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National Situation Update: Friday, August 11, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Forecast

West: The Southwest Monsoon will produce scattered thunderstorms over parts of Arizona and New Mexico. The precipitation may spread as far east as El Paso TX. The Southwest or Mexican Monsoon is a regional-scale circulation that develops over southwest North America during the months of July through September. It is associated with a dramatic increase in rainfall that occurs over what is normally an arid region of North America. A frontal system may trigger thunderstorms over parts of eastern Montana. The Desert Southwest will remain hot with highs over 100 degrees. The Central Valley of California will be hot with highs reaching the 90s in Sacramento and around 100 degrees in the Fresno area.

Midwest: The cold front moving slowly southward will produce thunderstorms across the lower Midwest. North of the front there will only be a few isolated thunderstorms. Highs will be in the 70s from the northern Mississippi Valley to Michigan and northern Ohio with 80s in Kentucky. The Plains will remain hot with highs mainly in the 90s and even some 100s across Oklahoma.

South: The advancing cold front will produce thunderstorms with locally heavy rain from the Mississippi Valley to the Carolinas. High temperatures from the Carolinas through Georgia will cool significantly this weekend. West of the Mississippi River temperatures will remain hot with highs in the 90s and even some 100s continuing.

Northeast: Mild and dry conditions will continue through the weekend. High temperatures will be somewhat below average through Sunday with highs ranging from the 60s in New England to lower 80s in the Mid-Atlantic. Expect lows in the 40s and even a few 30s over parts of northern New York and northern New England by tomorrow morning. (NWS, Media Sources)

Tropical Activity

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea: Three tropical waves are being monitored by the National Hurricane Center but don't show much potential for development.

Eastern Pacific: No significant activity.

Western Pacific: Both Typhoon 08W (Saomai), and Tropical Depression 10W (Bopha) have dissipated. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is monitoring an area of convection 185 miles north of Saipan. The potential for development of a significant tropical cyclone is fair. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level - 5 (on a scale of 1 to 5 with 5 being defined as: Several Geographic Areas are experiencing major incidents which have the potential to exhaust all agency fire resources. When 500 crews are committed nationally, Canadian Liaison and a coordinator for military mobilization are asked to participate in national planning.)

Yesterday, August 10, 2006: Initial attack activity was heavy throughout the nation with 367 new fires reported. Fourteen new large fires were reported: one each in South Dakota, Nevada, Oregon, and Wyoming; two in Texas; and four each in Idaho and Montana. Thirteen large fires were contained: one each in South Dakota, Nebraska, and Montana; and two each in Texas, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, and Wyoming.

Two Modular Airborne Fire Fighting System (MAFFS) C-130 aircraft and support personnel from the 153rd Airlift Wing Air National Guard (ANG), Cheyenne, Wyoming are deployed to Klamath Falls, Oregon.

Two MAFFS C-130 aircraft and support personnel from the 146th Airlift Wing ANG, Channel Islands, California are deployed to Boise, Idaho.( National Interagency Fire Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)