wildfires and other hazardous situations.  Once onsite, IMETs become key members of the incident command teams and provide continuous meteorological support for the duration of the incident.

IMETs help fire control specialists from federal, state and local agencies by interpreting weather information, assessing its impact on the fire, and helping develop strategies to best fight the fires, while keeping both fire fighters and the general public safe.  Once a fire starts, accurate up-to-date weather information for that specific fire area becomes critical. Weather, along with fuel type and topography, are the most significant factors influencing the severity and behavior of wildfires on any given day. Fire intensity and rate of spread are directly related to meteorological parameters such as temperature, humidity and wind speed. Long term drought conditions can also contribute to the number and intensity of wildfires. Wildfires can even create their own unique weather. Pyrocumulus clouds can form over the top of a fire due to its intense heat. These clouds produce little or no precipitation, but produce strong and gusty winds that can have a significant impact on fire spread and fire fighter safety.

IMETs work closely with the incident command team, especially the Fire Behavior Analyst from land management agencies such as the Bureau of Land Management or the U.S. Forest Service. IMETs assist the Fire Behavior Analyst in interpreting the weather to help predict fire behavior. The weather and resulting fire behavior have a significant impact on the team's approach to fighting the fire. IMETs also provide briefings at numerous planning meetings and answer any other weather-related questions the come up throughout the day. Coordination of fire weather conditions is conducted between the IMET, the local NOAA National Weather Service office, and any other IMETs on nearby fires to ensure the best products and services are being delivered.

The IMET also gives a weather briefing to all the fire crews. The IMET describes the expected weather conditions and any potential weather hazards. Other duties the IMETs are responsible for throughout the day include maintaining a weather watch, issuing weather alerts, ensuring weather equipment is functioning, conducting media interviews, providing briefings for the general public, and assisting with fire investigations.

NOAA National Weather Service IMETs have been assisting with wildfire suppression efforts since 1914, but today they are being used in other weather sensitive situations, such as HAZMAT, oil and chemical spills, national security and natural disaster relief efforts. IMETs have been called upon to provide onsite support for the Columbia Space Shuttle disaster, for the U.S. Coast Guard on large oil spills and for national security events (such as the 2004 Democratic and Republican National Conventions). IMETs provide critical and timely weather information anytime and anywhere a disaster strikes.

While NOAA IMETs specialize in providing highly localized "on-site" meteorological support, other (off-site) NOAA entities contribute useful fire weather information on larger scales - at county, state and national levels. For example, the NOAA Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla., provides daily "fire weather forecasts" for the contiguous 48 states and forecasters at NOAA's 122 local weather forecast offices predict weather in their specific areas of responsibility and issue "fire weather watches" and "red flag warnings" when appropriate.  (NOAA)

Tropical Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

Current situation:  Initial attack activity was light nationally with 78 new fires reported. Five new large fires were reported, three in the Florida, and one each in Tennessee and Pennslyvania. Five large fires were contained, three in Pennsylvania, and one each in Florida and Maine. Very high to extreme fire indices were reported in Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, Kansas, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Outlook:  Dry weather with low humidity will continue over the Southeast while a disturbance moving across the mid Atlantic coast will bring dry, windy weather to that region. Showers will extend from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes with another area of rain over New England. High pressure will help keep the Southwest warm and dry. However, a developing trough in the Great Basin will begin to increase the winds in the Southwest on Thursday.  (NIFC, NICC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)