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National Situation Update: Tuesday, August 8, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

Northeast: Northeast temperatures will drop and humidity levels will come down significantly behind a cold front, setting the stage for thunderstorms to roll through the region. Damaging wind gusts and hail will be a concern. Highs should range from the upper 60s in the mountains of western Maine to the 90s in southeast Virginia.

Midwest: A stalled front will trigger some thunderstorms from Missouri eastward through the Ohio Valley. The Plains will remain hot through the week. Highs will range from the 70s around the Great Lakes and in Iowa to just over 100 in far western North Dakota.

South: Scattered showers and thunderstorms will dot Tennessee and much of the Southeast and Gulf Coast tomorrow as a hot, sticky air mass holds its ground. High temperatures in the 90s will be widespread with a few 100-degree temps likely in parts of Arkansas and Oklahoma. Look for some humid upper 80s in south Florida, western North Carolina, northeastern Tennessee and southwestern Texas.

West: The summer monsoon will continue to push moisture up through eastern Arizona, New Mexico, and Wyoming. The result will be more scattered thunderstorms, and the possibility of hail. Interior sections of Washington and Oregon may see a few thunderstorms as well. Lightning strikes from these storms may increase the threat for more fires. While temperatures will be moderate for the Colorado Rockies, northwest Washington and along the Pacific beaches, much of Montana and the Desert Southwest will remain hot, and the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts and eastern Montana will reach 100 degrees or more. Temperatures will also be quite warm around the Los Angeles Basin. (NWS, Media Sources)

U.S. Has Its Second-Hottest July on Record; Drought Conditions Worsen

The continental United States suffered through its second-hottest July on record because of a blistering heat wave from California to Washington, D.C. The heat wave broke more than 2,300 daily temperature records for the month and eclipsed more than 50 records for the highest temperatures in any July, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. 
The hottest July on record occurred in 1936, and the third hottest was 1934. The agency also reported that the first seven months of 2006 was the warmest January-July of any year the United States since records began in 1895.  The scorching temperatures, combined with a shortage of rainfall, expanded moderate-to-extreme drought conditions in areas already hard hit. (Media sources)

Tropical Activity

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea: In the Atlantic, what is left of Chris is moving through the Gulf of Mexico. Regeneration is unlikely due to the hostile upper-level winds the system will be facing over the next two days.

Little change in the organization of the disturbance centered about 1,150 miles east of the Windward Islands. "Marginally favorable" for a Tropical Depression in next day or two.

A tropical wave interacting with an upper-level low is producing showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos. Upper-level winds are unfavorable for any significant development of this system as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.

Elsewhere, tropical storm formation is not expected through Wednesday, August 9.

Eastern Pacific: Tropical storm formation is not expected through Wednesday, August 9.

Western Pacific: There are three storms in the Western Pacific (Saomai, Maria and Bopha); none have the potential to impact Region IX jurisdictions.  (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, FEMA Region IX.)

Earthquake Activity

The West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (TWC) issued an "Information Bulletin" in response to a 7.0 magnitude earthquake near the south Pacific island jurisdiction of Vanuatu. Based on the 93 mile depth of the earthquake a tsunami is not expected along any U.S. coasts or Pacific Islands of U.S. interest.(FEMA Region IX, United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, NOAA/NWS/West Coast-Alaska Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

Individual Assistance and Public Assistance PDAs for the El Paso area were scheduled to begin on August 6, 2006.(FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

NATIONAL PREPAREDNESS LEVEL - 5

Fire activity remains light nationally with 181 new fires reported. Three new large fires were reported, one each in California, Idaho and Utah. Eight large fires were contained, three in Montana, two in Idaho, and one each in California, Texas, and Wyoming.

Very high to extreme fire indices were reported in Arkansas, Arizona, California, Idaho, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Dakota, Texas, Washington and Wyoming.

Critical fire weather areas have been designated by NWS Storm Prediction Center Tuesday for parts of Oregon, Washington, Montana, Idaho, Nevada, North and South Dakota. There are 34 active large fires reported as of Monday, August 7th. The acre of involvement from all active fires is 397,232.

• Orleans Complex: 6,000-acre in Humboldt and Siskiyou counties.  The fire is currently listed at 10 percent contained with 152 homes, 17 businesses and 135 other structures reported threatened.
  
• Cottonwood: 1,558 acres at an unknown percent contained. This fire is 15 miles south of Weldon. Residences are threatened.
  
• Uncles Complex: 10,000 acres at 20 percent contained. 18 miles northeast of Orleans. Residences and outbuildings remain threatened, and structure protection is in place.
  
• Bar Complex: 10,449 acres at 10 percent contained. Located northwest of Weaverville. Residences, outbuildings, power lines, municipal watersheds and wildlife habitat remain threatened.
  

Threatened Structures in Washington:

• Tripod Complex: 57,535 acres at 10 percent contained. Located seven miles northeast of Winthrup. Residences and structures are threatened.
  Threatened Structures in Wyoming
  
• Little Canyon Creek: 2,500 acres at 20 percent contained. The fire is located 22 miles south of Ten Sleep. Cabins and residences are threatened. (FEMA Region X, National Interagency Fire Center, InciWeb/Incident Fire Information System).
  

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)