National Situation Update: Wednesday, August 30, 2006
Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).
Commercial Aviation ORANGE
National Weather Update
South: Tropical Storm Ernesto will take center stage for the southern region as it moves northward up the Florida Peninsula. Pockets of heavy rain and localized flooding are possible. Gusty winds may lead to isolated power outages. An isolated tornado is also possible. Elsewhere, expect thunderstorms to be scattered across much of the Southeast in the afternoon.
Northeast: Expect a few showers across parts of southeastern New York, Pennsylvania and southern New England. To the south, a frontal boundary will be the focal point for heavier rain around the Chesapeake Bay. Rain may pick up in earnest later in the week from the Middle Atlantic region to Upstate New York as remnants of Tropical Storm Ernesto flows northward.
West: The fire danger will be at critical levels across much of the Northwest as most of the region remains dry. A few light showers are possible across parts of Washington. Elsewhere, look for isolated thunderstorms over the higher terrain of Arizona and New Mexico.
Midwest: Much of the Midwest will be dry, however showers are in the forecast from the lower Great Lakes down to the Ohio Valley. (NWS, Media Sources)
Coordinated Actions for Tropical Storm Ernesto
DHS/FEMA Actions
NOC/NRCC and Region IV RRCC at Level 1 - Full Activation Status, with all ESFs Present
Updated Operations Orders being drafted for Regions IV and III based on changes in Storm Path
Region III RRCC to operate at Level II with ESFs 1, 3 and 10 (from 7:30 am -7:30 pm EDT).
Engaging with governors and state emergency managers in the anticipated impact states to begin federal and state coordination.
Working with partners at the National Hurricane Center to anticipate the storm's landfall.
Forward Deployed Response Teams including Federal Incident Response Support Teams (FIRST), Disaster Medical Assistance Teams (DMATs)and Urban Search and Rescue US&R Teams.
Forward Deployed Logistics Push Packets
Issued 50 Mission Assignments for a total of $17,867,583 including mission assignments to:
Cabinet Level Departments of: Defense, Energy, Interior, Justice, Transportation, Health & Human Services, Agriculture
APHIS, CBP, EPA, FPS, GSA, NCS, NOAA, NGA, USACE, USCG, USFS
Recovery
Four new Mobile Registration Intake Centers deploying to and pre-positioning at Atlanta.
All FEMA Call Centers prepared to transition to 24/7 operations at full staffing.
USACE directed to deploy Housing Planning Team to begin scoping a potential temporary housing mission.
600 staff pre-positioned in Florida to conduct in-shelter registrations, if required.
DoD Actions
Conducted NORTHCOM Severe Weather Teleconference 3:30 pm EDT August 28, 2006.
Providing support to Defense Coordinating Officers/Defense Coordination Elements
Coordinating FEMA ESF1 (Transportation) request for US Transportation Command liaison officer support to NRCC.
Coordinating support to FEMA Federal Operational Staging Areas (FOSAs).
Joint National Guard Bureau, Georgia National Guard, South Carolina National Guard, and North Carolina National Guard are monitoring TS Ernesto, coordinating operational decisions, and executing storm warning preparations per state Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs).
Department of Defense Joint Staff sourcing FEMA request for six officers to support Joint Operations Center (JOC) and NRCC synchronization between NRCC, US Northern Command, US Pacific
Command, US Southern Command, US Transportation Command, Defense Logistics Agency and Joint National Guard Bureau.
Potential Florida Concerns
Ability to maintain adequate re-supply through L+72 hours, depending on scope of impact damage and if multiple states are impacted.
Flooding and flash flooding particularly if the urban areas of Miami are affected. This could impact commodity movement, create additional generator requirements and impact shelter requirements.
Storm surge impact on the Keys and particularly Tampa Bay with the surrounding high population density.
The Lake Okeechobee/Herbert Hoover Dike status and impact of surge and flooding. Not a concern now but needs to be watched.
Potential Concerns - GA, SC, NC, VA, MD, DC, DE
Logistics ability to maintain adequate re-supply through L+72 hours, depending on scope of impact damage and multiple state impact
Flooding and flash flooding: particularly if the urban areas and low lying coastal areas are affected. This could impact commodity movement, create additional generator requirements and impact shelter requirements.
Storm surge impact on the Barrier Islands with the surrounding high population density.
Labor Day Holiday Week/Weekend
Coastal Beaches and the Barrier Islands of the Coastal States are extremely popular holiday week/weekend destinations.
Populations in these areas are significantly above normal, primarily with non residents who may be unfamiliar with evacuation routes and procedures
People heading to holiday destinations may impede evacuation flow
Holiday travelers may be disconnected from media providing evacuation messaging
Holiday travelers may fill hotels that might otherwise be available for evacuation housing, dramatically expanding need for shelter space
Schools are starting fall semester
Limiting availability for use as shelters
Particularly inland schools sheltering beyond holiday weekend(FEMA HQ, FEMA Region III, FEMA Region IV)
Tropical Activity
Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:
At 5:00 am EDT Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located in northeastern mainland Monroe County Florida. This is also about 45 miles west-southwest of Miami Florida and about 90 miles south-southwest of West Palm Beach Florida.
Ernesto is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph. A turn to the north with an increase in forward speed is expected later today. The center of Ernesto is expected to remain over the Florida Peninsula for the next day or so.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph with higher gusts. Some weakening is possible due to the center of circulation remaining over the Florida Peninsula and Ernesto could weaken to a Tropical Depression later today. However rainbands containing strong gusty winds to tropical storm force will continue to move onshore today in the warning areas especially along the Florida East Coast.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center. Recently a wind gust to 58 mph was reported at the Fowey Rocks c-man station and wind gusts to tropical storm force have been occurring in the Middle and Upper Keys, and over the central and southern portions of Miami-Dade and mainland Monroe Counties.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
Coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels can be expected in areas of onshore flow within the warning area.
Isolated tornadoes are possible over the east coast of florida today and tonight.
Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are possible near the track of Ernesto over south and central Florida through today with isolated amounts up to 10 inches possible. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with isolated amounts of 4 inches are possible over the Bahamas. Moisture will spread northward well in advance of Ernesto through Georgia and the Carolinas today. This could bring 1 to 2 inches of rain as far north as Virginia, southern Maryland and southern Delaware by Thursday morning with isolated amounts up to 4 inches.
Elsewhere, tropical storm formation is not expected through Thursday.
Eastern Pacific and Indian Ocean:
There are no current threats to U.S. Territories or interests and tropical storm formation is not expected through Thursday.
Western Pacific:
There are no current threats to U.S. Territories or interests.
Internationally, Super Typhoon Ioke is located approximately 357 miles east-southeast of Wake Island, and is tracking west-northwestward at 08 mph. Maximum significant wave height is 50 feet. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center).
Earthquake Activity
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Preliminary Damage Assessments
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Wildfire Update
National Preparedness Level 5
Initial attack activity was light nationally with 121 new fires reported.
Four new large fires were reported in the Northern Rockies.
Two large fires were contained in the Southern Area.
Very high to extreme fire indices were reported in California, Idaho, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming.
Two MAFFS C-130 aircraft and support personnel from the 153rd Airlift Wing, Cheyenne, Wyoming are deployed to Klamath Falls, OR. Two MAFFS C-130 aircraft and support personnel from the 146th Airlift Wing ANG, Channel Islands California are deployed to Boise, ID. The U.S. Army Task Force Blaze is deployed to the Tripod Complex in Washington State. This is a Battalion size unit equating to 25 twenty person crews.
A representative from Australia and one from New Zealand are in place at NIFC. There are 92 mid-level fireline and aviation management supervisors in place in the U.S assisting with suppression operations.
Canada's fire situation has abated and the Canadians are now assisting the United States.
They have provided 10 Type 1 Crews and 59 fireline and aviation supervisory personnel.
There are currently 12 Canadian Smokejumpers working on fires in Montana.
Red Flag Warning:
For much of eastern Oregon, Idaho, Montana, western North Dakota, northern Nevada and western Utah due to strong winds and low relative humidity.
For portions of the southern California mountains due to low relative humidity.
Weather Discussion:
A strong low pressure system will move into the Pacific Northwest today with windy conditions across much of the northwest quarter of the country through mid-week. The associated cold front will bring a chance of Thunderstorms to eastern portions of the Northwest, Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming Tuesday and Wednesday.
Much cooler weather and higher relative humidity will follow the front Wednesday and Thursday with a chance of showers for Wyoming, and portions of Idaho and Montana. Scattered thundershowers are expected in Texas today with warmer and drier weather Wednesday through the end of the week.
Major Evacuations/Structures Threatened:
There are currently 50 large fires reported on the Situation Report, of these 11 are still posing a significant threat to structures and other improvements.
The remaining fires have either mitigated the structure threat or are in remote areas not currently a threat to improvements. (National Interagency Fire Center, National Infrastructure Coordination Center)
Disaster Declaration Activity
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Last Modified: Wednesday, 30-Aug-2006 08:11:11 EDT