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National Situation Update: Sunday, August 6, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

Midwest:
Thunderstorms with damaging winds, hail and possibly an isolated tornado will continue to propagate eastward from a northwest Minnesota to northwest Kansas line. Scattered thunderstorms from Ohio to northern Missouri may produce a brief burst of strong winds and hail.

South:
Sunday afternoon thunderstorms are forecast for parts of the Carolinas, Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama and Florida Sunday, a more concentrated area of thunderstorms could soak parts of the Louisiana and Upper Texas Gulf Coast. Heavy rain on Sunday is possible in southern Louisiana and southeast Texas, potentially including the Houston-Galveston metro area.

West:
Thunderstorms are forecasted Sunday afternoon and evening in the Southwest. Thunderstorms overnight Saturday could produce torrential rainfall on the order of an inch or two in a short period of time. Flooding of rivers, streams, washes, and arroyos are possible. This includes the flood-weary city of El Paso, Texas. Almost 7 inches of rain has been measured at the El Paso airport since July 26. Heavy rain-producing Sunday afternoon thunderstorms are possible from New Mexico to Colorado.

Northeast:
Temperatures cooled about 10 degrees from the oppressive readings earlier this week, but the humidity has been markedly lower, thanks to a cool front which swept as far south as the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Thunderstorms from New England to Virginia return on Monday.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:
For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico a broad area of low pressure, associated with the remnants of former Tropical Depression Chris is producing showers and thunderstorms that extend from central Cuba northward to southern Florida. This activity should spread across the Florida Keys and western Cuba Sunday as the system moves westward around 15 mph.  Some potential exists for slow development once the system moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico over the next couple of days.

A broad area of disturbed weather is located about 600 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.  While this system has changed little in organization Saturday evening, some slow development is possible over the next couple of days as it moves slowly westward.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through Monday.

Eastern Pacific:
No significant tropical cyclones are expected through Sunday.

Western Pacific:
By 2000 EDT, tropical storm warnings for Guam, Titian, Rota and Saipan were canceled. The storm moved quickly through the Marianas Saturday night and early this morning. The heaviest rain fell on Guam and Rota, which were closest to the track of this system.

As Saomai was passing through the Rota channel southeast winds gusted to 55 mph at the Rota airport. Winds were weaker on Guam as the rapid motion of this system toward the northwest reduced winds to the southwest of the center. A 38 mph wind gust from the northwest was measured at Andersen AFB at 1512 EDT, and a 37 mph wind gust from the northwest was measured at the Guam International Airport at 1449 EDT.

Highest rain total for the storm was recorded at 4.47 inches in Guam.

At 1600 EDT, Tropical Storm Saomai was located near 12.1 north 146.7 east, approximately 155 miles southeast of Guam, and has tracked northwestward at 13 mph over the past six hours. Maximum sustained winds were estimated at 40 mph gusting to 51 mph. Surf will be hazardous at 9 to 12 feet Sunday, and continue at hazardous levels Monday and Tuesday. Less than an inch of additional rain is expected today.

 As of 2000 EDT, August 5, 2006, Governor Felix P. Camacho declared Guam in Condition of Readiness (C.O.R.) 4 after the National Weather Service lifted the Tropical Storm Warning for Guam. COR 4 is the "all clear" signal declaring that weather conditions have returned to normal.

The Guam Office of Homeland Security and Office of Civil Defense advises that the Emergency Operations Center will remain open as crews continue to respond to calls for debris removal and isolated flooding throughout the island.

Elsewhere, tropical storm Maria, located north of Saomai, is not expected to impact U.S. interests. Other storm formations are not expected through Sunday, August 6. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Guam Homeland Security Office of Civil Defense)

El Paso Rains Continue

New rainfall on Friday night caused new flooding. Emergency workers evacuated central El Paso residents after the Pershing Dam ponding area on Ft. Bliss overflowed. Some homes in the area of the dam had as much as three feet of standing water. The Spaghetti Bowl area of El Paso continued to struggle with flood waters with around 300 residents evacuated. Response crews worked throughout Saturday to assist flooded residents and reduce the possibility of more flooding.

A drying trend will begin Sunday, but we will continue to see a chance for thunderstorms, so the flooding threat will continue through at least Sunday evening. As we move into the first part of next week the drying trend will continue but there will continue to be a slight chance for thunderstorms most of the days next week. (NICC, NWS)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report.  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

There was no significant earthquake activity over the last 24 hours.  (United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, NOAA/NWS/West Coast-Alaska Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

Individual and Public Assistance PDAs for the El Paso area are scheduled to begin Sunday August 6, 2006. (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

NATIONAL PREPAREDNESS LEVEL - 5
Current Situation:
Fire activity was light throughout the nation with 124 new fires reported. Thirteen new, large fires were reported: one each in Louisiana, California, Alabama, Texas, and Montana; two in Idaho; and six in South Dakota.
Six large fires were contained: five in South Dakota and one in Oklahoma

Weather Discussion:
A low pressure will remain off the California coast while another weather disturbance moves across the northern Plains. Thunderstorms will develop across the western states with dry storms possible across the northwest quarter of the country. Strong winds and dry conditions are predicted to move over eastern Montana and the Dakotas and gusty winds will continue over the southern Plains.

Red Flag Warning:
 In effect for strong winds and low humidity in eastern Montana and southwestern North Dakota.  (FEMA Region X)

Disaster Declaration Activity

The Joint Field Office (JFO) for FEMA 1654-DR-DE Delaware will close on August 22, 2006. (FEMA HQ)