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National Situation Update: Saturday, August 12, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Forecast

West: Monsoon moisture will continue to flow into the Southwest this weekend. Temperatures across the Southwest will remain somewhat below average through the upcoming week due to the extra moisture. Highs will reach to between 100 and 110 in the Desert Southwest.

Midwest: A cold front will produce severe thunderstorms from eastern Montana to Minnesota. Highs will range from the 80s in North Dakota to 100 in Kansas.

South: The stationary front across the South will produce showers and thunderstorms in a broad swath from Louisiana to Virginia. High temperatures west of the Mississippi River will reach 100 degrees over parts of southern Oklahoma and the Rio Grande Valley of Texas.

Northeast: Under a Canadian high pressure area, cooling temperatures will be the primary weather factor for the region. Morning lows will be in the 30s from northern Pennsylvania to Maine and 50s down through the Chesapeake Bay area. A frost advisory is in effect for parts of northern New York along with parts of northern New Hampshire and western Maine. Daytime highs will range from the 60s in northern Maine to the 70s and 80s in the Mid-Atlantic. (NWS, Media Sources)

El Niño In This Winter's Forecast?

Weak El Niño conditions may appear by year's end, but if it does, it will happen too late to have an impact on the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season.

According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, the U.S. government agency tasked with monitoring, assessing and predicting the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, cycle (El Niño and La Niña), current global atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns are consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions in the tropical Pacific. These patterns are expected to continue for the next one to three months. However, Vernon Kousky, NOAA's lead ENSO scientist for more than 20 years, says, "Based on recent trends there is a 50 percent chance that weak El Niño conditions will develop late this year and continue through early 2007."

If weak El Niño conditions develop, the U.S. should expect wetter-than-average conditions over portions of the Gulf Coast and southeastern states, and warmer-than-average conditions over the West, northern Great Plains and upper Midwest during January-March 2007.

NOAA will continue to monitor the conditions in the tropical Pacific and issue the nation's official forecasts in weekly and monthly updates. El Niño and La Niña are climate features that have a direct effect on weather patterns over the U.S. and the world. (Excerpt from http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2679.htm )

Verdi Wildland Fire

The VERDI FIRE, in Reno, Washoe County, Nevada is a very intense 2000 plus acre fire and only ten percent contained on Federal, State and private lands.  There are 800 residence threatened in 3 subdivisions, 10 commercial buildings and 400 out buildings. Other areas threatened are an underground high pressure petroleum pipeline, electrical transmission lines and a communications site facility.  There is a natural barrier of the Truckee River and Interstate 80 remains open.   Fire aircraft were conflicting with airport approach and departure routes and smoke is hampering the safety of commercial flights.
 
Type II ICT was ordered and will be in place tomorrow. California resources are en route to supplement night and day shifts.  The fire is currently under unified command between Reno Fire (county) and the US Forest Service.  Other cooperating agencies on site are Bureau of Land Management, Lake Tahoe Fire Chiefs, Reno Police Dept, Washoe County Sheriff's Dept, Sierra Pacific and the Kinder-Morgan Pipeline.  The committed resources are 24 engines, 5 dozers, 20 overhead, 4 water tankers, 2 helos, 4 air tankers, 2 single engines and a type 2 team.
 
The State of Nevada requested a Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG 2650 ) # 2664 was approved on Saturday morning at 12/0037 EDT Aug 06.   FEMA Region IX will continue to monitor this wildfire activity. (FEMA Region IX)

Tropical Activity

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea: Three tropical waves are being monitored by the National Hurricane Center but don't show much potential for development.

Eastern Pacific: Two tropical waves are being monitored by the National Hurricane Center but don't show much potential for development.

Western Pacific: Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA): An area of convection approximately 445 miles north-northwest of Guam, has persisted over the past 12 hours. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 24-29 mph. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be 1002 mb. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is good. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No significant activity in the U.S. or its territories during the last 24 hours.

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level - 5 (on a scale of 1 to 5 with 5 being defined as: Several Geographic Areas are experiencing major incidents which have the potential to exhaust all agency fire resources. When 500 crews are committed nationally, Canadian Liaison and a coordinator for military mobilization are asked to participate in national planning.)

Yesterday, August 11th, 2006: Fire activity was moderate nationally with 284 new fires reported. Fourteen new large fires were reported: one each in Arizona and California; two each in Texas and Wyoming; and four each in Oregon and Montana.

Thirteen large fires were contained: one each in Arizona, Oklahoma, and Washington; two each in Idaho, Nevada, and Montana; and four in Texas.

Two Modular Airborne Fire Fighting System (MAFFS) C-130 aircraft and support personnel from the 153rd Airlift Wing Air National Guard (ANG), Cheyenne, Wyoming are deployed to Klamath Falls, Oregon.

Two MAFFS C-130 aircraft and support personnel from the 146th Airlift Wing ANG, Channel Islands, and California are deployed to Boise, Idaho.

Very high to extreme fire indices are reported in Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Idaho, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Washington and Wyoming.(National Interagency Fire Center).

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)