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National Situation Update: Sunday, August 13, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

West: Afternoon storms will rumble mainly over Colorado, New Mexico and eastern Arizona.  Localized flooding of normally dry washes and arroyos is the main threat from these slow-moving storms.
Severe drought blankets much of eastern Montana and Wyoming. On Sunday lingering morning showers should dampen eastern Montana.  The Northwest will remain dry, while isolated afternoon thundershowers dot the Sierra, Wasatch, and Great Basin, bringing the potential for fire starts due to lightning.

Midwest: Thunderstorms will rumble from eastern North Dakota and Minnesota to northeast Colorado and northwest Kansas. Some storms could produce large hail and strong wind gusts or an isolated tornado, while steady rain may trigger local flash flooding. Flood watches are already hoisted for parts of South Dakota.

Thunderstorms will reignite along the advancing cold front from Minnesota to Iowa, Nebraska and Kansas. Some of these storms will once again produce hail and high winds, potentially affecting such cities as Minneapolis-St. Paul, Omaha and Des Moines. Heavy rain could set up in northern Missouri and Kansas Sunday night.

The front will also usher in cooler air to the heat-weary Plains. While 90-degree heat will once again plague the central Plains Sunday, rain-cooled post-frontal 70s will be the rule in the Dakotas and northern Minnesota. Pleasant low-mid 80s will prevail over the Ohio Valley and much of the Great Lakes.

South: Thunderstorms erupt from central Florida to the central Gulf Coast relieving both the record heat and long-term drought which has affected central Florida.

Extreme or exceptional long-term drought covers much of Oklahoma into Texas to the Rio Grande River. Occasional afternoon thunderstorms are possible in the Southern Plains. A second, stronger frontal system will slide into the Southern Plains Monday, slowing down on Tuesday, helping this area with more drought-relieving rain.

Northeast: A large area of high pressure continues to pump cool and dry air down from Canada, causing temperatures to drop; frost advisories are posted from the Adirondacks of Upstate N.Y. to Oxford County in Maine for early Sunday.

Sixties and seventies will dominate much of New England. Seventies and eighties will be the rule over New York State and Pennsylvania. Even the typically hot Middle Atlantic States will remain in the middle eighties. (NWS, Media Sources)

Tropical Activity

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea: Three tropical waves continue to be monitored by the National Hurricane Center but don't show much potential for development. Tropical storm formation is not expected through Monday.

Eastern Pacific: An area of isolated thunderstorms is centered about 950 miles east southeast of Hilo and Hawaii, and remains fairly active far south through southwest of the Hawaiian Islands. These areas of thunderstorms remain poorly organized and tropical cyclone development is not expected. Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Monday afternoon.

Western Pacific: The area of convection previously identified by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is now Tropical Depression (TD) 11W, located approximately 86 miles south of Iwo Jima This depression is moving NNW and will not affect U.S. interests. Elsewhere, no there are no other suspect areas.(USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level – 5 (on a scale of 1 to 5 with 5 being defined as: Several Geographic Areas are experiencing major incidents which have the potential to exhaust all agency fire resources. When 500 crews are committed nationally, Canadian Liaison and a coordinator for military mobilization are asked to participate in national planning.)

Initial attack activity was moderate nationally with 297 new fires reported. Eleven new large fires were reported, seven in Idaho , two in Montana , and one each in Nevada and Texas .

Fourteen large fires were contained, four in Montana, three in Idaho, two in Texas, and one each in Oklahoma, Oregon, South Dakota, Utah, and Washington.

Very high to extreme fire indices were reported on Saturday, August 12 th in Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Idaho, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Washington and Wyoming.

Update on the Verdi Fire: 5,841 acres at 70 percent contained as of Saturday night. This fire is located five miles west of Reno , Nevada . The threat to residences along the south flank of the fire has been greatly reduced due to diminishing winds and work by bulldozers and hand-crews to secure a line to the north of residences. No evacuations have been ordered or are anticipated at this time.

Structures Threatened/Evacuations:

• Potato Fire: 13,712 acres at 30 percent contained. This fire is seven miles north of Stanley , Idaho . Historical sites, fisheries, transmission lines, mining resources and recreation sites remain threatened. Evacuation orders are in effect, and structure protection is in place.
• Ola Complex Fire: 4,000 acres at 10 percent contained. This complex is near Ola , Idaho . Residences are threatened.
• Rabbit Fire: 6,000 acres at an unknown percent contained. The fire is thirty five miles south of Boise , Idaho . Structures are threatened.
• Dovetail Fire: 4,700 acres at zero percent contained. This fire started on Bureau of Land Management land 25 miles northeast of Winnett , Montana , and consists of the previously reported Twinkie and Smokey fires. Residences, grazing allotments and historical structures are threatened. A subdivision was evacuated .
• Tripod Fire: near Winthrop , Washington has now affected 81,770 acres and is 20% contained, with 1,920 fire fighters, 11 helos, 51 crews and 67 fire engines committed. Numerous residential structures remain threatened.(National Interagency Fire Center , InciWeb - Wildland Fire and Incident Information Center , YubaNet Fire News ).

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)