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National Situation Update: Sunday, August 27, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Commercial Aviation ORANGE

Ernesto Now a Category 1 Hurricane

Recent dropsonde and flight-level wind data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds in Tropical storm Ernesto have increased to 75 mph. This makes Ernesto a Category 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane scale.

The center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 17.0 N longitude 73.1 W or about 120 miles SSW of Port au Prince, Haiti, about 255 miles, ESE of Kingston, Jamaican and 750 miles SE of Miami.

Ernesto is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph. and this general motion is expected to continue for the the next 24 hours. On this track the center of Ernesto is expected to pass very near southwestern tip of Haiti this afternoon or early evening and be near the southeastern coast of Cuba tomorrow morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph. with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours and Ernesto could become a category 2 Hurricane before it reaches the coast of Cuba.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.23 inches).

Tides of up to 3 ft above normal tide levels are expected on Jamaica and the southwestern peninsula of Haiti as the center of Ernesto  approaches.

Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with possible isolated amounts of up to 20 inches are expected over Haiti and the Dominican Republic.  These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.  Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with possible isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches are expected across portions of Jamaica and eastern Cuba.  The outer bands of Ernesto may produce 1 to 3 inch rainfall amounts across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.  (National Hurricane Center)
 

National Weather

Northeast
The Northeast is in line for an additional bout of heavy rain. A low-pressure area moving along the front through the Great Lakes will slide into the region tomorrow.  Rain and thunderstorms could dump as much as 1 to 3 inches across New York, southern New England, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and adjacent areas of West Virginia, Maryland and Delaware. A few storms in the Middle Atlantic states could turn severe with damaging wind gusts and hail.

Midwest
One area of low pressure moving through the Great Lakes will push the cold front southward into the Ohio Valley and trigger some severe thunderstorms and downpours, especially in Ohio. Then the upper-level low from out of the West will induce a wave of low pressure on the front stretched from the Ohio Valley, through the mid-Mississippi Valley, into the southern Plains.  Heavy rain and thunderstorms will douse eastern Nebraska, southern Iowa and Missouri. Rainfall will be in the 1-to-4-inch range and some isolated spots could pick up close to 6 inches. Flash flooding will be a problem.

South
The upper-level low coming out of the West, plenty of moisture available and the front sagging southward will combine to bring strong-to-occasionally-severe thunderstorms and inch-plus downpours to Oklahoma and both northern and western Texas. Many parts of the southern Plains need a foot or more of rain to snuff out the drought.

West
As an upper-level trough heads for the Plains and Ohio Valley, the eastern Rockies and high Plains will have one more thundery day tomorrow. Then an upper-level high-pressure ridge will take control.   (NWS, Media Sources).

FEMA NRCC TS Ernesto Actions

DHS/FEMA issued Operations Order #01-2006, August 26, 2006

DHS/NOC activated pre-identified JFO Coordination Groups for LA, TX, MS, AL and FL and DSATs.

NDMS activated and prepared to deploy to TLC Fort Worth: DMAT CA-1, CA-4, FL-2, GA-3, MO-1, MA-2, MI-1, and TX-4; VMAT -3; CA-3 (Mental Health); MST – Blue; and Strike Teams SC-1 and TN-1

NDMS alerted DMAT FL-4, MA-1, OK-1, OR-2, PA-3, RI-1, WA-1and alerted Strike Teams KY-1 (2 each), VA-1 (2 each), CA-11 (2 each). IMSURT- East (Medical Surgical Team) and VMAT-5, DMORT Region IV, IL-2 (Mental Health Team), MST Red Team for anticipated deployment to Atlanta TLC

ESF 9 activated the following elements to prepare to deploy:

Louisiana - Camp Beauregard : White IST, Type I Task Force (TF): TX-TF1, MO-TF1, and Type III TFs: CA-TF8, CA-TF3, WA-TF1, CA-TF6

Alabama - Maxwell AFB: Blue IST, Type I TFs: TN-TF1, Fl-TF1, and Type III TFs: VA-TF2, IN-TF1, MA-TF1, VA-TF1. FIRST-Atlanta and Chicago activated. Atlanta activated in place. Chicago deploying to Memphis , TN.

ERT-N Blue activated in-place and prepared to support R-IV, R-VI, or LA JFO.

ERT-N Red alerted and prepared to support R-IV or R-VI ( Texas ).

NRCC and R-IV and VI RRCCs activated and prepared to deploy their JFO Logistics Advance Teams.

DHS/FEMA Response Division, Logistics Branch directed TLC Fort Worth to prepare JFO Support Kits for field deployment.

DHS/FEMA CIO will direct the DISC to prepare to provide DISC Packs for field deployment as required.

DHS/FEMA NRCC initiated pre-landfall effects and consequences modeling and requested historical and pre-landfall remote sensing activities. (FEMA HQ)

FEMA Region IV RRCC TS Ernesto Actions

Florida conducted a conference call with the National Hurricane Center August 26, 2006 and will activate to Level 2 (Partial) at 9:00 am EDT, Sunday, August 27.  Region IV States are reviewing evacuation plans.  Specifically, Mississippi and Louisiana have been developing evacuation contingencies and identifying required resources.  No requests have been received from the States.

Region IV Actions
The Region IV Gulf Coast Con Ops Plan has been implemented.
Contact has been made with States to determine operational status and their preparatory measures.
All Teams have been placed on Alert
The FIRST team will remain on standby at the Atlanta RRCC until deployed.
The NDMS Teams are scheduled to deploy to the Atlanta and Ft. Worth Territorial Logistics Center.
Maintain contact with back-up Regions VIII & IX.
Update, as needed, the NRCC with Team Leaders, PFOs, FCOs, DCO information.
The HLT has been activated to Level 3 and staff will be deployed today.
Response liaison have been identified and on standby for Florida, Alabama, Mississippi.  Backups will be determined.
ESFs 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, DOD and Coast Guard have been placed on standby for a possible RRCC Level II activation.
Maintain contact with States to determine operational status and their preparatory measures.
Maintain contact with Region IV ERT-A, field teams, RNA, NDMS, FIRST, and USAR.
Continue to coordinate all pre-staged resources within the Region and are identifying any shortfalls or requirements.
No limiting factors at this time.  (FEMA Region IV)

Tripod Complex Fire

Reported: August 26, 2006, 2:00 pm EDT
 
The Tripod Complex Fire, located 7 miles Northeast of Wintrop, WA in Okanagan County, has consumed 135,000 acres of federal and state land.  Containment is reported at 48%.  There are currently 100 homes threatened. 

This fire was started by lightning on July 24, 2006.  The Governor declared a state of emergency for the fires for the State of Washington and fire fighting resources have been requested from Canada and the state of California. 

There are 21 large fires burning in the state of Washington.  Current weather is hot and dry with the temperature at 90 degrees, Humidity 15 percent, Winds NW at 12 gusting to 20.
Two Type I Teams, 12 Helicopters, 78 engines, 26 dozers and a total of 2310 personnel.  All local & state resources committed.

FEMA Region X will continue to monitor.  No further FEMA assistance requested.  (FEMA Region X)

Tropical Activity

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:
Other than Hurricane Ernesto, no tropical formation is expected through tomorrow.

Pacific/Indian Ocean:  
There are no threats at this time.
(USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center).

Earthquake Activity

Eleven earthquakes, ranging in severity from 3.8 to 5.7 occurred in just under four hours in a remote area of Alaska.  There have been no reports of damages or injuries and no requests for Federal assistance.  (United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

NATIONAL PREPAREDNESS LEVEL - 5

Current Situation:
Initial attack activity was light nationally with 143 new fires reported.  Six new large fires were reported, two in the Northwest area and one each in the Eastern Great Basin, Rocky Mountain, Northern California and Southern Areas. 

Seven large fires were contained, two each in the Northern Rockies and Southern Areas and one each in the Rocky Mountain, Western Great Basin, and Northern California Area. 

Very high to extreme fire indices were reported in Arizona, California, Idaho, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming.

Two MAFFS C-130 aircraft and support personnel from the 153rd Airlift Wing, Cheyenne, Wyoming are deployed to Klamath Falls, OR.  Two MAFFS C-130 aircraft and support personnel from the 146th Airlift Wing ANG, Channel Islands California are deployed to Boise, ID.

The U.S. Army Task Force Blaze is deployed to the Tripod Complex in Washington State.  This is a Battalion size unit equating to 25 twenty person crews.

A representative from Australia and one from New Zealand are in place at NIFC.  There are 41 mid-level fireline and aviation management supervisors in place in the U.S.  This group has been deployed to the Pacific Northwest. 

With the current of activity, an additional 30 to 40 fireline and aviation supervisors from Australia and New Zealand were ordered.  These personnel are going through a two day orientation prior to mobilization.  
Canada's fire situation has abated and the Canadian's are now assisting the United States.  They have provided 6 Type 1 Crews and 39 fireline and aviation supervisory personnel.  These resources have deployed to fires primarily in the Eastern Great Basin.  There are currently 12 Canadian Smokejumpers working on fires in Montana.  Four additional Canadian Crews have been mobilized to Kalispell Montana.

Structure Loss 2006 Season year to date: Primary 613, Commercial 46, Outbuildings 1302

Critical resource needs:

Mid-level fireline and aviation management personnel
Type 1 Hotshot Crews
Type 2 Initial Attack Crews
Type 2 Crews

Outlook: 
Red Flag Warning:  In effect through noon Saturday on the west slope and foothills of the northern Sierra Nevada, for light to moderate northeast to east winds, combined with low relative humidity and poor overnight recovery on mid to upper slopes Saturday night. 

Shower and thunderstorms will continue today over eastern Idaho, southern Montana, and much of Wyoming.  This is in response to a low pressure system moving across the area.  Breezy conditions are expected today over the southern Great Basin, Wyoming and Colorado. 

Warmer conditions will begin on the West Coast today and spread east through Tuesday as a high pressure ridge builds.  Elsewhere, dry and windy conditions will continue today over central Texas, with cooler conditions and higher relative humidity Sunday through early next week.

Major Evacuations/Structures Threatened:
There are currently 60 large fires reported on the Situation Report, of these 19 are still posing a significant threat to structures and other improvements.  The remaining fires have either mitigated the structure threat or are in remote areas not currently a threat to improvements.  (National Interagency Fire Center, National Infrastructure Coordination Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)