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National Situation Update: Saturday, August 19, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

West: Thunderstorms are forecast from the Four Corners area to western Texas with the potential to produce localized flooding. Flood watches remain in effect across much of New Mexico into extreme western Texas. Parts of the Interior West and Pacific Northwest will see elevated temperatures this weekend. Up to 100 degrees in the Yakima Valley of Washington. Highs well over 100 degrees will also prevail across much of the Desert Southwest.

Midwest: A frontal system draped across the Midwest from a low near Chicago will produce rain with occasional thunderstorms, across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. The interaction of that same front and tropical moisture will result in locally heavy rain from Kansas southward into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Localized flooding is possible over some of these areas, as well. High temperatures will range from the 60s over northern Wisconsin to over 100 degrees in the southern Plains.

South: Rain will be spotty from the Carolinas through Florida but parts of southern Texas may see thunderstorms as moisture moves in from the Gulf of Mexico. High temperatures will reach the 90s from the Gulf Coast to northern Georgia and over 100 across northeast Texas, Arkansas and northern Louisiana.

Northeast: The frontal system moving in from the west will produce rain across much of the region today and tonight. Moderate to heavy rain could result in localized flooding across parts of eastern Ohio, western Pennsylvania, and western New York on Saturday. The rain should slowly diminish from west to east on Sunday. (NWS, Media Sources)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea: The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a number of tropical waves and low pressure areas for signs of development.

Eastern Pacific: Hurricane Hector is 1300 miles southwest of San Diego, Ca.  Hector is moving toward the west-northwest at 13 mph. Based on the current warning this system poses no threat to the U.S. and should begin weakening as it begins to move over colder water.

A tropical wave extends along 91W north of 4N across Guatemala and the Yucatan Peninsula moving west about 12-17 mph. No deep convection is noted with this wave however some broad turning in mid level clouds is seen west of the wave from 9N to 13N between 92W-100W. Upper level winds appear favorable for development over the next few days and model guidance suggest that more defined low pressure may evolve from this wave over the next few days.

Western Pacific: The final warning has been issued on Tropical Depression 11W (Wukong) which is forecast to dissipate over the Korean Peninsula. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center).

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No significant activity during the last 24 hours in the U.S. or its territories.

Internationally, there was a 5.5 (Moderate) earthquake in southern Mexico 240 miles south-southeast of Mexico City on Saturday August 19 at 1:41 am EDT.  Reports from local media indicate no major damage or injuries. (United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Various News Media)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

ALASKA: Fire August 2-3, 2006.  Individual Assistance and Public Assistance PDAs for the community of Hooper Bay are scheduled to begin on August 21, 2006.

IDAHO: Levee Impacts May 17-June 28, 2006. Public Assistance PDAs for an undetermined number of counties are scheduled to begin on August 23, 2006.

NEW MEXICO: Flash Flood July 31, 2006, and continuing.  Individual Assistance PDA for Dona Ana County is scheduled to begin on August 18, 2006, and Public Assistance PDAs for 15 counties are scheduled to begin on August 21, 2006. (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 5 (on a scale of 1 to 5)

On August 18, 2006, Initial attack activity was moderate nationally with 236 new fires reported. Six new large fires were reported, two in South Dakota, and one each in Idaho, Montana, Texas, and Wyoming. Six large fires were contained, three in Idaho, and one each in Montana, Nevada, and South Dakota.

Very high to extreme fire indices were reported in Arkansas, California, Idaho, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Washington and Wyoming. Two Modular Airborne Fire Fighting System (MAFFS) C-130 aircraft and support personnel from the 153 rd Airlift Wing Air National Guard (ANG), Cheyenne, Wyoming are deployed to Klamath Falls, Oregon. Two other MAFFS C-130 aircraft and support personnel from the 146th Airlift Wing ANG, Channel Islands, California are deployed to Boise, Idaho.

The U.S. Army Task Force Blaze is assigned to the Tripod Complex in Washington. The fire has burned 103,291 acres and is 30 percent contained. This complex, consisting of the Spur Peak and Tripod fires, is located seven miles northeast of Winthrup. Numerous residences and other structures remain threatened. (National Fire Information Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

The JFO for FEMA-1645-ND will close on August 25, 2006.

The major disaster FEMA 1606-DR-Texas dated September 24, 2005 is amended effective August 18, 2006. This amendment establishes Federal funds for debris removal and emergency protective measures (Categories A and B), including direct Federal assistance, under the Public Assistance program, are authorized at 100 percent of total eligible costs, through and including June 30, 2006.  Effective July 1, 2006, the Federal funding for debris removal and emergency protective measures (Categories A and B), including direct Federal assistance, under the Public Assistance program, is authorized at 90 percent of total eligible costs.  Further, Federal funds for all categories of Public Assistance are authorized at 90 percent of total eligible costs, except assistance previously approved at 100 percent. (FEMA HQ)