National Situation Update: Wednesday, May 3, 2006
Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).
National Weather
Midwest: Showers and thunderstorms along and in advance of a cold front will dampen portions of the Midwest and Great Plains. Locations from the western Great Lakes to the lower Ohio Valley, Missouri and eastern Kansas will be the target of most of the precipitation. Some severe storms and scattered heavy downpours are expected to plague Missouri and parts of eastern Kansas. Farther north, wind-swept showers
will strike areas near the Canadian border as a storm lumbers over the Manitoban prairies.
Northeast: Most of New England, except northern Maine, will remain damp today as an ocean storm stalls southeast of Cape Cod. A few showers could move into eastern New York state. Farther west, an upper air disturbance may trigger showers from western Pennsylvania southeastward through eastern Virginia.
South: Scattered showers and thunderstorms will dot the landscape from Oklahoma to Tennessee in advance
of a cold front. Isolated storms, meanwhile, may make brief appearances in parts of the Deep South. Florida
and most of Texas should remain dry. A few severe storms may rumble across Oklahoma, Arkansas and extreme northern Texas.
West: Except for scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms over the Great Basin and
Rocky Mountains (especially in Colorado), the West should be dry today. There could be a storm or two moving up over the Sierras. (NWS, Media Sources)
Area Where Hurricanes Develop Is Warmer, Say NOAA Scientists
The region of the tropical Atlantic where many hurricanes originate has warmed by several tenths of a degree Celsius over the 20th century, and new climate model simulations suggest that human activity, such as increasing greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere, may contribute significantly to this warming. This new finding is one of several conclusions reported in a study by scientists at the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) in Princeton, N.J., published today in the Journal of Climate.
The region, which extends from 10 degrees N to 20 degrees N in the area of the Cape Verde Islands, has been identified as the origin for a large portion of major hurricanes in the tropical North Atlantic, and is known as the "Main Development Region." Ocean surface temperatures in this region warmed over the 20th century, roughly tracking the global average, but this region has greater multi-decade variability than the global average does when looking at long-term trends.
Atlantic hurricane variability and its causes is the subject of intensive scientific investigations by scientists. Earlier studies suggest that warmer tropical sea surface temperatures can lead to hurricanes of greater intensity. Other studies at NOAA have concluded that warmer sea surfaces is one of several important factors affecting Atlantic hurricane activity. Ongoing research continues to address uncertainties in the observed trend.
Other significant conclusions of the new GFDL study include findings that extend beyond the North Atlantic. An example is the Indian Ocean and western tropical Pacific, where a regional warming trend has emerged particularly clearly during the past half century. These conclusions support similar findings from earlier studies.
The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory advances NOAA's expert assessments of changes in national and global climate through research, improved models and products. The goal of GFDL's research is to understand and predict the Earth's climate and weather, including the impact of human activities.
NOAA, an agency of the U.S. Department of Commerce, is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and providing environmental stewardship of the nation's coastal and marine resources.
Through the emerging Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS), NOAA is working with its federal partners, 61 countries and the European Commission to develop a global network that is as integrated as the planet it observes, predicts and protects. (NOAA)
FEMA Regional Activities
Spot Report - Commonwealth of Puerto Rico - Fiscal Crisis # 4, May 2, 2006
INCIDENT: Fiscal crisis
STATE & LOCAL ACTIONS: The impasse between Governor Anibal Acevedo Vila and the PR House of Representatives continues. Yesterday, Resident Commissioner Luis Fortuño met with mayors, House representatives, union leaders, and business sector representatives to lobby in favor of the $531 million loan approved by the Senate and to present a 5.9% sales tax option which could permit the return of the government employees to their jobs, and resolve the current budget situation.
House President José Aponte met with Senate President Kenneth McClintock, but they did not come up with any final agreement to solve the fiscal crisis.
This afternoon, Governor Acevedo Vilá signed a House bill allocating $114.5 million to 12 agencies, but he explained that it does not solve the fiscal deficit situation.
Government employees, some mayors, and union workers continue holding protest rallies throughout the island, at the Governor's House, and at the State Capitol building. In addition, thousands of government employees are rushing to the Unemployment Office to alleviate their current circumstances.
The Police Department is in alert status. PRSEMA's EOC continues activated monitoring the situation. The CDO continues communication with PRSEMA. (FEMA Region II, PRSEMA)
Incident Report - Nebraska
1. INCIDENT: Bomb Threat - Lincoln, Nebraska.
On May 2, 2006, during a routine traffic stop on Interstate I-80, a passenger in a car told the Nebraska State Highway Patrol that he had a bomb in his car.
2. STATE ACTION: The Nebraska State Highway has closed Interstate I-80 from exits 405 through 409. The area closed is from the 77 Highway exit at Lincoln, Nebraska and east to the town of Waverly, Nebraska. The Nebraska State Patrol has contacted his family members and they indicate that this person has no means to make a bomb. The family was unsure if the man was suffering from emotional or drug problems.
The Nebraska Emergency Management Agency has notified the Department of Homeland Security and the FEMA Region VII office. They are coordinating with the State Highway Patrol on this incident.
3. STATUS: In Process
UPDATE as of 10:05am.
The interstate has reopened. The Nebraska Highway Patrol sent in a robot to search for a bomb in the car. No bomb was found. The driver of the car is in the custody of the Nebraska State Highway Patrol. (FEMA Region VII)
Mayor Nagin Outlines New Orleans Evacuation Plan
Mayor Ray Nagin unveiled a new evacuation strategy for New Orleans on Tuesday that relies more on buses and trains and eliminates the Superdome and Convention Center as shelters.
His new evacuation plan focuses on getting everyone out of the city for hurricanes stronger than Category 2, or those with sustained winds of 111 mph or higher. Katrina is believed to have been a Category 3 or 4 when it hit New Orleans.
In the future, Nagin said, the Convention Center will be a staging point for evacuations, not a shelter.
Nagin also said federal Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff had cleared the way for the use of Amtrak passenger trains in the event of an evacuation.
The new plan will take effect for any storms stronger than a Category 2, which have sustained winds of 111 mph or higher. An alternate plan for smaller storms, relying on temporary shelters in the city, is being devised for those now living in FEMA trailers. Most trailers become unstable once wind speeds surpass 45 miles per hour, which would be a weak tropical storm.
The plan also addresses specific problems that arose during Katrina, such as tourists being stranded in hotels and looting.
People with special medical needs and the elderly would be picked up by city, school and church buses and taken to the train station or evacuated by bus to shelters.
For security, 3,000 National Guard troops could be stationed with police throughout the city prior to a storm, and a dusk-to-dawn curfew would be in place once the evacuation was over, Police Superintendent Warren Riley said.
Before Katrina hit, about a million people drove out of the area on interstates as authorities converted all lanes coming toward New Orleans into outbound traffic. But many poor had no transportation or couldn't afford to leave.
The storm killed more than 1,300 people in Louisiana and Mississippi. Forecasters are expecting the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season, starting June 1 and running through November, to have at least nine hurricanes, five of them intense.
The new evacuation plan applies to a city that now has a vastly diminished population, less than half its pre-storm number of about 455,000.
In addition to the human elements, the plan touches on a heart-wrenching decision evacuees faced ahead of Katrina: To board the buses, they had to leave their pets, and some refused to go without them. In the future, evacuees will be allowed to bring pets with them as long as they are in a cage. (Media Sources)
Draft Report Outlines Plans for Pandemic
The federal government will stockpile 75 million doses of antiviral drugs and 20 million doses of vaccine to combat any outbreak of pandemic flu, according to a summary of a draft response plan expected to be unveiled today by the White House.
A flu pandemic would severely disrupt the economy, and private businesses and government agencies should assume that up to 40 percent of employees would be absent for up to two weeks at the height of each wave of infections, the undated 17-page draft summary says.
Local police departments and state National Guard units would have primary responsibility for keeping order, but the military would be available to assist.
The secretary of Health and Human Services will lead the government's response, with the Department of Homeland Security in a supporting role, the summary said.
An administration official, who was granted anonymity to speak because the plan had not been formally announced, said that it would lay out measures that businesses and agencies should take to minimize spread of a virus. The measures include allowing telecommuting, cutting back on the number of meetings, introducing liberal leave policies and staggering employee shifts. The goals include helping make sure that "people aren't coming and going from a workplace at the same time" and generally to "encourage people to stay at home" if they have any sense they are infected, the official said.
The first part of the plan was released in November. Under it, the federal government shouldered responsibility for developing a vaccine and stockpiling antivirals, and state and local governments were told to plan for the medical response and quarantine. Many of them soon complained that they had no money and no control over privately owned local hospitals.
The nation's borders would almost certainly not be closed, the draft summary says, because the virus would enter the country anyway, enforcement would be difficult, and such an action would "present foreign affairs complications and have significant negative social and economic consequences."
The federal government will establish policies for screening travelers for flu symptoms and make recommendations about quarantines. It could also restrict unnecessary domestic travel.
In addition to increasing the stockpile of human vaccines and antivirals, the government will increase the stockpile of poultry vaccines to 110 million doses. It will create separate stockpiles of masks, suits, disinfectants and antiviral medication for poultry workers.
Under the government's plan for the worst-case possibility, a pandemic flu could cause up to two million deaths in the United States. (Media Sources)
Engineers Say Fla. Dike Poses Storm Danger
With another hurricane season approaching, Gov. Jeb Bush has asked the federal government to shore up a dike that keeps the nation's second-largest lake from overflowing, after a report that predicts a catastrophe if the barrier fails.
The report by a state-hired panel of engineering experts said the flooding that could result from breaches on the dike surrounding Lake Okeechobee could harm Big Cypress National Preserve and the Everglades, perhaps irreversibly, and cause tens of billions of dollars in damage.
"It needs to be fixed now, and it needs to be fixed right," the engineers wrote in the 82-page report. "The region's future depends on it."
A dike failure could also contaminate South Florida's drinking water and flood thousands of acres of farmland.
Bush met Tuesday with Homeland Security chief Michael Chertoff, who was in the state capital for a readiness update on the hurricane season, which begins June 1.
Lake Okeechobee is surrounded by the 143-mile Herbert Hoover dike, built in the 1950s in part to prevent another disaster like the 1928 hurricane, in which flooding and storm surge from the lake killed more than 2,000 people.
The report noted that the dike has a 1 in 6 chance of being breached in a hurricane, Bush said.
The 730-square mile lake is the second-largest natural freshwater lake within the contiguous United States, behind Lake Michigan. (Media Sources)
Tropical Activity
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Earthquake Activity
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Preliminary Damage Assessments
Public Assistance PDAs for 8 counties in South Dakota have been completed. (FEMA HQ)
Wildfire Update
Current Situation: Initial attack activity was heavy nationally with 311 new fires reported. Three new large fires were reported, two in the Eastern Area, and one in the Southern Area. Very high to extreme fire indices were reported in Arizona, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas, Connecticut, Kansas, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania and Vermont.
Outlook: Dry weather with low humidity will continue along the Atlantic Coast states
except for showers over portions of New England. Showers will also stretch from the Great Lakes to the Ohio River Valley. High pressure will continue over the Southwest while a disturbance tracks across the central Rockies. (NIFC, NICC)
Disaster Declaration Activity
FEMA-1640-DR-HI was declared on May 2, 2006 for Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides. It provides for Individual and Public Assistance for the City and County of Honolulu and Kauai County.
FEMA-3266-EM-CT was declared on May 2, 2006 for Snow from February 11-12, 2006. It provides Public Assistance (Category B) for Fairfield, Hartford, New Haven, Tolland, and Windham Counties.
FEMA-1611-DR-CNMI is amended effective May 1, 2006 to provide Federal Funding for Hazard Mitigation Grant Program authorization at 100 percent of total eligible costs with the effective date as of the date of the President's major disaster declaration.
FEMA-1628-DR-CA received approval to close JFO operations effective May 1, 2006 and to convert to a recovery field office. (FEMA HQ)
Last Modified: Wednesday, 03-May-2006 08:12:22 EDT