National Situation Update: Monday, August 14, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Hazards for the Week

  • From August 14 - 17, extreme heat is expected across the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley .
  • From August 14 - 17, periods of heavy rain are expected over New Mexico and parts of western Texas .
  • Fire danger will be high in and around Oklahoma and northern Texas .
  • There is an ongoing risk for wildfires across the northern Rockies, Great Basin and northern High Plains.
  • Severe drought will persist across the central states; some relief is possible in the northern and central Plains.
  • Severe drought will persist across portions of the Southeast and Arizona , relief is expected over Arizona .

Significant National Weather

Midwest: Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast from the Great Lakes through the lower Midwest into parts of Kansas Monday. A few severe storms may erupt in the Ohio Valley. In contrast, high pressure and sunny, dry weather will dominate the northern Plains and western portions of the Upper Midwest.

South: Isolated showers and storms will dot the Southeast Monday. Additional storms and showers are forecast to string out from far western Texas and the Texas Panhandle eastward into Tennessee. The heaviest downpours, locally several inches, are likely in the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. Temperatures of 100 from the Rio Grand River to northeast Texas, elsewhere, most locations in the South will be seasonal. 

West: Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the West Monday should be confined to southeastern Arizona, New Mexico, parts of Colorado and southeastern Wyoming. Isolated cloudbursts will again douse portions of New Mexico.

Northeast: A dry day for most of the Northeast Monday, but temperatures will be climbing. A few late-day showers or storms are forecast in West Virginia and the far western parts of Pennsylvania and New York. A shower or two are also possible in northern Maine.  (NWS, Media Sources)

DHS Aviation Security Level Adjusts to Orange, TSA Refines Ban

Effective Sunday, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announced an adjustment in the aviation threat level from RED to ORANGE for flights from the United Kingdom to the United States . There will not be any operational changes for domestic flights in the United States . Thus, the U.S. threat level remains at ORANGE , or ‘High,' for all domestic and international flights.

The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) today announced it will permit small doses of liquid medications through the security checkpoint and onboard airplanes, a refinement from the original ban, which was implemented on August 10.

TSA will also now require all passengers to remove their shoes so they may be X-rayed with their carry-on bags to enhance efficiency in the screening process and eliminate confusion for travelers. Summary of the changes:

  • Small doses of liquid non-prescription medications (up to 4 oz.) permitted
  • Shoes removal required
  • Low blood sugar treatments including glucose gel for diabetics permitted
  • Clarifications include: aerosols prohibited, solid lipstick and baby food permitted.(FEMA HQ, TSA)

Drought Impacts are Higher in 2006

Drought has been unusually expansive for the nation as a whole, leading to a variety of impacts. More than 5.9 million acres have been scorched by wildfires so far this year, which is 70 percent more than the average for the same period during the previous 10 years, according to the National Interagency Coordination Center. In addition, the U.S. Department of Agriculture indicated that between 28 and 37 percent of the peanut, spring wheat, sorghum, and cotton crops were in poor or very poor condition nationally, compared to between 5 and 17 percent of the same crops at this time last year. Fully half of the nation's pastures and rangelands were in poor or very poor condition, a proportion exceeded only once since weekly growing season records were first gathered in May 1995.  (NOAA)

Tropical Activity

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea: A tropical wave accompanied by a weak area of low pressure is located in the vicinity of the Windward Islands.  This system has changed little over several days, and the reconnaissance mission for Saturday was canceled.  Although showers and thunderstorms are currently minimal, some development of this system is possible over the next day or two as it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

A broad non-tropical low pressure area is located several hundred miles east of the northeastern Florida coast.  Some slow development is possible over the next couple of days as the system remains nearly stationary. Elsewhere, tropical storm formation is not expected through Tuesday, August 14.

Eastern Pacific: The inter tropical convergence zone that has been under observation for the last few days remains fairly active well south of the Hawaiian islands, however, there are no areas of organized convection within this area that suggest tropical cyclone development. No tropical cyclones are expected through Tuesday morning.

Western Pacific: Tropical Storm (TS) 11w (Wukong) and Tropical Depression (TD) 12w, tracking toward the coast of Japan, are moving away from U.S. interests. Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Tuesday. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level – 5 (potential exists to exhaust all agency fire resources.)

Initial attack activity reported on Saturday August 13th was light nationally with 178 new fires reported. Nine new large fires were reported, two in the South Dakota, and one each in Arizona, California, Florida, Idaho, Oregon, Utah, and Wyoming.

Twelve large fires were contained, four in Idaho, three in Texas, two in Oregon, and one each in Arizona, Montana, and South Dakota.

Very high to extreme fire indices were reported in Arizona, California, Idaho, Minnesota, Montana, Nevada, North Dakota, Oregon, South Dakota, Utah, Washington and Wyoming.

Structures Threatened:

Bar Complex Fire: 13,809 acres at 30 percent contained. This complex consists of four fires which are located northwest of Weaverville , California . Residences and utility infrastructure remain threatened. A Type 1 IMT is assigned.

Uncles Complex Fire: 10,468 acres at 35 percent contained. This complex consists of the Uncles, Rush, and Hancock fires which is 18 miles northeast of Orleans , California . Numerous residences and other structures are threatened. A Type 2 IMT is assigned.

Ola Complex Fire: 15,200 acres at 10 percent contained. This complex is near Ola , Idaho . Structures have been threatened by the fires and a few are currently, but none have been lost. A Type 2 IMT is assigned.

Potato Fire: 15,798 acres at 30 percent contained. This fire is seven miles north of Stanley , Idaho . Historical sites, fisheries, transmission lines, mining resources and recreation sites remain threatened. Evacuation orders are in effect, and structure protection is in place. A Type 1 IMT is assigned.

South Fork Complex Fire: 7 , 281 acres at zero percent contained. The complex is located 13 miles east of McCall , Idaho . Structure protection is in place for Yellowpine. A Type 2 IMT is assigned.

Gash Creek Fire: 5,100 acres at 60 percent contained. This fire is six miles south of Victor , Montana . Residences and a watershed remain threatened. A Type 2 IMT is assigned.

Tripod Complex Fire : 83,148 acres at 40 percent contained. This complex, consisting of the Spur Peak and Tripod fires, is located seven miles northeast of Winthrup , Washington . Residences and structures are threatened. Two Type 1 IMT's are assigned. (National Interagency Fire Center , InciWeb - Wildland Fire and Incident Information Center , YubaNet Fire News).

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Monday, 14-Aug-2006 08:24:37 EDT