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National Situation Update: Thursday, August 31, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Commercial Aviation ORANGE

Coordinated Actions for Tropical Storm Ernesto

DHS/FEMA Actions

• The NRCC issued Hurricane Ernesto Operations Order #3 on Wednesday, August 30, which directs continued planning and mission operations in response to Ernesto and also planning for a phased deactivation/demobilization of resources no longer required.
• FEMA provided a news release warning that Ernesto still remains a threat and residents of Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia and other states along the East Coast should be aware of inland flooding and other dangers after the storm passes.
• The Mid-Atlantic PFO is en route to SC.

Region III

• Virginia
• The State EOC will go to 24-hour activation Thursday
• The Management cell of ERT-A is at the EOC
• State Liaison Officers (SLO) are in place in Virginia , DC, and Maryland .
• A State Liaison Officer (SLO) will be deployed to Delaware Thursday.
• The ERT-A activated and pre-positioned in Virginia
• Region III Operations will determine requirements for ERT-A deployment in Pennsylvania and PDA Teams in both Pennsylvania and Virginia
• Preparing Federal Operation Staging Area (FOSA) in Fort AP Hill. Logistics requested MERS Unit , FOSA Team, Mobile Disaster Recovery Center (DRC), and material handling equipment.
• Ninety trailers have been pre-positioned in Virginia with 30 more projected to arrive today.

Region IV

Florida

• Florida counties have lifted protective measures.
• Special Needs patients are returning to the Keys.
• The State EOC moved to Level 2 activation Wednesday evening.
• Ernesto had no impact on the integrity of the Blue tarps.
• The management cell of the ERT-A will remain.

Georgia

• No significant impact at this time.

South Carolina

• State EOC operating at Level 2.
• South Carolina issued voluntary evacuation of Charleston County at noon, August 30.
• Schools along the coast will close Thursday.
• Last flight out of Charleston Airport until Ernesto passes is 9 am. Thursday
• SC has no need for additional resources

North Carolina

• The State EOC is currently at Level 3 activation and will activate to Level 1 at 7 am. Thursday.
• Fifteen Swift Water rescue teams have been identified

Other Federal Actions

• Coast Guard Center: Post landfall over-flights initiated.
• National Guard Bureau:
  • Maintaining communication with States and facilitate equipment or personnel as needed.
  • Aircraft available for assessment after storm passage.
• NORTHCOM: Received request for use of Ft. AP Hill; working on other potential Requests for Assistance. (FEMA 1800 Ernesto VTC)

Pennsylvania Dam

The 110 year old Piffer earthen dam in the vicinity of Polk, Venango County, PA was overtopping after the area received a large amount of rainfall during the preceding days.
One hundred residents are in an American Red Cross shelter.  State Engineers were on sight and had control of the draw down operations. The US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) has provided 800 sandbags and one sandbag filling machine to provide assistance in the life saving and property protection efforts. No other Federal assistance has been requested. (NORTHCOM)

National Weather Update

South: Tropical Storm Ernesto will move northward from the Florida Peninsula. Pockets of heavy rain and localized flooding are possible. Gusty winds may lead to isolated power outages. An isolated tornado is also possible. Elsewhere, expect thunderstorms to be scattered across much of the Southeast in the afternoon.
Northeast: A frontal boundary will be the focal point for heavy rain around the Chesapeake Bay. Rain may pick up in earnest later in the week from the Middle Atlantic region to Upstate New York as remnants of Tropical Storm Ernesto flows northward.
Midwest: Much of the Midwest will be dry; however showers are in the forecast from the lower Great Lakes down to the Ohio Valley. (NWS, Media Sources)

San Bernardino Wildfire Continues

• Firefighters in San Bernardino County expect to have the 2,000-acre Emerald Fire several miles north of Mentone, California contained by Friday evening. The fire was about 10% contained Wednesday. It has destroyed two homes and two outbuildings. About 50 homes and other structures in Mountain Home Village were evacuated on Tuesday. (Media sources)

Tropical Activity

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:
At 5:00 am. EDT Thursday the broad center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located about 90 miles east-southeast of Jacksonville, FL and about 195 miles south of Charleston, SC.

Ernesto was upgraded to a Tropical Storm at 11:25 pm. Wednesday night.

Ernesto is moving toward the north near 15 mph. A gradual turn toward the north-northeast and a faster forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours.  This motion will bring the center of Ernesto away from the coast of Florida and could bring the center near the South Carolina coast late Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated near 50 mph, with higher gusts.  Strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels is possible along the coasts of South and North Carolina in areas of onshore flow within the warning area.  Coastal storm surge flooding of one to three feet above normal tide levels is possible along the Georgia coast and the northeast coast of Florida in areas of onshore flow within the warning area.

Rainfall totals of four to eight inches are possible from northeast South Carolina into the Mid-Atlantic States and southern and central Appalachians with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches through Saturday. Tornadoes are possible over eastern North Carolina late this afternoon and tonight.

Central and Eastern Pacific
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on dangerous category four Hurricane John, centered about 450 miles southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Baja California, and on Tropical Storm Kristy, centered about 790 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Neither of these systems will affect U.S. Territories or interests.

Elsewhere, tropical storm formation is not expected through Thursday.

Western Pacific
There are no threats to U.S. Territories or Interests, and no new tropical storm formation is expected through Thursday. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center).

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 5

• Initial attack activity was light nationally with 89 new fires reported.
• Seven new large fires were reported, two each in the Eastern Great Basin, Northern Rockies and Southern California Areas and one in the Northwest Area.
• Seven large fires were contained, three in the Eastern Great Basin Area, two in the Northern Rockies Area and one each in the Northwest and Southern California Areas. Area.
• Very high to extreme fire indices were reported in Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Dakota, Oregon, South Dakota, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming.

Red Flag Warning:

• For much of eastern Montana , western North Dakota , northern Nevada , Idaho and western Utah due to strong winds and low relative humidity.
• For Bighorn Mountains of Wyoming for dry thunderstorms and strong winds.
• For portions of the southern California mountains due to low relative humidity.

Major Evacuations/Structures Threatened:

• There are currently 44 large fires reported on the Situation Report, of these 14 are still posing a significant threat to structures and other improvements.
• The remaining fires have either mitigated the structure threat or are in remote areas. (National Interagency Fire Center , National Infrastructure Coordination Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

• FEMA-1659-DR-New Mexico was declared on August 30, 2006, for severe storms and flooding on July 26, 2006, and continuing.  Dona Ana County has been designated for Individual Assistance.  Cibola, Dona Ana, Lincoln, Luna, Otero, Socorro, and Valencia Counties have been designated for Public Assistance. All counties are eligible to apply for assistance under the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program (HMGP) (FEMA HQ)