National Situation Update: Wednesday, August 16, 2006
Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).
Significant National Weather
Northeast: Except for a stray shower or thundershower in the Tidewater of Virginia on Wednesday, fine late-summer weather will prevail in the Northeast.
South: Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast for much of the Southeast on Wednesday as a weak cold front pushes into the area and stalls. A few storms could turn severe with damaging wind gusts. Farther west, a few showers and storms move into far western Texas and isolated storms to parts of Oklahoma. Meanwhile, temperatures in the 100s will continue in much of Oklahoma and the eastern half of Texas.
Midwest: Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms are predicted for the Plains. While there may be some spotty heavy downpours, no excessive rainfall is expected.
West: Scattered to isolated showers and storms are forecasted for the Northwest, Rockies and higher terrain of the Southwest on Wednesday, with the heaviest downpours localized unloading on New Mexico. More flash flooding could result from these downpours. Since it is impossible to pinpoint where any such flooding will occur, residents should pay close attention to rapidly changing conditions. Sunshine will dominate the Great Basin and California. (NWS, Media Sources)
Tropical Activity
Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea: Slow formation of a tropical depression several hundred miles southeast of the Carolinas is possible during the next couple of days. While a broad area of circulation does exist, convection has been minimal. More showers and thunderstorms will need to flare up around this system before it garners more interest. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system today, if necessary.
A large cluster of showers and thunderstorms developed in the northern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday and raised concerns about the potential for tropical development. This convection has trended towards weakening, however, some slow development of this system is possible over the next day or so
Elsewhere, tropical storm formation is not expected through Thursday, August 17th.
Eastern Pacific: The National Hurricane Center has begun issuing advisories on newly-formed Tropical Depression 9-E, a cluster of showers and thunderstorms centered approximately 750 miles SSW of the southern tip of Baja California. Initial intensity is set at 34.5 mph. The forecast calls for this cyclone to intensify over the next several days (its name would be Gilma), it is expected to continue to move westward, away from land.
Elsewhere, tropical storm formation is not expected through Thursday.
Western Pacific: Tropical Storm Wukong (50 mph) is swirling northwestward toward southern Japan. Wukong is expected to be approaching the southern island, Kyushu, as a minimal typhoon later this week. Meanwhile, Sonamu has weakened to a Tropical Depression and is expected to dissipate within 24 hours. No U.S. interests will be affected.
Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Wednesday. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center).
Earthquake Activity
A strong earthquake, preliminary magnitude 6.0, occurred in the Rat Islands Region of the Aleutian Islands, Alaska (approx 291 ESE of Attu Station, AK) on August 15, 2006 at 8:26AM EDT. The depth was 31.1 miles. No reports of damage or injuries received. (United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center)
Preliminary Damage Assessments
Public Assistance PDAs for two counties in Nebraska are scheduled to begin August 16, as a result of wildfires on July 27, 2006 and continuing. (FEMA HQ)
Wildfire Update
National Preparedness Level 5
Initial attack activity was moderate nationally with 233 new fires reported.
Ten new large fires were reported, two each in Florida, Idaho, and Wyoming, and one each in Montana, Nevada, and Oklahoma.
Five large fires were contained, one each in California, Oregon, South Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming.
Very high to extreme fire indices were reported in Arizona, Arkansas, California, Idaho, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Washington and Wyoming. (National Fire Information Center)
Significant Fires - Structures Threatened
Jackson Canyon Wildfire, Wyoming. (FEMA-2665-FM-WY): This 3,000 acre lightning-caused fire started on August 14, 2006 and is burning in timber six miles south of Casper, WY. A Type 1 IMT has been ordered. There are three hundred primary structures and a communication tower complex threatened. Casper Mountain Road is closed and evacuation orders are in effect. No structures have been destroyed. The fire is zero percent contained. There is no estimated date for full containment.
Gash Creek Fire, Montana: 5,300 acre fire six miles south of Victor, Montana. A Type 2 IMT is assigned. There are 15 primary structures, a trail system and watershed potentially threatened. No structures have been destroyed. The fire is 60 percent contained. There is no estimated date for full containment.
Big Creek Fire, Montana: 12,134 acre fire 29 miles southwest of Livingston, MT. There is one outbuilding potentially threatened. Nine primary structures and 12 outbuildings have been destroyed. The fire is 85 percent contained. There is no estimated date for full containment. (FEMA Region VIII, US Forest Service, National Interagency Fire Center, InciWeb - Wildland Fire and Incident Information Center, YubaNet Fire News).
Disaster Declaration Activity
FEMA-1658-DR-TX was declared on August 15, 2006 for flooding July 31, 2006 and continuing. The declaration provides for Individual and Public Assistance to El Paso County. El Paso County is also eligible to apply for assistance under the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program.
FEMA-1656-DR-OHIO, Amendment #2 - 3 counties added for Public Assistance (FEMA HQ)
Last Modified: Wednesday, 16-Aug-2006 08:06:59 EDT