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National Situation Update: Wednesday, August 2, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Forecast

Northeast:  Another day of dangerous heat will prevail across much of the Northeast today. Many areas will move into the 90s but some areas from Southern New England to the Middle Atlantic region will see highs at or above 100 degrees.  Very high humidity levels will make it feel like 110 degrees or more.  Only far northern New England and northern New York are likely to enjoy somewhat cooler conditions as a cold front slides slowly southward. That front will trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms, a few of which could be severe. Some strong storms may wander down into southern New England later in the day.

Midwest:  Severe thunderstorms, and possibly a tornado, may occur around the Minnesota/Iowa border area. Flood watches are in effect from northwest Iowa to northwest Wisconsin, including the Twin Cities metro area. Three to five inches of rain may accumulate in some locales. Today will feature more thunderstorms along the front from northern Michigan to the plains of Nebraska and Kansas. A few of the storms could turn severe. High temperatures are expected to range from the 60s in parts of far northern Wisconsin and the U. P. of Michigan to the 90s in the lower Midwest and southeastern Kansas.

South:  Much of the South will remain hot and humid for some time to come. A few areas will see thunderstorms to cool things off a bit but many areas of the South are in a drought and no significant relief is in the cards for the near future. High temperatures will be mainly in the 90s across the region, with some 100 across parts of Texas.  Residents of southern Florida should keep a close eye on Tropical Storm Chris as it enters the Caribbean.

West:  More rain is expected across parts of New Mexico and extending into the El Paso, Texas area where severe flooding occurred yesterday. Thunderstorms will be scattered through the northern and central Rockies, along with the Great Basin. Highs are forecast to range from the 60s in the higher Rockies and along the Washington coast to 100 or more in the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts.  (NWS, Media Sources)

Heat Wave Hits Eastern Half of Nation

Blistering heat settled over the eastern half of the nation yesterday, sending man and beast in desperate search of relief: An air-conditioned subway car in New York City. A plunge into the Atlantic Ocean in New Jersey. And cold showers for suffering livestock in Ohio.
The same heat wave that was blamed for as many as 164 deaths in California brought a fifth straight day of oppressive weather to Chicago and promised at least three days of brow-mopping temperatures in the New York metropolitan area.  By midafternoon, the temperature in Chicago was 100, Baltimore reached 99 and Washington hit 97, though the humidity made it feel like 107. In New York, it was 95 in Central Park and 100 at LaGuardia Airport in Queens.

The National Weather Service said the mercury could reach 104 today, and tomorrow could be bad, too. Boston reached 93, and in Philadelphia the temperature was 97, with a heat index of 110. Atlanta sweltered at 95.  In Washington, the city's transit agency distributed bottles of water to thousands of commuters at three rail stations with limited escalator service.

With a disastrous 10-day power outage in Queens still fresh in memory, New York City adopted energy conservation measures. Thermostats in city offices were set at 78, up from the usual 72, and large municipal installations such as the Rikers Island jail used backup generators.

The New York skyline will reflect the cutbacks, with lights turned down on the Empire State Building and the Chrysler Building. The giant Pepsi-Cola sign on the Brooklyn waterfront was to be dimmed, as were the lights illuminating the George Washington Bridge, the Brooklyn Bridge and other spans.

Utilities in New York and Pennsylvania set records Tuesday for peak electricity demand. A spokesperson for the agency that oversees electricity usage in six New England states, said demand could surpass the one-day record set just two weeks ago. Demand was just shy of the record yesterday. Ohio farmers used fans and cold showers to keep their cattle cool. Even with those efforts, the animals produced about 10 pounds less milk per day because of the heat, said farmer Clark Emmons of Fayette, Ohio.

In Richmond, Va., sheriff's deputies bought 200 pounds of ice to offer some relief to jail inmates and used industrial exhaust fans to suck hot air out of their cells.
In New Jersey, soaring temperatures were suspected in a huge fish kill at a Piscataway lake, and beachgoers were on the sand and in the water before most people had arrived at work.   (Media Sources)

FEMA Regional Activity

Illinois Severe Storms
As of Aug 1, 2006
There are state Declarations of Emergency in effect in Madison, St. Clair, Clinton  Jefferson and Washington Counties as a result of severe storms and resulting power outages occurring over the course of July 19-21, 2006.  The Unified Area Command is now at the IDOT Regional office in Collinsville.  IDOT and crews from the Dept. of Corrections continue to service the affected areas with debris removal.  The State has requested a joint damage assessment to look at Infrastructure.  Joint Fed/State damage assessment begins today, August 2, 2006.  (FEMA Region V)

Carbon Monoxide Fumes in Columbia County, Florida
On August 1, 2006, 11:00 a.m. EDT, notification was received from the State of Florida, Warning Point, through MERS MOC (Thomasville) that a carbon monoxide incident occurred in Columbia County at approximately 10:30 a.m. this morning.  The incident was at Highway 90 West in Lake City, Florida, where construction was in progress for a J.C. Penney store.  The incident caused 21 injuries with 1 being transported to a medical facility.  The building involved was evacuated. 
State DEM is monitoring, and fire department and rescue is on the scene.
There is no request for Federal assistance.  (FEMA Region IV)

MT Wildfires
RED EAGLE:  This 22,200 acre fire of unknown cause started on July 28, 2006, and is burning in spruce and fir, one mile southwest of St. Mary, MT.  A Type 2 IMT is assigned.  A Type 1 IMT will assume command on August 01.  There are 87 primary and 90 commercial structures and 39 outbuildings potentially threatened.  Areas potentially threatened include the Glacier National Park Visitor Center, park residences and the community of St. Mary.  No structures have been destroyed.  Evacuations remain in place for St. Mary.  The Cut Bank Campground in the park is closed.  The Going to the Sun Road in the park is closed east of the Rising Sun Campground to St. Mary.  US Highway 89 remains closed north and south of St. Mary.  Fire behavior consisting of single tree torching and short crown fire runs was observed. The fire is ten percent contained.  There is no estimated date for full containment.

BIG CREEK:  This 12,000 acre fire of unknown cause started on July 29, 2006, and is burning in timber, grass and sagebrush, 29 miles southwest of Livingston, MT.  A Type 2 IMT is assigned.  There are 50 primary structures and 150 outbuildings potentially threatened.  Three primary structures and six outbuildings have been destroyed.  Cooler conditions moderated fire behavior.  The fire is zero percent contained with an estimated date for full containment of August 12.

GASH CREEK:  This 2,100 acre fire of unknown cause started on July 24, 2006, and is burning in timber, six miles south of Victor, MT.  A Type 2 IMT is assigned.  There are 90 primary structures potentially threatened.  No structures have been destroyed.  Three homes remain evacuated.  Steep terrain and difficult access are hampering containment efforts.  Short sustained crown fire with spotting fire behavior was observed.  The fire is 35 percent contained.  There is no estimated date for full containment.

SOUTH PINE:  This 788 acre lightning caused fire started on July 17, 2006, and is burning in timber, 13 miles south of Livingston, MT.  A Type 2 IMT is assigned.  No structures are threatened.  No structures have been destroyed.  Extremely steep, rugged terrain continues to hamper containment efforts.  Isolated torching fire behavior was observed.  The fire is 40 percent contained.  There is no estimated date for full containment.

There are no requests for federal assistance at this time.

SD Wildfires
LIGHTNING COMPLEX:  This 11,000 acre lightning-caused fire started on July 28, 2006, and is burning in grass, eight miles west of Little Eagle, SD.  Residential areas and cultural and historical resources are potentially threatened.  No structures have been destroyed.  The fire is 20 percent contained with an estimated date for full containment of August 04.  No new information was reported.
There is no request for federal assistance at this time.  (FEMA Region VIII)

Nebraska Wildfires
Chadron (Dawes County) and Harrison (Sioux County), Nebraska
During the late evening of July 27, and early June 28 fires started and burned up to the city limits of Chadron (Dawes County), Nebraska. There were 2,447 homes threatened, with a population of 5,588. The evacuation order was rescinded early morning on July 29th. Fires doubled in size with an estimated 40,000 acres burned. With the increase in the fire areas, the State Park and several housing areas, Whispering Pines, Berryville and Parkview Terrace were evacuated in the Chadron area. Fire containment on July 29 was approximately 5%.  Population estimated to be 1,200-1,500 in the affected areas.  Approximately 50% of the burned land is part of the Pine Ridge National Recreation Area. 

Three homes were destroyed in a subdivision of Chadron and three or four suffered damage.  The fires missed Ft. Robinson and Chadron State College; however, the town of Chadron and the cities of Harrison, Crawford and Thayer in Sioux County are were at risk.

August 1, 2006, The USFS reports Sioux County has updated numbers of approximately 31,000 acres burning out of control with 25% containment.  Dawes County has 26,300 acres burning out of control with 60% containment.

The State EOC was activated and remains activated as of August 2.  State resources committed are: 11 fire departments involved with 10 water tankers, 2 state airplanes and 12 troopers, two National Guard helicopters and 40 soldiers.  Heavy equipment (dozers) has been provided to contain the fires. 

Federal/state/local officials have established a Joint Command in Chadron along with a Joint Public Information Center.  The USFS Area Coordinator is part of the Joint Command in Chadron.  The American Red Cross established (2) shelters and the Salvation Army has established (2) feeding stations.  Governor Heineman, the Asst. Director of Nebraska Emergency Management Agency, and the Mayor of Chadron conducted a flyover of the damaged area.  Approximately 50 fire departments and 500-600 federal/state firefighters are currently supporting fire suppression activities. Temperatures in the area exceed 100 degrees with the winds gusting between 20-25 mph and fueling the fires.  Firefighting efforts were stopped in the Sioux County area as the fires are moving too fast to protect the firefighters.  A firebreak is being constructed to protect the City of Thayer in Sioux County (pop. 300).

July 31, 2006, NEMA is searching for additional helicopters through EMAC resources. An additional 50 Nebraska National Guardsmen have been deployed. The Nebraska Department of Roads has closed US Highway 20 from the Wyoming border to Harrison (Sioux County). US Highway 385 is closed for 13 miles south of Chadron (Dawes County). State Highway 29 is closed from Harrison to Mitchell (at I-80).
All state highways and other major roads (US 20 and US 385) were opened on August 1.
As of August 1, there were 184 National Guard troops on the ground fighting both fire complexes.  Nebraska Emergency Management Agency is querying other States and EMAC for helicopter support. 
The FEMA Fire Management Grant Specialist deployed to the Nebraska State EOC July 29 - August 1, 2006. The Regional Response Coordination Center was activated to a Level III to provide reach back capability and to remain in contact with the Nebraska State Emergency Management Agency.    (FEMA Region VII)

Tropical Storm Chris # 1 (Spot Report)
August 1, 2006, 5:00 pm EDT
Puerto Rico State Emergency Management Agency (PRSEMA) is monitoring the weather situation; they have activated all zones making sure all local resources are available.  PRSEMA and the PR Port Authority are coordinating with the municipalities of Viequez and Culebra any transportation that may be needed to evacuate the tourists from the islands if needed.   Based on the latest weather forecast the PRSEMA Director will be recommending to the Governor the cancellation of work for all non-essential State employees and agencies.  PRSEMA will fully activate the state EOC at 7:00 am tomorrow morning.

DHS/FEMA Region II Caribbean Division Office (CDO) is monitoring the weather situation. The CDO office has FEMA staff at PRSEMA as liaisons.  The ERT-A team from PR has been activated. At this time the CDO has not activated any federal ESF's. The Caribbean Division Office Director has been in contact with all ESFs.  FEMA CDO will stage two liaisons at the EOC.  USCG has been briefed on current situation and the latest federal strategies. USCG liaison has been invited to relocate to the CDO and PRSEMA starting tomorrow morning.

Infrastructure: Has been in contact with the PR and VI GAR. They are ready and prepared for PDA's with 10 teams for PR. 

Mitigation: Staff is available to assist with PDAs or response operations.

Individual Assistance: IA and PDA information and equipment ready. Human Services has a staff of available and ready for PDA. They have 2 IA trunks in Maunabo ready to be dispatched to VI as needed.

Logistics: Has a list of 20 potential sites for JFO, they area all located in the metropolitan area. A list of potential sites for USVI is pending from GSA.  The generators (2) at the CDO facility are full mission capable. There are also 171 generator stored at the Maunabo warehouse.  Emergency ice contract is in place, local vendors have 600,000 pounds available. Contracts for distribution will be procured through ESF-1.   The FEMA warehouse in Maunabo has plastic sheeting, tarps, generators, water bladders, reefer trucks, emergency meals, tents, blankets, cots, chairs, tables, water and 2 Reverse Osmosis Water Purification Units (ROWPU).

Voluntary Agencies: Voluntary agencies have been alerted. An up-dated voluntary agency list, and identified staff would be available for PDA's.

IT: Two disc packs containing laptops, satellite and cell phones should be arriving tomorrow afternoon.

Human Resources: The CDO has no need to deploy any staff for PR at this time; the only deployments have been for VI.   (FEMA Region II, PRSEMA)

El Paso County, TX Flooding
Beginning Saturday, July 29 through Tuesday,  August 1, 2006
Continual rainfall over the last three days is causing flooding within El Paso County.  A slow moving Pacific weather system has dumped five inches of rain in the El Paso area of West Texas.  An additional one-inch is forecasted from this evening until midnight and is expected to taper off later.  Heavy rains may redevelop during the afternoon hours on Wednesday. 
Evacuations have been requested for areas to include the City of Venton and the City of Socorro.  Local chapters of the Salvation Army and American Red Cross are opening shelters as needed.  Numerous roads are closed due to fast moving and high water.

TX Military Forces, TX Department of Transportation, TX Parks and Wildlife Department, American Red Cross, Salvation Army. The TX Governor's Division of Emergency Management is monitoring the situation and will issue additional reports as necessary. 

The Texas SOC is at Level I (Emergency Conditions) to support border and security operations.  FEMA Region VI is monitoring the situation. 

There are a reported 1500 people in shelters in the El Paso Area.

Sand bags are requested because of an expected levee breach.  Levee height is 7.5 feet and water level is currently at 7.1 feet.  More rain is expected in the area.  If the water tops the levee many more people will be affected.  (FEMA Region VI)

National Electrical Power Status during Extreme Heat Period of July/August 2006

Record or near-record heat is forecast for most of the Eastern United States on August 1st and 2nd.  Temperature highs in the 90s will be widespread with maximums reaching or exceeding the century mark from southern New England through eastern Virginia.  In New York, the state's severe weather emergency command center was activated.  The command center mission is to work with local governments and utilities to make sure appropriate steps are taken to keep the electricity flowing across the state.  Grid operators are not expecting significant problems meeting power load demands.  Electric utility companies are expecting record power load demands.

Generation and Transmission status: 
The heat is affecting some electric facilities.  A number of small generating unit outages and equipment de-ratings due to the heat have forced some electric grid operators to declare Energy Emergency Alerts.  As of 15:00 EDT on August 1st, there are no declared Level 3 Alerts.  A breakdown of status by area and the Energy Emergency Alert Levels are presented below:

Northeast:  ISO-NE expects to be able to serve all loads today and tomorrow, but has issued a Level 1 Alert.  Last year's record peak load was 26,885 MW.  Today's forecast of 27,395 MW would break that record and Wednesday's forecast of 28,030 would also set a new record.

Mid-Atlantic:  PJM and the NYISO are both forecasting record loads for today.  PJM has declared a Level 1 Energy Emergency Alert and has requested the public to conserve electricity today.  Consolidated Edison has also requested conservation by its customers in New York City.

Mid-west:  MISO has declared a Level 2 Alert. 

West:  Temperatures have moderated and electricity supplies are expected to be adequate all week.

Southeast:  While temperatures are expected to be high this week, the region should have adequate generation.  TVA declared a Level 1 Alert and interrupted service to some non-firm customers on Monday following the tripping of the Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant.  While Watts Bar remains off line Monday the Alert status was cancelled but reinstated on Tuesday at Level 1.  Duke Power has also declared Level 1 Alert.

Southwest:  While loads are expected to be high today, they are forecast to remain below record levels.  Westar Energy, serving Eastern Kansas, has cancelled the Alert it declared yesterday.

Electrical Power Distribution: 
Distribution is primarily the delivery of electrical power from substations to customers.  There has not been any new significant distribution outage (greater than 50,000 customers) at the time of this report. Distribution outages will typically be the result of damage to equipment and/or equipment failures within the distribution system.  In Chicago, an early morning cable failure caused 2,500 customers to lose electric power forcing residents to be evacuated to cooling centers.

Background:
Energy Emergency Alert Levels:
With some variations, the electric power industry uses three alert levels to indicate the type of actions initiated by the grid operators to mitigate a deficiency of generation reserves.  The actions taken by grid operators at each Alert Level are for the purpose of avoiding power outages (see definition of terms below).

Alert Level 1 - All available resources in use.
Generators are to prepare for maximum generation
Non-firm sales are curtailed
Alert Level 2 - Load management procedures in effect.
Actions from Alert Level 1
Public appeals to reduce demand
Voltage reductions
Interruption of non-firm loads in accordance with applicable contracts
Demand-side management
Utility load conservation measures
Alert Level 3 - Firm load interruption imminent or in progress.
Actions from Alert Level 2
Interruption of firm load (actual or imminent)

Definition of Terms:
Brown Outs - Referred to as "voltage reductions" by the industry.  Utilities in the Eastern Grid may implement 2 to 10% voltage reductions to decrease demand for generation a corresponding amount.  The voltage reduction is generally transparent to customers but may affect some sensitive electrical equipment.  The benefits from a voltage reduction degrade over time as electrical equipment works harder to overcome the reduction in power.

Interruptible Customers - Some customers have contracts that allow utilities to interrupt service to that customer in exchange for a lower electricity rate.  Utilities will interrupt service to these "non-firm" loads in Alert Level 2.  Utilities frequently refer to this as "voluntary load shedding."

Rotating Blackouts - A controlled interruption of service to firm loads that occurs in Alert level 3.  This is a controlled form of "involuntary load shedding."  Utilities reduce load by disconnecting a block of customers for a period of ½ to 1 hour, at which time service is restored and a new block of customers is disconnected.  In extreme cases, customers may undergo several sequences of outages and restoration of power.  Utilities avoid interruptions of service to critical facilities such as hospitals.

Power Outage - An uncontrolled interruption of electrical service.  This is an uncontrolled form of "involuntary load shedding" that may result from damaged equipment or downed power lines as might occur during a severe storm.  On rare occasions the power outage may result from a "cascading power outage" as occurred in the Northeast in August 2003 where the electric grid becomes unstable and protective switches open to protect power equipment.   (National Infrastructure Coordination Center)

Tropical Activity

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:  At 5:00 am EDT, Wednesday, August 2, 2006, the center of Tropical Storm Chris was located near latitude 18.8 north longitude 62.6 west or about 60 miles northeast of St. Martin.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Puerto Rico and the U.S. and Virgin Islands.

Chris is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.  On this track, the center of Chris will move north of the northernmost Leeward Islands early today, and remain north of  the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this afternoon and evening.  Some of the strong rain bands on the south side of Chris, however, may affect Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands later this afternoon and tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours and Chris could become a Hurricane later today or early tomorrow. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 75 miles from the center.  The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

Chris is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over the Northern Leeward Islands, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and portions of Puerto Rico with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches possible over higher terrain through tomorrow.

Elsewhere, tropical storm formation is not expected through tomorrow.

Eastern Pacific:  At 12:00 am EDT August 2, Tropical Storm Fabio was located near 14.6 north 127.6 west moving towards the west at 14 mph. Fabio has sustained winds near 51 mph. A modest weakening is indicated for the near-term with faster weakening in the long-term as the cyclone encounters stronger shear and a more stable thermodynamic environment.

At 12:00 am EDT August 2, Tropical Storm Gilma with wind speeds near 40 mph was located near 14.6 north 105.7 west, about 400 miles west-southwest of Acapulco Mexico moving toward the west at 6 mph.

Western Pacific: At 11:00 pm EDT August 1, Tropical Storm Prapiroon with wind speeds near 63 mph was located near 18.1 north 115.2 east or approximately 294 miles south-southeast of Hong Kong.   (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

Individual Assistance  and Public Assistance PDAs are ongoing in the state of Misouri.  (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

The National Preparedness Level continues at Level 5 (the highest level).  Preparedness Level 5 means that multiple geographic areas are experiencing major incidents.

Nationally, fire activity was light with 159 new fires reported. Five new large fires were reported: two each in Texas and Oklahoma; and one in Montana.
Eight large fires were contained: one each in South Dakota, Kansas, California, Oklahoma, Montana, and Wyoming; and two in Texas.

Low pressure will continue to move through the western states while a high pressure covers the central and eastern states. The winds over Montana and the Dakotas will diminish while gusty winds persist over Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Drier air will begin to filter through the Great Basin.  (National Interagency Fire Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

FEMA-1656-DR-OH was declared on August 1, 2006 for  Severe Storms, Straight Line Winds, and Flooding. The declaration provides for Individual Assistance to Ashtabula, Geauga, and Lake Counties.  There is no Public Assistance authorized.  All counties in the State of Ohio are eligible to apply for assistance under the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program. (FEMA HQ)