• Emergency Managers and Personnel
• Situation Reports
• National Incident Management System
• Grants & Assistance Programs
• Training
• Contacts
• Planning
• Best Practices

National Situation Update: Friday, August 18, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

West: The summer monsoon will produce more rain across parts of eastern Arizona, southern Colorado, western Texas and New Mexico today and Saturday. The additional heavy rainfall is likely to create additional flooding across parts of the region. The Pacific Northwest will see high temperatures reaching the lower 90s.

Midwest: A low over Nebraska and associated frontal system will produce rain and thunderstorms from the Dakotas to the western Great Lakes and eventually down to the Ohio Valley by early Saturday. The cloud cover and precipitation will hold temperatures down in the 70s and 80s across the northern half of the region. Temperatures will remain in the 90s to near 100 over the central Plains and middle Mississippi Valley.

South: Low pressure off the Southeast coast will produce showers and thunderstorm for Georgia and northern Florida. The rest of the South will have only a few scattered thunderstorms along the Gulf Coast region. Look for highs to in the triple digits in central Texas and Oklahoma.

Northeast: A ridge of high pressure will result in good weather for the region with a threat of a few isolated thunderstorms on Saturday. (NWS, Media Sources)

Study Recommends Steps for Improving Space Weather Activities

Users of space weather forecasts and warnings issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Space Environment Center can expect longer lead times and greater accuracy in anticipating solar storms and their impacts on Earth if recommendations from a new federal review of the National Space Weather Program are implemented.

The Office of the Federal Coordinator of Meteorological Services and Supporting Research sponsored the recently published review of the National Space Weather Program, which was conducted by an outside team of space weather experts. According to the independent review, the National Space Weather Program must be updated, strengthened and better funded to meet even minimal requirements for protecting the U.S. economy, government and national security from solar disturbances in Earth's space environment.

NOAA is one of the National Space Weather Program's seven member agencies and the lead for coordinating space weather operations and services worldwide. The NOAA Space Environment Center monitors and predicts solar activity and impacts within Earth's space environment. It also issues official space weather forecasts, warnings, alerts and data for civilian users. The SEC works closely with the NOAA National Geophysical Data Center, also located in Boulder, and is one of the world's primary resources for solar-terrestrial data.

"As our basic commercial infrastructure becomes more reliant on electronic equipment, wireless communications and satellite services, our national economy is more vulnerable to space weather," said retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad Lautenbacher, Ph.D., Undersecretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere and NOAA Administrator. "NOAA's Space Environment Center is the first line of defense against damage to critical equipment. We have been given a clear road map by the National Space Weather Program Assessment Committee for how to move the program into the next stages of preparedness."

NOAA's Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) 13 satellite, now in orbit and ready to replace an earlier GOES when needed, carries new instruments for measuring solar X-rays and extreme ultraviolet radiation. Traveling through space at the speed of light, x-rays arrive in Earth's atmosphere eight minutes after the start of a solar storm. At 90 miles up, they disrupt high-frequency communications critical for airline and military operations.

Space weather disruptions to government satellites alone are estimated at $100 million a year. One study found solar-caused geomagnetic storms from June 2000 through December 2001 raised the price of electricity $500 million. Diverting commercial flights to avoid radiation exposure and communications problems can cost an airline $100,000 per flight. Radio communications blackouts during wartime or poor timing of an astronaut's space walk can cost lives as well as dollars. (Excerpt from NOAA Magazine http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2684.htm )

Summary of Forecasts and Hazards

Valid Sunday, August 20, 2006 - Thursday, August 31, 2006

The mean pattern will continue to be one with troughs off the Pacific Coast and near or just inland from the Atlantic Coast, with the mean jet stream position just south of the U.S.-Canadian border. Storm systems moving east in this flow may trigger occasional outbreaks of severe thunderstorms, but specific times and locations are not predictable.

It should be noted that we are heading into the climatologically most active part of the Atlantic hurricane season, and Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are above normal in many areas where low vertical wind shear is also present. A lack of enough moisture to support organized deep convection seems to be the main inhibiting factor at present.

Hazards:

• From August 20 - 22, excess heat is expected to continue across the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley, although cooler air is expected to gradually push southward into this region.
• Fire danger will be high in and around Oklahoma and northern Texas.
• There is an ongoing risk for wildfires across the Great Basin, northern Rockies, and northern High Plains, with increased risk over the northwestern part.
• Severe drought will persist across the central states; some relief is possible, especially over the central Plains.
• Severe drought will persist across portions of the Southeast and Arizona; some relief is possible in both these areas. (NOAA, NWS, Climate Prediction Center)
  

Tropical Activity

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea: The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a number of tropical waves and low pressure areas in the Atlantic for signs of development.

Eastern Pacific: Hurricane Hector is 1260 miles south-southwest of San Diego CA moving toward the west-northwest at 12 mph.  Hector is forecast to strengthen slightly over the next few 24 hours and then begin to weaken over cooler water. Based on the current warning this system poses no threat to the U.S.

Western Pacific: Tropical Storm 11W (Wukong) currently moving into the Sea of Japan poses no threat to U.S. territories. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center).

Earthquake Activity

The most significant earthquake during the last 24 hours was a magnitude 4.5 (Light) earthquake on August 17, 2006 at 3:32 pm EDT in the Andreanof Islands, part of the Aleutian Island chain in Alaska.  The epicenter was 1064 miles west-southwest of Anchorage at a depth of 0.6 mile.  No tsunami was generated. (United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

Continuing rain and flooding in New Mexico has caused the state to prepare a request for Individual Assistance (IA) and Public Assistance (PA) Preliminary Damage Assessments (PDA) to be performed. One IA team will depart to begin PDA on Friday, 18 August 2006.  The PDA will be done in Dona Ana County. The PDA will focus on the city of Hatch. Three PA Teams will depart on Monday, 21 August 2006 to perform PDA's in fifteen counties of New Mexico. (FEMA Region VI)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 5

On August 17, 2006, Initial attack activity was moderate nationally with 270 new fires reported.
Nine new large fires were reported, three Nevada, two in Utah, and one each in Idaho, Montana, Texas, and Wyoming. Firefighters contained ten large fires on August 16, two each in California, Idaho, and Oregon, and one each in Florida, Montana, Texas, and Wyoming.

Very high to extreme fire indices were reported in Arizona, Arkansas, California, Idaho, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Washington and Wyoming.

Two Modular Airborne Fire Fighting System (MAFFS) C-130 aircraft and support personnel from the 153rd Airlift Wing Air National Guard (ANG), Cheyenne, Wyoming are deployed to Klamath Falls, Oregon. Two other MAFFS C-130 aircraft and support personnel from the 146th Airlift Wing ANG, Channel Islands, California are deployed to Boise, Idaho.

The U.S. Army Task Force Blaze, is assigned to the Tripod Complex in Washington. The Tripod and Spur Peak fires have burned more than 99,000 acres between Winthrop and Conconully. Fire crews were bracing for a high-pressure system today that could bring higher temperatures, low humidity and increasing fire activity. (National Fire Information Center, Various Media Sources)

Disaster Declaration Activity

FEMA-1644-DR-ME Amendment #2, effective August 14, 2006 appoints Philip E. Parr vice Kenneth Clark as FCO.

FEMA-1643-DR-NH Amendment #4, effective August 14, 2006 appoints Philip E. Parr vice Kenneth Clark as FCO.

FEMA-3267-EM-MO Amendment #2, effective August 16, 2006 adds Oregon County for debris removal and emergency protective measures (Cat A/B) under the Public Assistance Program. (FEMA HQ)